Yesterday morning I am scrambling to get going, knowing I will be in Studio 10am for the 1st preview Radio Show. Right after I leave, I get word that a couple of sharp guys are on game 305 Hamilton, apparently no one believes in their Back up QB Cato. I pull over to the side of the road, and find a few Hamilton pk'ms on my apps. I make it into the studio just in time, and meet a friend for lunch, knowing I will release Hamilton when I get home.
The problem is that by the time I get home Hamilton -115 is gone. Hamilton -1 is also largely not widely available. I have three choices, Hamilton -1.5, Hamilton -125, and to pass on releasing it. Note, Hamilton -1.5-110 and Hamilton -125 are pretty close to equal value, but Hamilton -1.5-110 is likely a few cents better.
I have no question Hamilton was the right side. If you make bets like that, you win money. Hamilton is the poster child of solid early bets that get the money at 55% type rates.
However, I have missed the Hamilton strike price. If we bet Hamilton -125, we need to hit 55.5% (125/225) just to break even. For Hamilton to be a good bet, they really need to win this game 57% of the time, and I think that is a leap of faith.
So I curse myself for not getting up a little earlier yesterday, and being ready to send out Hamilton -115 or so, before the line move got away. I have no doubt Hamilton likely leaks up a bit more and closes -2.5 at post. Given that I think it was fine to play -1 or up to -118 and get a good bet. However, once it ticked a bit higher, I have to pass.
I KNOW it sounds crazy to many, how can you get off a game so much based on just a one point line move. I like to use the MoneyLines to show how important that 1 point really is. You typically wouldn't want to bet an MLB game at -125 that you could have just gotten -115, and the same is true in Football.
We will have hundreds of good Football bets to make this season, we don't have to force one with Hamilton just because we want a CFL bet this week......
+31 Units YTD, we look to build on it this Friday with some MLB best bets. Note, I will be the $1 capper today; I will be giving out an MLB $1 best bet for Friday!
http://bit.ly/1dO56ZY