I know for a FACT that Mr. Nover is one of the Best NFL handicappers out there. he WILL get far more right than wrong.
I would like to add some food for thought here, in an objective manner, to HELP the Forum and Mr. Nover( the Thread Starter).
The Bolts went 0-6 in their Division last year, and were only competitive in 3 of the 6 games. The one Oakland game the Black/Gold had a huge lead and Bolts made the game look closer than it really was.
Whenever I do Season Totals, I start with the 6 games they MUST play each Season, and the "Feel" of the Team AND Division; quick example the NFC East a confusing Division, the Weakest in the NFC, possibly NFL.
But my "Feel" for this AFC West? Sit down, grab a cup a java:
The AFC West might be the BEST Division in the NFL.
Sticking to the Thread, for the Bolts to win 7, they really must win 8 for you to win that Prop. One reason I like to sniff UNDERS, you need one less game in your favor. Going Over is challenging; your Team has to stay healthy, out of the Metro News( arrests, underage jailbait, PED's etc), and have SOME type of dynamic working FOR it: momentum, a winning streak, etc.
I also realize the Schedule is the Schedule, you play who THEY slate you in for, and last year the Bolts' Division games, 5 of the 6 were in the last 8 games. Their 1st Division game was Game 7 hosting Oakland.
This year? The more reasonable 4 games in both halves of the Season. They open AT KC, a game I expect the Bolts to lose. Then Jax, @ Indy, then back home hosting N.O.. I think the Bolts can beat the Saints; the Bolts actually match up better against the Saints than any of the other three teams of their first 4 games.
For the Bolts to win 8 games, just my OPINION for now, NO official pick, they MUST get out of the 1st 4 games 2-2, beating Jax and N.O.. They could possibly lose to Jax. The Bolts' next 4 games: @ Oak, DEN, @ Falcons, @ DEN.
Realistically, I see the Bolts MAYBE beating the Dirty Birds, possibly losing this slate of the next four games.
This is just some "leans" of mine, I have not gone through piece-bpiece I plan to real soon.
As Fezzik has in another Thread, the movements in O/U Totals WILL be forthcoming, and if I am in vegas and I see the Bolts "jump" up to 7.5, I am firing Under. I also try to get Lines with the half game: One Season I had seven O/U's and winded up winning very little, 4 pushes, right on the number. bad enough you are tying up your money for 6 months, but to get no return is not-so-good, almost embarrassing.
More another time, I must go.
jaxterspix