Week 3 Plays:
2016 NFL Record:
12 – 10 @ 0% for +1.0 Units
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#1: UNDER 40.5 HOU/NE (Won)
#2: Top NFL Play for Week 3 - $5 - Click HERE to Join IN
#3: Tennessee Titans -2
#4: Jacksonville Jaguars +1
#5: Miami Dolphins -9.5
#6: Seattle Seahawks -9.5
Good Luck
Week 3 Breakdowns:
DEN @ CIN -3.5
It’s -3 @ -125/-130 juice right now, so clearly going to -3.5 looks like. Remember, Denver is a world champ and is 2-0 (both SU and ATS) to start the season, so what gives? Well for one, Broncos will be without Ware who is out injured. But more importantly, it’s Siemian’s first road start as a NFL QB. Is he up to the task? Denver is a public team right now, so I think the line move indicates that some sharp $ doesn’t think so. I’m not so sure either. It’s one thing to be at home where the crowd stays quiet when the offense is on the field. It’s a different game when you’re in a loud hostile environment. So far, Siemian ranks 28th in QBR with 1:3 TD to INT ratio on the season. Take into account that his RT Donald Stephenson is out for this one as well, and there’s a reason why Cincy is being listed as a ‘better’ team in this game. I agree.
Lean: CIN -3.5
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OAK @ TEN -1.5
This line opened at PK but has quickly moved to the current number. What’s interesting is that Titans were +2.5 in the initial spread release, a full 4-points off from where they are now. I think the bookmakers are making an adjustment here as clearly this Titans team is better than most thought. Remember, they had a 10-point halftime lead in week 1 against the Vikings and then held Detroit to only 15 points on a way to a comeback win in week 2. Now they get the worst defense in the league (through 2 weeks of course) at home. Another factor to consider is the fact that the Raiders are playing in the 1 PM EST time-slot, a spot they haven’t done very well in historically. If the Titans can run the ball successfully as they want to do every game this season (OAK is 28th against the run), then this could be a long day for the Raiders.
Lean: TEN -1.5
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ARZ @ BUF +4
This line was BUF +2.5 in the pre-season, so you can see an adjustment here. This is a significant one since it crosses a key number of 3. A few things to consider here. Bills have had 10-days to prepare for this one but they are coming off a week where they’ve fired their offensive coordinator, after the offense put up 31 points. Go figure! I’ve spoken last week about the fact that I just don’t see the players rallying around Rex the way they had in seasons past. I truly think he’s either on the cusp or maybe already has lost the locker room. There’s also a lot of pressure on Rex Ryan to turn this season around, so this one will potentially be make-it or break-it game. One thing to keep in mind is that the Bills lost by one score in each of their first two games: by 6 @ BAL and by 6 vs NYJ. Arizona of course showed everyone last week that they’re still one of the best teams in the league as they dismantled the Bucs with ease. Of course the public will be all over them in this matchup, and they are with over 80% on them. The spread though dropped from -5 (opener) to -4.5 to now -4 as of this writing. I’m even seeing -3.5 at Pinny, the most reputable sportsbook for sharpies. Part of this is the fact that Buffalo is a home-underdog, and especially early in the season, that’s where the value lies. Part of it has to do with the fact that a significant change like firing Roman could rally the team, and get them to perform above expectations, especially in the short-term. A simplified offensive game plan, a 10 day rest week for the Bills, and Arizona’s first game on the road. Could we see an upset?
Lean: BUF +4
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BAL @ JAX +1.5
Another home underdog here, albeit a small one. Jags did well as an underdog in week 1 but they got destroyed on the road last week. Now the question is, can they win/cover at home this time around? Let’s remember that Baltimore barely scored 13 points on a bad Bills team at home and needed a Josh McCown injury to come back from 20-down @ Cleveland last week. Baltimore is getting Dumervil back this week though not sure if he’ll play the full slate of snaps on D. Ravens’ D has looked ‘good’ so far this season but they’ve only faced against CLE and BUF, two offensive dreads. Jags have some firepower on offense, though that has yet to materialize. Is this week the day it clicks for this squad?
