2016 NFL Record:
68 – 57 @ 54% for +5.3 Units
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Week 14
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#3: San Diego Chargers +1
I know the Chargers are traveling all the way from the West Coast for a 1PM EST game, but remember, the Panthers spent about a week-and-a-half out West, battling OAK and SEA the last two weeks. They’re almost like a ‘west-coast’ team as well for this one J In any case, I’ll back the ‘better’ team in this one. San Diego has been very unlucky early in the year, but they are a ‘playoff caliber’ squad. Panthers are not. Plus without Keuchly, the best LB in the league, this defense stands no chance against Rivers and Co. I like the Chargers to prevail here.
#4: Cleveland Browns +5.5
If Browns are going to win a game this year, this has to be the game. They are coming off a BYE. They are getting RGIII back with two full weeks to practice and prepare. They have healthy weapons on offense with Coleman and Pryor using the BYE week to rest up. And Cleveland is facing Cincy, Hue Jackson’s former team. I expect the Browns will be very motivated in this one, as no NFL team wants to finish winless on the year. Besides, this is a weak Cincy squad they’re facing. The D is terrible, there is zero pass-rush, and without AJ Green and Bernard, the passing options are limited for the offense. The Bengals are off a home rout but don’t be fooled, that was against a regressing Eagles team. Prior to that, Cincy was 1-5-1. Public is heavily on the Bengals, but I believe it’s a mistake. Browns get their first, and very possibly last, win in this one.
#5: Buffalo Bills +2.5
It’s going to be cold and snowy in Buffalo on Sunday, which hopefully provides the home team an advantage. The #1 rushing team is going to do their thing of course and with both Watkins and Woods healthy, Bills should be even more prolific offensively. Steelers have been playing well, but this will be their toughest challenge since Dallas 4 weeks ago. I know Buffalo lost last week, but prior to that 4th quarter, they looked like a more dominant team than Oakland. I expect them to bounce back at home here as both team are desperate for a win. My model has this one at -2.1 BUF so value’s on the home team.
#6: Miami Dolphins +2
Last week I described in the breakdowns that Baltimore’s #1 ranked run-D would make it really tough on the Dolphins’ offense. Well, I expect a much better showing against Arizona’s 11th ranked run-D. The Cardinals are elite in the pass-game, but against the run, they’re not that imposing. And that’s why this is a good matchup for the home team. Besides, this Cardinals team is priced like a ‘good’ team, which they’re not. This is a bottom-10 team in the league, which is still getting lines based on their ‘name recognition’ from the last few years. If you disagree with me, then ask yourself this question: “Do ‘good’ teams typically have a winning or losing record on the road?” Cardinals are 4-2 at home but only 1-4 on the road this season, with their only road-win against the lowly Niners. Playing in the 1 PM EST time won’t help. I’ll grab the undervalued home team in this one.
#7: Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 -120
Sure the Jags are on a 7-game losing streak, but Vikings are 1-6 in that span. Both teams are 2-5 ATS in that span. Clearly, the Vikes are way over-valued here. Their D is without their best player (Harrison Smith) and their O is without theirs (no…not AP or Bridgewater….Center Joe Berger of course!). Jacksonville sports an 11th ranked D, so I like their chances of holding this terrible Vikings offense to few points. Value is with a home underdog here.
#8: Philadelphia Eagles +2
Home underdogs galore this week! Sure the Eagles haven’t played well recently but this goes back to the whole ‘Buying Low and Selling High’ point. This is a team that is 4-1 at home. They’re getting both Mathews and Matthews back this week. And they’re facing a divisional opponent in a ‘revenge’ spot. Philly was -3 @ WAS when they met in October. They’re not an underdog at home. I think you know where the value lies.
#9: Atlanta Falcons -5.5
I know Julio Jones is out (or going to be a decoy) but even still, we have a top-5 team going up against a bottom-5 team here. Atlanta needs this win if they’re to make the playoffs, and I expect them to play well. Fading Goff and Fisher is never a bad idea.
#10: New York Giants +3.5
As good as Dallas is, they shouldn’t be laying over a FG in a divisional matchup on the road. Giants are 5-1 at home and my model has them at +1 in this one. There’s too much value to pass up here.
Good Luck
Breakdowns:
DEN @ TEN (no line)
Some books have this one around -1 TEN, but it all depends on whether or not Sieman will be confirmed as a starter. Kubiak said he’ll reveal it after Saturday’s walk-through. It’s an important factor of course, as this Denver offense is much more efficient with Sieman behind center. But the Denver D, fully healthy, isn’t a unit I’d fade right now. The Titans do have a better shot than most, due to their running game and the ability of Mariota to extend plays with his legs. If Sieman starts, I’d lean DEN. If Lynch starts, I’d lean TEN.
Lean: TEN (if Lynch starts) and DEN (if Sieman does)
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HOU @ IND -6.5
This Houston team is so hard to back. Their offense is totally inefficient (31st in the league. Only the Rams are worse), their D is regressing (without Joseph this week), and they have one of the worst special team groups in the league. Colts’ 4th ranked ST’s could do some damage in this one. Indy is on a short week, but they seem to be a much stronger team at this point. Colts do have some injury issues on D though which is worth monitoring.
Lean: IND -6.5
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CHI @ DET -7.5
No way should the Lions lay this much in a divisional matchup but it’s virtually impossible for me to back Barkley on the road. Plus Lions are getting back Levy for this one.
PASS
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NYJ @ SF -3
How can anyone lay points with 49ers, especially a FG? How can anyone back Petty on the road? If your answer is the same for both questions, you know what to do.
PASS
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SEA @ GB +3
Not fading a top-3 team on the road here when I have to lay a FG in Lambeau. Easy pass. Packers are too inconsistent to back them against a top-3 team.
PASS
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