The South Point Released their Season Wins numbers this past Sunday. Fast forward a few days, and here are the numbers. I show what they are dealing, the vig on the over, and the numeric 'vig adjusted' number. (Atl is 10 with the OVER -100, the UNDER -120, so their actual number is 9.9 vig adjusted).
I also included the number of wins teams had in 2016 and 2015. In 2016 Cin-Wash tied, as did Az-Sea (6-6), so that is why the wins in that year don't average to 8.
Note, these season wins numbers always carry a slight bias to the "over" as the public LOVES betting over. That is why you see the overall average wins at 8.17, not 8, or even 7.95 (figuring in the chance for a tie).
What does that mean? When betting, you likely will be able to spot more good 'under' bets than 'over' bets due to the small bias in the overall lines.
Here are the numbers!
|
|
|
S Wins |
2016 |
2015 |
|
|
|
OVER |
Vig Adj |
Wins |
Wins |
|
Ar |
7.5 |
-125 |
7.65 |
7 |
13 |
|
Atl |
10 |
100 |
9.9 |
11 |
8 |
|
Bal |
9.5 |
105 |
9.35 |
8 |
5 |
|
Buf |
6 |
|
6 |
7 |
8 |
|
Car |
9 |
-120 |
9.1 |
6 |
15 |
|
Chic |
5 |
-125 |
5.15 |
3 |
6 |
|
Cin |
8.5 |
-120 |
8.6 |
6 |
12 |
|
Clev |
4.5 |
105 |
4.35 |
1 |
3 |
|
Dal |
9.5 |
-120 |
9.6 |
13 |
4 |
|
Den |
8.5 |
-120 |
8.6 |
9 |
12 |
|
Det |
8 |
|
8 |
9 |
7 |
|
GB |
10 |
100 |
9.9 |
10 |
10 |
|
Hou |
8.5 |
-125 |
8.65 |
9 |
9 |
|
Ind |
9 |
-105 |
8.95 |
8 |
8 |
|
Jax |
6 |
100 |
5.9 |
3 |
5 |
|
KC |
9 |
-120 |
9.1 |
12 |
11 |
|
LA Ch |
7.5 |
100 |
7.4 |
5 |
4 |
|
LA rams |
5.5 |
-135 |
5.75 |
4 |
7 |
|
Mia |
7.5 |
|
7.5 |
10 |
6 |
|
Min |
8.5 |
|
8.5 |
8 |
11 |
|
NE |
11.5 |
-115 |
11.55 |
14 |
12 |
|
NO |
8.5 |
100 |
8.4 |
7 |
7 |
|
NYG |
9 |
100 |
8.9 |
11 |
6 |
|
NYJ |
5.5 |
-120 |
5.6 |
5 |
10 |
|
Oak |
10 |
-120 |
10.1 |
12 |
7 |
|
Phil |
8.5 |
|
8.5 |
7 |
7 |
|
Pit |
10.5 |
-120 |
10.6 |
11 |
10 |
|
SF |
4.5 |
|
4.5 |
2 |
5 |
|
Sea |
10.5 |
|
10.5 |
10 |
10 |
|
TB |
8 |
|
8 |
9 |
6 |
|
Ten |
9 |
-125 |
9.15 |
9 |
3 |
|
Wash |
7.5 |
-115 |
7.55 |
8 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8.17 |
|
|
|
Action has moved a few numbers. NE opened too low at 11-120, and is now 11.5. Jax opened 5.5 and moved up. Oak opened 9.5 and has been bumped up as well. Clev got no respect at 4, and has been moved to 4.5. I have not seen ANY NFL team lined below 4.5 in many, many years, 4.5 is pretty much the floor for what a terrible team is dealt at.
What do you guys think? What is your best bet based on these numbers?
On the capping front, I have had a tough April, but I LOVE the MLB card today, and the NBA games today and tomorow!
http://bit.ly/1dO56ZY