Analysis:
Week 9: Green Bay Packers
I was hoping Cobb would play but even without him Green Bay has enough weapons to dominate this game offensively. The difference for me here is on the defensive side. Packers have a premier pass-rush, while Indy ranks 32nd in protecting Luck. This should be the difference in the game. I do expect some ‘upsets’ to happen this week, as both KC and DAL are prime for it from my perspective. I’m also hoping SF and DET could pull it off as well, as entries should be the Saints and Vikings this week.
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Week 8: Oakland Raiders
This is a tough week for Survivor Picks. I’ve used up Tennessee already, and they were the team with the highest differential that my model spit out. I’ve also used up the Patriots, and though I think that game will be close, I like the ‘revenge’ angle in that one. And finally, I just can’t bring myself to back the Vikings on the road in a divisional matchup. That’s a big ‘no on’ when it comes to Survivor picks. So let’s go with the Raiders, a team that is taking this game very seriously by staying in Florida for a full week to avoid traveling back and forth. They’re better than the Bucs, and hopefully they can pull this one out.
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Week 7: Cincinnati Bengals
I hesitated at first with this play as Hue Jackson is familiar with Cincy being their O-Coordinator for the last few years. But the talent gap between these teams is vast in my opinion. In addition, Bengals should be plenty motivated to play well, as they’re not that far off from 1st place in the division, especially since Roethlisberger is out for a number of weeks. Coming off 2 straight losses, I expect Cincy to step up in this one against their former coach.
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Week 6: Tennessee Titans
My model has the Titans by 8.2 points at home in this matchup and that’s pretty much as good as it gets in the NFL. Key factor to consider is that Josh McCown is declared out, which means he has no shot of coming in in the middle of this one if (when?) Kessler gets re-injured. The titans sport a 7th ranked D, are 8th overall against the pass, and 10th in pass-rush (based on ASR%). Offensively the 3rd most efficient run-game and 3rd ranked run-blocking O-line, should be a key advantage against Cleveland’s 22nd ranked run-D and 27th ranked D-Line against the run. The Browns also lost Joel Bitonio last week, who is a top-10 ranked guard in the league (PFF), superior in both pass-protection and run-game. He’s replaced by Alvin Bailey, one of the worst run-blockers and worst overall guards in the league. Huge downgrade for the interior of this Cleveland line, which of course will make running the ball that much more difficult. Hard to see the Browns move the ball offensively or stop the Titans defensively in this one.
I also considered Arizona in this spot, but a juicy home matchup in early November with 49ers made me pass on them this week. I also looked at Steelers, but they have a bit of a look-ahead against the Patriots at home, and their D lost another impact player in Heyward. Is this the game Miami is competitive in again, the way they were @ Seattle? Steelers play @ Browns in middle of November, and have a few other matchups I could exploit later on. For the Titans, this is the best week to use ‘em.
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Week 5: New England Patriots
The fact that Brady is returning to the Pats is one thing. But this team is coming off an embarrassing loss at home to the Bills. It’s bad enough they lost to Rex Ryan, but they got shut-out. I expect a very strong showing from them this week as the Pats look to get back to winning.
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Week 4: Washington Redskins
This is pretty much the only team that I’m comfortable taking this week. Pats at home with a similar spread are ‘tempting’ on a first glance, but they are playing a divisional opponent and will have a hobbled Garoppolo leading the offense. I’ll wait till Brady is back. Arizona also has a similar spread, but they’re playing a divisional opponent, and it’s not like they’ve looked ‘great’ so far. I think Washington has the best chance here. The team is 0-2 at home, losing to PIT and DAL. This is a team that went 6-2 at home last year, so they know how to play well on their home turf. I doubt they start out the season 0-3 at home. Another factor to consider is that after playing Washington (and winning hopefully) that takes away another ‘mediocre’ team from the available-list: Giants, Dolphins, Washington. Panthers is the only above average team I’ve used so far. Going forward that’s tremendous advantage as the top teams are still available to be used in the future.
Good Luck
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Week 3: Miami Dolphins
This week it came down to the Dolphins and the Cowboys. I don’t think either will face an easier matchup the rest of the way, though Dallas does visit Cleveland in week 9. I just can’t pass up an opportunity to “survive” fairly easily another week as Miami will face a rookie QB whose own coaching staff had said is unprepared to play in the NFL just yet. In addition, their emerging stud WR Coleman is out with a broken hand, leaving Cleveland without one of their most dangerous weapons. Just hard to envision the Browns being competitive in this one, just like the spread indicates. I’ll grab an “easy” win in week 3 and start looking ahead to week 4.
Good Luck
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Week 2: Carolina Panthers
By process of elimination, Carolina is the play this week.
- Pats – still without Brady
- Ravens – RGIII is out, plus Ravens are on a road against a divisional opponent
- Cardinals – Bucks showed they have a lot of offensive firepower
- Broncos – hard to fade that Indy offense with a QB like Semien for DEN
- Seahawks – let’s wait for Wilson to get fully healthy
I think that covers most of the top teams with spreads of -6 or higher. Carolina isn’t just the largest favorite this week, they’re also in a great position to secure an ‘easy’ win. The Panthers have 10 days to rest/prepare, while San Fran is coming off a MNF game. And not a typical MNF, but a late one. In the NFL, each day makes a difference, but also even a few hours. A typically MNF game is at 8:20 EST. San Fran started theirs at 10:20 EST or so, a full 2 hours later. In the NFL, those hours matter. In any case, besides the fact that San Fran is on a short turnaround, they’re also travel East and playing in the 1 PM EST time-slot. So they go from playing at 7 PM ‘Pacific time’ to playing at 10 AM ‘Pacific time’. This is not going to be easy. And I don’t even need to tell you the difference in ‘quality’ between these two teams.
Finally, looking over Carolina’s schedule, this is the safest game on it. They play vs MIN in week 3 (a playoff team) followed by three straight against their 3 divisional opponents, two of which will be on the road. Then a BYE in week 7. After that their “easiest” matchups are @ LAR in week 9 (on the road and maybe Fisher will figure out his QB situation by then) and SD in week 14 (at home, though Chargest are typically a difficult out no matter what). All those matchups are potential losses, even the so-called “easy” ones.
Take the Panthers with confidence in week 2 and prepare to ‘survive’ till week 3!
Good Luck
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Week 1: New York Giants
I’m in a survivor pool with 300 people, so for me to win, I have to be strategic about my selections. As I expect most of the entries to be on Seattle and Arizona this week, I’m going contrarian, even though both SEA and ARZ should win and are much safer. I think NY has a good shot for a win as well. They’re facing a rookie QB (4th rounder no less) and a decimated Dallas defense in this one. Their schedule gets fairly difficult with no ‘easy’ games until maybe week 9 against the Eagles at home or week 12 @ Cleveland. I’d rather use them today, and save both SEA and ARZ for a later time (SEA in week 3 hosting SF looks appealing as is ARZ hosting LAR in week 4 or @ SF in week 5). Saving the best two teams in the league while a lot of the entries will use them up today should provide a strong advantage as the season progresses. Hopefully it works out.
Good luck and let’s have a great NFL season everyone!