With the Nfl Season a little over 3 months away Im going to breakdown every teams over under and my expectations for them.
I will break a div down each week thats if my schedule and interest from fourm continues. We have lots of time has a group to breakdown teams and share information.
A quick look at this Season Strength of schedule
I will break down Sos with the break down of each team.
2011-2012 Playoff teams
Giants Patriots SanFran Ravens Saints Lions Steelers Packers Broncos Texans Bengals Falcons
Do we see many changes in the 2012-13 Seasons?
New England Patriots
Books have the Over under win total for them Between 11.5 (-110 MGM) - 12.5(-120 LVH) Depends on where u are shopping.
Patriots three losses came to Giants at home and to Bills and Steelers on the Road. With Pats Drawing the easiest Schedule look to them to Continue their Dominance at home facing(Ari,Den,NYJ.Buf,Indy,Hou,SF,Mia).With the Pats facing the NFC West it makes their road games that much easier than it all ready was. (Ten,Bal,Buf,Sea,Stl,NYJ,Mia,Jac). I do not see many challenges for the Patriots this yr .Yes u can can make case for certain matchups but I only see the pats improving from thier 13-3 record. If they can get anything out of this years draft class from (jones,Hightower,Wilson..) their defence must improve. As Bad as the patriots defence looked last yr they were Second only to the top Rated 49ners in a stat that does not get looked at on the box Score. Opponent Yard per point. 19.4yrd per point second again to only the 49ers whos was 20.4.
Dont Forget Bill Bellichick had a short offseason last year due to the lock out.The more time these young players can practise under his direction the better off this team will be.
The addition of Brandon Lloyd can give Brady the deep threat they were lacking last yr.Im not saying he is a top notch receiver but I believe he is a great improvment over Ocho.With the 2 te package , Lloyd and Welker this pats offence will be on many SportCenter highlights. Tough to compare any roster to their record breaking 2007 team but this yrs team has a lot of the peices.
I See the Pats Record no worse than 13-3 and going deep into the playoffs.
Liking Philly this year,im thinking there revamped D will cure alot of last years ills...11-5
don't know if this year is gonna be much different from last. like both teams mentioned hitting the over on the wins. like the steelers to win less than 10.5 as well.
Thanks for the good Work illy, looking forward to more analysis.
Statistically, the Patriots should be very similar in 2012 as they were last year. Offensively they will have no problem putting up 30 + points, and you may see Brady's interceptions drop as well, as defences have to give the deep threat more respect.
Looking at their schedule, it is relatively soft. Their toughest games are @ Baltimore, @ Seattle, @ NY Jets, and Houston and SF at home back to back. Last year the Pats played some terrible quarterbacks during the 2nd half of the season helping them win 8 games to end the year. This years quarterbacks don't seem any more threatening. The best QB's they play are Schaub, Flacco, and Manning (who knows about him). The next best QB might be Hasslebeck in Week 1, so its a pretty easy schedule.
The only thing that hurts them is their SB loss, as historically we see SB losers struggle the next year with injuries, motivation, and other factors associated with a short offseason and coming so close to a championship. I don't expect the Pats to fall into that trap, but its worth considering.
The last thing is its tough to expect them to win MORE than 12 games. There is no margin for error and any major injuries (Brady) kills this bet. Personally, as a die hard Pats fan I expect them to win more than 12 games, but I don't see much value putting my money on the over with such little margin for error
NFL Playoffs last 2 years
5th place in Delivery Man's 2011 Hilton Copycat Contest
Great write up CoverOne, whats your opinion on the Pats defense for next year? what do you think are the strengths/weakness are going to be for next year?
The Pats defense last year wasn't as bad as most think. They gave up a ton of yards but did have a great Yard per point stat and illy noted. So while they gave up yards, they came mostly in the middle of the field and were able to win games by keeping teams out of the end zone. There were no major losses on defense this offseason, and the draft and free agents should help bolster the young core. Against the run they were about average, but I see them being much better this season. They did not give up big plays on the ground, and a healthy Brandon Spikes for a full season will improve the run stop. Against the pass, you have to assume they cant be worse. Belichick had installed a new defense last year during the shortened offseason, but as the season went along you could see them getting better in some areas. Devin McCourty should be better than he played last year, and a healthy Ras I Dowling (2011 draft class) will be back from an injured reserve stint. Their strongest unit is the run defense, but it must be more consistent than it was at times last year.
I'll going to make my own thread to discuss my expectations going into the 2012 season soon, I have my eye on a few teams and I want to get some insights from others.
Thanks for the additional insight CoverOne, wll definitely be stopping in your thread to check it out.