Lean: JAX +1.5
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CLE @ MIA -9.5
Miami almost won @ SEA and @ NE in two consecutive weeks, as they’ve lost by single digits each time. Now they’ll take on the worst team in the league, starting their rookie QB, and missing their top wide-out Coleman. By all accounts, including his own coaches, Kessler is not ready. Sure we watched Bill Belichick work some magic with an unproven rookie on Thursday night, but Cleveland doesn’t have close the talent that Pats do.
Lean: MIA -9.5
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DET @ GB -7
Green Bay’s home opener this week and their 1st game out of 4 straight at home. It’s interesting to note that last year, the Lions won a close one in Lambeau early in the season, and then almost won at home in the rematch (Hail Mary!). An issue for Detroit is that injuries are beginning to sap them of talent. Ziggy Ansah, their premier pass-rusher is out, and DeAndre Levy is most likely to miss this game as well. Of course Green Bay is without their best corner, as Sam Shields is still dealing with a concussion. We could see a shoot-out in this one. This one feels like too many points.
Lean: DET +7
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MIN @ CAR -7
Bradford on the road is more likely to revert to his old self than to the guy that looked so efficient against the Packers last week. Vikings really only have one offensive weapon left, and that’s Diggs. If Carolina takes him away (double team?), Bradford will revert to his self where he barely throws more than 5 yards down the field on each attempt. Hard to see this Vikings offense keep up with the Panthers on the road.
Lean: CAR -7
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SF @ SEA -9.5
In the pre-season this spread was -14 Seattle. It’s 4.5 points lower now, and below key numbers 10 and 14. That’s a pretty significant shift. Seattle almost lost to MIA and did lose @ LAR, but both of those were teams with strong D-lines. San Fran is much weaker in that department, and that should allow Wilson more time to make plays. I think Seattle is ready to breakout offensively soon and this could very well be this week.
Lean: SEA -9.5
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LAR @ TB -5.5
This one opened at -1 TB in the preseason, so this is another huge over-reaction here. I’m not even sure why the Rams are this big of a dog. They are coming off a huge win against Seattle in their home opener in LA, so I guess a let-down is possible. They do have to travel all the way to the East coast, though they play in the 4 PM EST slot not 1 PM. Regardless, this one feels like too many points. Winston was exposed last week @ Arizona, and I’d expect a similarly strong performance out of the Rams’ unit in week 3.
Lean: LAR +5.5
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PIT @ PHI +3.5
Philly beat CLE and CHI, two of the bottom-2 teams in the league so clearly they’re not getting any respect from the bookmakers with this line. Still, this is a team that has played really well the first two weeks. Philly is on a short week and with a rookie QB at the helm, even 1 day less for rest/preparation could be an issue. I can’t fade a home-dog this early in the season but this game is an easy pass IMO
PASS
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NYJ @ KC -3
KC lost to Houston last week, a team that looked absolutely horrendous on Thursday Night. Still, this is the NFL, and no team is truly as bad nor as good as they might look in one week. I think the Chiefs have a chance to bounce-back here. Jets might be top-10 defensively against the run but they’re been pretty awful against the pass so far (rank 29th in efficiency). Reid could spread them out and utilize a quick-hitting passing gamelan to move the ball in this one. On the other side, I think the Chiefs could have an easier time defensively. All three of the Jets top WR’s are banged up, though all will play I’d assume. Even less than optimal health could be an issue on the road in such a hostile environment. Jets’ bandwagon is filling up fast but the Chiefs are still a better team to me and they’re at home.
Lean: KC -3
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SD @ IND -2.5
Before the season started this line was -5.5 Colts. Now it’s significantly lower. The Chargers will be without Allen, Woodhead, and even possibly Gates. The Colts could be getting back their best CB in Davis. The perception out there is that Indy is significantly worse than San Diego. Not sure about ‘much worse’ but they are. My one concern is that the Chargers are missing so many key weapons and the other one is that the spread is below 3 now. No value unless you like Indy.
PASS
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CHI @ DAL -7
The loss of Cutler could actually be a good thing for the Bears, but the fact that they’ll be without key defensive players (Houston / Trevathan / Goldman) truly makes it tough for Chicago. Dallas showed that they can move the chains behind Prescott, and playing at home, I expect them to have a lot of success offensively. I’m wondering if Chicago can keep up. The offense is already horrendous and now the D will really fall off. This could very well be a blowout.
Lean: DAL -7
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