Hopefully we get a winning week and a winning regular season.. I understand some people just bet the 3* top play, which has hit at an excellent rate this season. But I'm disappointed in my overall record this season. Last two years it was near 59% on over 250+ documented plays, but this year it's been very subpar. Got to do better, it should have been a much bigger year.
I will post my write ups on these games hopefully by Tuesday night.
3* Seattle Seahawks -9.5 -110 *LOSER*
Yes, I know it’s not considered “sharp” to lay over a touchdown in a divisional road game. This is a rare time where I will do it. To be blunt, I can’t see how the 49ers are going to move the ball against this Seattle defense. When Colin Kaepernick was in his prime, with a stacked team around him, he struggled mightily against this Seattle defense. In his career, he has 2 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, a slightly above 50% completion percentage, and 133 passing yards per game. The Seahawks have beaten the 49ers by double digit points SEVEN times in a row. When looking at the matchups, I do not see one matchup advantage that the 49ers have. On offense, their best player, Carlos Hyde is out. Their best receiver, Torrey Smith, is out. Their best tight end, Vance Mcdonald, is out. Their best lineman, Joe Staley, is questionable. This is a team with arguably the league’s worst offensive personnel when healthy. On defense, slot corner Jimmie Ward is out, who is the only player on the roster capable of coming close to covering Doug Baldwin. Jimmy Graham is a huge matchup nightmare for this 49ers defense as well, which is last in the NFL in points allowed per game. Chip Kelly’s offense has not been effective against Seattle, as he was blown out once in Philadelphia, and blown out once in San Francisco against the Seattle team. The Seahawks are coming off a loss, and need this game to secure the 3 seed in the NFC, and potentially the 2 seed and a first round bye. It always helps that this Seattle team typically responds very well after losses. The 49ers are 4-11 against the spread this season, 2-11 against teams not named the Rams. When looking at the personnel matchups in this game, I can’t envision a scenario where the 49ers are going to be able to move the ball against this Seattle defense. The Seattle offense should do more than enough in this game, which should give Seattle their 8th double digit victory in a row against this 49ers team.
2* Browns/Steelers UNDER 44 -110 *LOSER*
I think this line drops by a few points. The projected matchup in this game is likely Cody Kessler against Landry Jones. The Pittsburgh defense has been playing very well recently, allowing less than 20 points in five of their last six games, while the Browns average 16 points per game on the season, which is 31st in the NFL. Landry Jones will likely be the quarterback for the majority of the game for the Steelers. With the Steelers resting players on offense, it’s likely that Jones weapons will be Eli Rogers, Fitzgerald Touissant, Jesse James, and Cobi Hamilton. Not exactly the ideal playmakers you want around one of the league’s worst quarterbacks. There is also a possibility of rain and snow for this game. The Steelers should be conservative in this one, as they are just trying to get out of the game without any injuries, since they are locked into the 3 seed. I am not totally convinced that the Browns coaching staff will be overly aggressive either, with a loss earning them the number 1 pick, and choice of franchise player in a clear rebuilding project of a team. I refuse to over think this game. In a matchup of Kessler vs Jones, with limited playmakers, 44 is way too high of a number.
1* Baltimore Ravens +3 -130 *LOSER*
Line is way off IMO. I have the Ravens rated as 2.5 points better on a neutral field. The Bengals are left with very few weapons against this elite ranked Ravens defense. They likely won’t have Jimmy Smith, which is a big loss, but the Bengals are a team that does not challenge the Ravens with top end pass catchers. The Bengals are without AJ Green, Eifert, and Jeremy Hill has been playing hurt. They have reshuffled their offensive line in an effort to scout younger players at new positions. The Ravens are a very prideful team that is not going to give up on the game because they got eliminated from the playoffs last week. This could be Steve Smith’s last game of his career, which should be able to keep this Ravens team motivated in sending him out the right way. Also, remember, that in a projected low scoring game, field goal kicking can be crucial. The Bengals have Randy Bullock, their second kicker of this season and the man who missed the game winning field goal for them last week. The Ravens have Justin Tucker, the best kicker in the NFL.
1* Oakland Raiders +2.5 -110 *LOSER*
The Raiders match up pretty well against the Broncos team, which has imploded recently, bottoming out last week. The Broncos offense can’t run, can’t pass protect, and have no other weapons outside of DT and Manny Sanders. Their “dream crusher” game was last week against the Chiefs, which eliminated them from playoff contention. The Raiders are playing for a first round bye, and have a huge mismatch in this game, which is their offensive line against the Broncos porous run defense. In the first matchup between these two teams, the Raiders ran the ball down the Broncos throat, which I suspect they will be able to do in this game. When your starting quarterback gets hurt, typically the rest of the team takes it upon themselves to elevate their game, and I think that emotion will likely be able to carry Matt McGloin in this game and will require him to not be forced to do too much. The Broncos may potentially start Paxton Lynch, who is nowhere near ready to be a starter in this league. He’s shown a lack of accuracy and pocket presence in his limited action so far this season. And he likely won’t be done in any favors with RT Donald Stephenson having to block Khalil Mack, which is a HUGE mismatch for this Broncos team. Regardless of who starts at quarterback for both teams, the Raiders have far superior personnel and matchup advantages.
1* New Orleans Saints +7.5 -125 *WINNER*
The Falcons have been shredded at home by almost every single quarterback they have faced. The Falcons have been far from dominant, going 4-3 at home in shootout type of games. Well, Drew Brees' saints offense has scored on 14 of their last 22 possesions against much better defensive teams (Tampa and Arizona). Getting over a touchdown is just too much value, especially since a back door cover is always a real possibility having Brees at quarterback and Atlanta's defense defending the pass. Both defenses match up very poorly against the opposing offenses, but having the hook at over a touchdown is worth firing on in this likely shootout.
1* Arizona Cardinals -6.5 -110 *WINNER*
The Rams have failed to cover the spread in all six of Jared Goffs starts. His lack of pocket presence and accuracy under pressure is a major concern against one of the leagues blitz heaviest teams who will be without their top wideout, Kenny Britt. The Rams are bottom three in early down success rate on passing and running offense, while the Cardinals are top ten in both categories on defense. We know that David Johnson is a stud and has a plus matchup against whoever he faces, and The Rams pass defense has begun to collapse, allowing 16 touchdown passes over their last 6 games, while Carson Palmer has multiple touchdown passes in 6 of his last 8 games. This cardinals group is a prideful group that will play hard until the end of the season, as shown against the Seahawks. Realistically, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Rams fail to score double digits in this one, as I don't see one positive matchup for this Rams offense against the Arizona defense.
1* Raiders/Broncos UNDER 41 -120 *WINNER*
Too add onto what I wrote about the Oakland side pick.. I don't expect the Broncos to have much continuity on offense switching quarterbacks throughout the game, and the personnel on this team is awful at the moment. I don't anticipate Oakland trying to threaten the Denver secondary often.. I expect them to lean heavily on their run game. Can't see a McGloin/Lynch game getting to 41 when Oaklands gameplan is very likely to be ultra conservative.