First off, shoutout to the pregame username "HARDCORE USMC". He told me in last weeks thread that he donates his betting winnings to www.stopsoldiersuicide.org and that playing my 3* plays have contributed to two donations to them. You are a first class person for doing that and the world deserves more people like you. Thank you for the great contributions you make to society.
Second off, my 3* plays have been on fire, but other plays have been well below my standard. Not happy about it at all and I gotta do a better job. extremely confident I will do a better job. Gonna keep working my ass off to provide winners because the results of my plays outside the 3* ones have been unacceptable to me. Last year I ended up winning 22+ units with the game of the weeks going 10-11 and I've hit at a very high percentage over the past two years so I am confident it's just a slump. Thanks for all the kind comments after this week guys, realize I won another big one and that's what most care about but I gotta do better on the smaller ones.
3* Tennessee Titans +5.5 -110 *LOSER*
First off, I think the Titans are underrated by Vegas. This is likely because of their atrocious ATS record over the past three seasons. But this season, they have proven to be close to an average NFL team, which is a huge step up from the past few seasons. I have the Chargers only rated as a slightly better team then the Titans, and the Chargers poor home field advantage is only worth about 2 points. I think this line should be in the 3 to 3.5 range, so I will gladly take plus 5.5, and I do expect this line to close lower. These teams are pretty identical statistically. They are very close in YPP, but the Titans have some advantages in early down success rate and also successful third down rates, which are the biggest factors in winning games aside from turnovers which are unpredictable for the most part. The Chargers are the 23rd ranked run offense and 17th ranked passing offense in early down success rate, while the Titans are 11th in early down success rate run defense and 15th in passing defense. The Chargers make up for the slightly below average success on early downs by having a top end quarterback on third downs, but the Titans third down success ranking on defense is almost identical to the Chargers third down success rate on offense. This defense has over achieved under legendary defensive coordinator Dick Lebeau despite poor cornerback play from their corners opposite Jason McCourty. The Chargers are dealing with the potential absence of their top wide out Travis Benjamin, and Tyrell Williams and Hunter Henry are also banged up and Henry admitted he is playing at less then 100%. Rivers is gonna have success, but I don't think he will have the monster blow up game that I expect him to need to have in order to cover this spread. The reason I think Rivers will need that type of game is because of the success I anticipate the Titans offense to have. This offense has scored 26+ points in four straight games, games where Marcus Mariota has had a 10 to 1 TD/INT ratio. They score touchdowns on 72% of their red zone trips (4th in the league, San Diego is 20th) and do this behind their dominate running game. The Titans EDSR on early downs for run offense is 4th, and 14th for passing downs, while the Chargers defense is middle of the pack for both of those categories. If you are successful on early downs, third downs are more manageable and you are more likely to convert them, obviously. The Titans are 3rd in the NFL on 3rd down rushing success, while the Chargers are 27th, which means that on critical third down obvious running situations, the Titans dominate the LOS while the Chargers tend to not be able to come up with the big stop. The Chargers defense will likely be without ILB Jatavis Brown and possibly their other ILB Denzel Perryman, and they are already giving up an AFC high amount of receptions and receiving yards to running backs, which is something the Titans are more then capable of exposing with Demarco Murray. Their is line value in the Titans for this game and I am expecting a toss up type of game, so I will gladly take the points and run in this game.
2* Denver Broncos PK -110 *LOSER*
The Raiders last season went 1-7 SU against playoff teams. This season, they are 0-2 SU against two potential playoff teams (KC/Atlanta). This team has a lot of hope for the future, but I don't know if they are disciplined enough to win a big game yet (the biggest they've had in years). This team set an NFL record for penalties last week and the defense has constantly been out of position throughout the season. The Broncos are third in YPP differential, and the Raiders are 25th. In big games, I usually always lean towards the elite defense instead of the elite offense. If we make that matchup a draw, I think the Broncos offense has some edges against the Oakland defense. They are a disciplined offense that doesn't make a ton of mistakes. They have plus match ups at wideout against the raiders corners, who will likely be without CB Sean Smith and weren't playing very good to begin with. Booker is a very solid prospect at RB and I don't see a huge difference in him and CJA, in fact, booker was splitting carries with CJA before the injury. The Raiders have won a lot of toss up games against below average teams, and are 1-2 at home with their one win being against s Chargers team that collapsed in the last two minutes of the game. In a big game, I'm trusting the super bowl champions over a Raiders team that has not proven they can beat top ranked teams.
