451 Car -3 at DEN
This game is pretty much painted -3 across the board. The game also opened 3, but it was DENVER that was the -3! In retrospect, this line does make sense. Denver was +5 in the Super Bowl on a neutral site, and now most believe the Broncos are weaker this year. The Denver defense simply has to regress, and their two capable back up quarterbacks THIS year are worse than their two very capable back up quarterbacks LAST year. Throw in some bigtime revenge for the Panthers, and -3 looks correct.
The lesson from this one game, is that IMO the odds makers are given WAY too much respect. One shop opened this game at Den-3, and other books copied the opener (that didn't last long, but Denver WAS favored for most of the summer)! I am a huge believer in often fading big line moves vs. openers, but I don't really consider the summer NFL numbers to be 'openers'. I think the CURRENT numbers should be considered the openers in fact, now that the market has stabilized.
What do you guys think about Car/DEN? Does this line go up to +3.5? At what point/price does someone finally start betting back on the World Champions?
On the capping front, I have FIRED on a preseason week3 best bet, and I have my 3* CFB GAME OF THE MONTH up as well. Check it out!
http://bit.ly/1dO56ZY