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My BOLD Prediction ...

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Thread Starter My BOLD Prediction ...
RJ_Bell
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 17256
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Top 50 Contributor

My Prediction:

Las Vegas will NEVER lose another Super Bowl to the Bettors again!

I can’t know this for sure - but I certainly would bet that I am right.
(well, as long as we settled up within 20 years or so)

Background:

The state of Nevada has required separate accounting on Super Bowl action for 27 years now. Vegas has won (in net) 25 years, with the bettors winning only 2 years.

Bettors won in …
* 1995 (49ers/Chargers) - big favorite that large majority backed plus the “over” cashing.
* 2008 (Giants/NE) - huge underdog winning the game = big Money line payoff.
[once-a-year bettors often don’t understand the spread, and they don’t like the idea of betting more to win less (i.e., favorite ML), so novices disproportionally bet the underdog on the money line]

Here’s the thing … I strongly believe neither scenario would result in the bettors winning (in net) any longer. The reason is PROPS.

At many sportsbooks, OVER HALF the handle is on props. Consider that there are 400+ props offered, and the Vig on them is quite high on average. This combination of diversification and high theoretical hold percentage makes it nearly impossible for sportsbooks to lose overall on props.

Additionally, though it is not widely known, all Super Bowl “Futures” action is included in the annual Super Bowl accounting. This is yet another pool of action that bookmakers will rarely lose on.

Here’s a quote from Nevada sportsbook William Hill to CBS: "The favorite covered. The total went over. All the popular props cashed."

Very true – and still Nevada sportsbooks held nearly 8% of the overall handle! A child picking from a hat laying 11-10 would only lose 4.76% over the long run.

And that’s why I don’t see any reasonable way Las Vegas will ever lose another Super Bowl to the bettors. It’s my recommendation that you bet accordingly.

RJ Bell - Pregame.com Founder & CEO | Twitter: @RJinVegas

TGOS
Joined: 11/30/2014
Posts: 1568
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Top 500 Contributor

VEGAS GOT MURDERED $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
PATRIOTS COVER, PATRIOTS MONEYLINE
AND THE OVER ALL IN THE SAME GAME :)
THEY GOT BITCH SLAPPED RJ, KABOOOM

ABOUT TIME THE PUBLIC GETS A SWEEET
PAYDAY! AND UR RIGHT, THEY WILL GET
IT BACK, BUT DAMN DOESNT FEEL GOOD
TO WIN? IN OVERTIME, BRADY HAD ONE
THING IN MIND, TOUCHDOWN & GOT IT!

BOL TGOS

               PREMIUM PIX: tgosystems@yahoo.com

  KING MIX'S "NBA CASH COW"  HALFIES, QTRS & STRAIGHTS 
 (NBA HALFIES)  *581-408-25  +123.20 UNITS SINCE CHRISTMAS :)
 (NBA STRAIGHTS + 3-5 PT BUY-UP/DOWN) *278-147-3 +230.18 UN
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(THUMP'N THURSDAY) STRAIGHTS  *5-2 +9.55 UN / HFS PASSED
 (FUNKY FRIDAY)  STRAIGHTS *1-0 +3 UNITS / HALFIES PASSED
 DUNDALK, THE CLIPS & CORKIE CITY ALL GETTER DONE YO!


 

mindpower
Joined: 06/23/2016
Posts: 2155
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I was at The Nugget playing poker Sunday night, the poker room at the Nugget is 10 feet away from the cash cage.

1 hour after the game I walked over to the sportsbook to cash my ticket, there were 50 people in line. I went to the room and fell asleep.

I went back to play poker at midnight and there was a line at the cashier's cage to cash tickets because the book was closed. There were people in line until 3am.

I went over there at 4am and I still had to wait behind someone cashing a damn ticket!

We will never see that again in our lifetime.

It was a once in a lifetime game.

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
CFB4245148.28-733.00
MLB1614053.33-114.00
NBA5840059.181405.00
NFL5061045.05-1838.00
Doughboy
Joined: 03/05/2007
Posts: 17853
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                                 Great stuff Mr. Bell as all can see...

                                Image result for berry berry

                               ...props been berry berry good too me!

                     " Money can't buy love, but it sure can rent some snappy affection."       Related image                                                                         

                                                                                                                                             

batnthehatch
Joined: 04/07/2010
Posts: 835
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Didn't in 1989 the open was San Francisco -5 vs Cincinnati, then they moved it to San Francisco -3. Final 20-16 San Francisco...almost every ticket won. I'm supprised someone did take out a transformer, like they did in Vegas with the Wisconsin Badgers game.

people premium picks
Joined: 07/18/2014
Posts: 1781
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It was a celebration of the "public lean"...we say it repeatedly ...Public wins all the time"...it was quite a night.....hope all did well......the people rest...gl....p3

iceman61
Joined: 12/13/2011
Posts: 3955
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And more sportsbooks being built as we speak the casssssssssh cow continues to milk the public, I won on the game, lost the total, and lost on props, so they beat me 2-3 ways, oh well we love it anyways , the hustle, the hot waitresses showing half there fits, the action u can't lose it is what it is.

lets go vikings superbowl or bust.

Justlearning
Joined: 09/02/2014
Posts: 100
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VERY good write and explanation RJ. You are 100 % correct.  You are looking out for the players, very much appreciated.  

Stew
Joined: 04/23/2008
Posts: 41957
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RJ_Bell


At many sportsbooks, OVER HALF the handle is on props. 

I was very surprised to see this. Just wouldn't have thought it was that high. 

I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!

 

enduro93
Joined: 10/18/2006
Posts: 1159
Professional
Not Ranked

What I did not see mentioned was the tease action.  Unless you had some terrible lines/luck you cashed every tease ticket.  I know I did.

Money isn't the only thing........ but it's way ahead of whatever's in second place!
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