1* Cowboys/Browns OVER 48 -120 *LOSER*
The Browns have quietly been one of the top "over teams in the NFL". The last seven games they have played have resulted in totals of 45, 54, 51, 46, 54, 48, 59. The Browns should get dominated in this game by the Cowboys offensive line. I'm not sure on the number now but a few weeks ago I saw a stat that in games where a team rushes for 140+ yards, the over is hitting at a 75% clip. I can't fathom a scenario where the Cowboys don't run all over this Browns run defense that ranks 25th in early down rushing defense success rate, and ranks 31st in rushing defense yards per game. The Cowboys defense came into this season depleted, and has gotten more depleted with injuries to safety Barry Church and cornerback Morris Claiborne. I can't see the Browns defense being able to get any pass rush or any type of run defense going against this elite Cowboys offensive line, and that will be especially helpful in the red zone where we need touchdowns instead of field goals. The Browns quarterbacks have actually been a pretty decent when given time, and they should have it to find Pryor and Barnidge, who both have plus matchups against the Dallas injury depleted secondary. They also likely get back Corey Coleman, who is a home run hitter and has a plus matchup against the Dallas secondary as well. The Browns offense should be able to do just enough against an average and injury depleted Cowboys defense. Missed the better number earlier in the week but still good for a 1*
1* Atlanta Falcons -3.5 -120 *WINNER*
The Bucs played an insane 85 defensive snaps on sunday.. And now have a quick turn around to play on a Thursday against the best offense in the NFL YPP wise. In YPP differential this season, Atlanta is ranked 1st, while Tampa is ranked 31st. The bucs have one of the worst home field advantages in the NFL and playing in the warm Tampa weather for this dead tired defense may actually be a negative for them. The Bucs rank 31st in quarterback hits and have allowed the most 20 and 40+ yard pass plays in the NFL. Matt Ryan leads the NFL in 20 and 40+ yard completions. In order to keep this tired Bucs defense, that isn't good when fully rested, the Bucs will need to run the ball to control the clock.. which likely won't happen because they have a poor offensive line, and are down to their fourth and fifth string running backs. Atlanta also has early season revenge on their mind so focus shouldn't be an issue in this divisional game. Look for Atlanta to up the pace in tonight's game and attack this tired defense, that will wear down as the game goes along IMO.
1* Bills/Seahawks UNDER 44 -120
two teams that offensive identity is running the football. The Bills are likely to not have much success passing the ball (32nd in passing offense EDSR), and the Seahawks are 4th in the NFL for EDSR in run defense. Buffalo has been an "over" team this season which has inflated the total but this matchup against the Seattle defense is not good for them at all. Seattle is also used to going against mobile quarterbacks in practice and has historically done very well against them (Look at the results they had against Kaep when he was in his prime). The Seattle offense has been broken since the Wilson injury, mostly due to the lack of a running threat he has become, which especially hurts them in the read option game. 20-13 type game coming.
1* Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 -125 *WINNER*
Jags are a decent team against the run and KC is without spencer ware. KC is without Smith, small downgrade going to Foles. The Jags have one very, very good young corner in Ramsey going against the Chiefs only good wideout, Jeremy Maclin, who also happens to be hobbled. The Jags are excellent at covering tight ends with Telvin Smith and Myles Jack, so they can contain Travis Kelce. Don't see the firepower for kc to cover a spread higher then a td. KC defense is overrated IMO and Jacksonville can attack that with ARob and Hurns. Also, Jacksonville has extra rest coming off an humulitiaing loss on TNF, and just changed OC's, so I think the situation favors us in this one. Worth a 1* shot with Jacksonville
1* Titans/Chargers OVER 46.5 -110 *WINNER*
Many of the reasons from my write up. Rivers will get his but I think Titans score a solid amount and cover.
1* Steelers/Ravens UNDER 46.5 -110 *WINNER*
Steelers will have specific shotgun based gameplan to get ball out of Bens hands on quick passes. Ben's home/road splits are staggering and in 8 career games returning from injury he has a 12/11 td to INT ratio. Ravens offense has been a disaster recently.. low scoring divisional game coming.