Since we have the draft coming up, I felt like shifting gears for a minute, especially after losing on the Texas Rangers last night. I wrote a "short story" I wanted to share. Bear in mind some of it is generic and some of it is pretty much common sense, but for the recreational bettors, it might be interesting.
Personally I don't bet very many Super Bowl futures, especially in the off-season. There are several reasons for that, and perhaps the first and foremost is that I really don't want the book to hold my money for nine months. Of course there are exceptions if I find a team or two that might be a reasonable payoff for leaving them $100, but in general, the NFL doesn't offer huge opportunities like baseball often does.
In the NFL not many teams go from worst-to-first, and those are the ones that would offer the real value. Case in point is the Super Bowl odds right now. As you'd expect, New England is favored to win. Again. When the Westgate in Las Vegas opened betting on the 2018 Super Bowl, New England was 6:1, which obviously means on $100 I'd win $500 ($600 less my initial investment). I'd have to ask myself if it's worth that to let them hold my money, and honestly at that price for that team, it might have been.
However, right now they're a mere 3:1 and clearly the value is gone and that's just not worth it. The point there is that it's a fluid market and just like betting on the outcome of games on a daily basis, timing is everything.
Just a cursory look at the AFC finds that after New England, the Steelers are second favorite at a whopping 12:1! That's a huge step, and one that could possibly be worth a small look if for no other reason than the fact that Pittsburgh is likely to at least make the playoffs, and of course then anything can happen and that's half the battle.
There are so many things that will effect these numbers, almost on a weekly basis. A great example is last years' Minnesota Vikings, whose season win total was actually taken off the board when Bridgewater got hurt. As it turns out their defense cashed the "over" tickets in spite of the fact, but you could have taken a ridiculously better number by waiting.
If New England loses the Opening Night game to Kansas City, those odd will be better. If Pittsburgh loses Week One at Cleveland (it's entirely possible) then they'll go from 12:1 to at least 15:1. There are always "ifs". One of last years' contenders for most of the season was the upstart Raiders. Of course that changed when Carr went out with an injury late in the season - and perhaps because of that they're sitting with the Steelers at 12:1 right now. If Oakland (Las Vegas, or whatever they want to be) comes out and wins at Tennessee (I don't think they will, actually) in week one, those odds will drop to 10:1 or better.
People have short memories and tend to only look at what they saw last, rather than the body of work, or the bigger picture. Even little things seem to matter much more to instinctive, emotional bettors.
We don't need to look any further than the aforementioned Vikings. Last year they were a trendy pick before Bridgewater went down,and of course they finished much better than EVERYONE thought. Now, with all the talk about Adrian Peterson, you can get the Vikings to win the 2018 Super Bowl at 25:1, which I happen to think is a bargain. In the first place their only real competition in my opinion to win the NFC North is Green Bay, so there's a reasonable chance they'll be in the playoffs.
Let's do a "what if". Minnesota doesn't have a #1 pick this season (yet) because of the Bradford deal. But let's assume for a minute they make a trade, get into the first round, and take either Dalvin Cook or Joe Mixon. The odds aren't great, but there are always surprise. If that happens, I would bet the very quickly the Vikings odds would drop - and yet, what running back ever really carried his team to a Super Bowl? Remember, step back and look at the big picture.
If you're betting futures, either bet a few bucks on a team you just LIKE, and be prepared to burn the money. But if you're serious, do the work. Look at their schedule. Look at their odds to win their division. Look at the history, because it's not very often a young team with little experience wins the Super Bowl. Case in point, I give you the 2016 Atlanta Falcons, who now DO have experience. Yes, that is an indirect suggestion for a value bet!