You're probably right Vito. You're a good capper and admittedly I'm a Joe shmo public casual bettor.
A few more thoughts tho:
ATL improved on D, but shutting down a gassed and one dimensional Packer team playing from behind doesn't make the Falcons a great Defense all of a sudden.
Houston played great D in the Div round at NE and Brady had a rough outing... Pats still dropped 34.
Against the steelers, NE left 5pts on the board (settling for 3 not 7 on first drive, + missed xtra pt) and went vanilla and didn't need to do much while in command in the second half... they still dropped 36. In the Superbowl vs an offense they know can score big, the Pats will be aggressive offensively vs an ATL D ranked like 27th in defensive DVOA. (And Pats D is 16th I think, so ATL will get theirs too.)