...taking the Giants at +3.5 early and now grabbing NE at -2.5 (BetOnline 1/23 1803 PST)? I havn't even got to the majority of statistical analyisis...I'm just buying numbers? Just for a 1 unit bet...I plan on attacking the Props (Using the strategies in the B.Leonard video...)
Is this a smart play in the end, or am I just paying juice, and overthinking?
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i have giants future. i think the line will go down. i am waiting until that point to take NE on the moneyline. also, NYG +3.5 is a great move. many times the moneyline has tons of value on the Super Bowl. personally, waiting it out and hoping NE line goes down more.
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I believe when you have 10 cents on one side and 20 on the other your break even for the middle is about 6.9%.
the 3 hits 9.5%.
9.5 times you win $195.45
90.5 times you lose $14.55
You're making an average of $5.40 on each wager.
If you let it ride and it settles at 2.5, you have gained 45 cents going on and through 3. So you have a -110 ticket with a true value of -145.
-145 wins 59.1% of the time
59.1 times you win 100
40.9 times you lose -110.
You're making an average of $14.11 per wager.
So holding onto your ticket is much better IF the line stays at 2.5. If you middle, this is the best time, when you don't know what the closer will be. Middling the closer is usually not advantageous because you have more equity in your ticket that has beaten the closer
You want a handicapping tip? Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a bitch, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more. I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice
"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"
Pretty much the only sporting event when betting the favorite ML and the dog side can be +EV. Due to the huge influx of dog ML money, the ML is not as true a derivative of the side as it usually is
Like you said in the video today, its the last football game and its not just about how sharp you are, add in the party and eating etc.... I cant wait to start looking at props. I love some of the comparative props like pass completions vs. some basketball players points.
Lloyd, Thanks very much for your analysis. Something tells me I'll be losing the $14...
Lloyd and Johnny stole my thunder. Couldn't say it any better.
The Only Two Time Finalist in The $90,000 Cantor Football Showdown.
Money management, line shopping and reading the betting markets are just as important as picking the right side.
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You make my head hurt! I hope Amazon has those 3 books you recommended at my door tomorrow so I can keep up. I look forward to figuring out what the hell you are talking about.
Thanks for the info
Darts: 1-1-0 0 units
All great points in here right now. I have future bets on both teams in one of my online accounts, so I feel very fortunate. I'm a big Eli Manning fan and I think he'll keep this game close. If you already have Giants +3.5 it might bode you well to wait for the New England line to come down even more if you're looking to buy back.
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Do you mind me asking what books? Been looking for some good ones.