YTD
3-3 (-.6 Units)
What I learned today from watching the 5 games I played....
I was reminded football is a game of momentum and if you have it, you better keep it, and if you don't you better figure out how to get it. It has a snowball effect that once given away or taken, is very difficult to regain. No other outcome in sports, in my opinion, is influenced by momentum swings more than football. Momentum changes due to turnovers have the most impact in my opinion. But how do you handicap for the unknown, random-luck (pun intended) turnover? Direct scores from the defense yields the biggest emotional impact and momentum shifter. My gut feeling is defensive scoring is up this year league wide, but I'll have to investigate that further. With the live Sunday night game in progress and Monday night game upcoming I counted 7 direct defensive TD's this week. I have to think that is a bit of an outlier.
Another momentum influencer is missed FG's and X-tra Points. The PK from TB cost his team 4 points today, and after missing a FG the Rams went right down and scored. You could see the deflation in TB right after that and the infused energy in the Rams and their subsequent drive for a TD. If I was TB I'd be looking through the Rolodex and I would look no further than Robbie Gould.
Another momentum killer is that yellow hankie. A false start penalty on the play just before Jameis Winston, and I'll get to him also, fumbled for a scoop and score for the Rams. TB was ahead, in command and driving and the next thing you know it's 1st and 15 and then the 6 the other way on the fumble....all because of a false start. Speaking of Jameis Winston, is it me or does this guy just continue to overthrow receivers?
....The Colts won today IN SPITE of Andrew Luck and his 2 turnovers, which directly gave SD 10 points. Yes I know his offensive line is horrible, but he is as good a turnover machine as Jay Cutler. I may have to pencil him in for an automatic 3-6 points against going forward.
....onto other thoughts....KC had what, 5 INT's and didn't have the game in hand until late in the 4th? That's more anomaly than ineptness on the part of the KC offense. Although they can be pedestrian and conservative they did have a TD called back and ruled a touchback on what I thought was a very questionable fumble into the end zone. It looked to me like the runner hit the pylon with the ball while still having secure possession....
....plenty of yellow laundry by the Bengals that kept Denver drives alive and leading to scores. This game shifted on momentum because of Cincinnati defensive penalties. Another glimpse in this game tells me Marvin Lewis doesn't trust Andy Dalton to win the game. Trailing by 2 with a 2nd and 1 at the Denver 15 he became conservative playing for the FG instead of trying to score a TD. I realize Lewis isn't thinking about covering the number, but this type of play calling tells your offense, "we are playing not to lose it here." Very different psychology than what Del Rio did in the first week with the Raiders going for 2 and the win instead of the tie against New Orleans....
....Blake Bortles has no touch on the football. Passes that need to be dropped in softly with touch between defenders is not his strong suit. He's going to have to learn how to "take a little off" the football.
Anyway, I'll take the 60% day and the move closer to square and move on to next week. Remember, it's a marathon and not a sprint!