Hello fellow Handicappers.
Good to be back, and I like to contribute in a positive manner for everyone's benefit.
For those that do remember me, you recall that I only Handicap ONE Sport: NFL football.
I am terrible at any other Sports although in my 20's I did book two back-to-back Monster College Basketball Seasons.
I just cannot get into the other sports like I do the NFL.
Imagine Fezzik walking up to me and slapping the back of my head; " C'mon, you Joker! Use your experience in the NFL to do the other Sports for a better return". Logically, Fezzik & Co. would be more correct than incorrect, except in MY personal case.
So I just took a FIVE minute gander at the NFL Team Win/Loss Totals, and have some EARLY IMPRESSIONS.
These Notes are just that: Notes, not Official Selections.
When I get the few days to see what EACH NFL team did since Supe 50, I can give "LEANS", before I make any Selections Official.
Just some 7-second jolting thoughts:
ARZ 9.5. If I can get OVER 9( the Line slipping to 9), I might make a BIGGER bet than usual, and this is a very unusual play for me to have a Team go OVER. I usually pound the UNDERS; it is easier for a Team to be decimated by injuries, suspensions, Fired HC's, Local Distractions( check Dallas this year, folks, and Teams moving/leaving a Locale, etc). It's just plain hard to win any ONE GAME in the NFL, and every Season I see my fellow Handicappers keep repeating the same mistakes year after year. You MUST have good ability to read the "Pulse" of the Teams you follow.
BAL 7.5? Are you serious? I already read here on this Forum of two fellow PreGamers that like the OVER 7.5. It may be the right side, but consider: CIN will still be the Force to be reckoned with( I always start evaluating Totals by who a Team must play twice per Season), PIT certainly can move the ball as good as any other Team in the NFL, and if CLE can not be so inept( Josh Gordon, THE Best WR on the field if he can stop smoking crack and chasing kitty cats; Bad Owner, but I DO like Hue Jackson, who will whip their arises when they screw up), and CLE can live up to their potential, I see BAL in the basement.
BUF 8. Actually a great Number for the HOUSE. Can Rex turn it around, when their vaunted DE's were 2nd, not in Number of QB sacks like the previous 3 years, but last year they were 2nd to LAST. That is too much a slippage on any D team and everyone here knows it. Rex might be coaching his last season. Here's my 1st Q: they split vs. Fish, lose 2 to Pats, lose 2 to Jets. They have to win 7 of 10 games outside their Division. A stretch. If this creeps up to 8.5, I am going UNDER.
DEN 9.5. I am seriously looking to the UNDER. Who is the QB? Other personnel losses, Team overhaul HANGOVER( when the Broncos won the Last Lombardi as Elway retired, they started the nest Season 0-4 on a dismal 6-10 season). I am seriously looking for serious regression here. Oh, OAK has improved, and beat their arises good AT Den last year after being down 12-0 at the half. KC looks strong D wise, and KC whipped them good too. If the CHARGERS can overachieve at all, I can see DEN going 2-4 or worse in their own Division, leaving them to win 8 games out of 10 outside their Division. Remember, that .5 point must be treated as a FULL point if you need a Team to go OVER the Number.
PATS 10. Almost all my local friends here I deal with just hand me money every year betting against the Pats: I keep hearing the same "variables" each of the last 16 years( since Brady):
1) The Jets will overtake them this year.
2) The Pats can't keep winning the AFC east, can they?
3) The Bills will overtake them this year: stacked at front 7.
4) Brady can't be THAT good - he will "regress to the Mean".
They engage me with friendly Dinner bets every Season. I am already planing where they will take me and my wife this year.
Bottom line to the 4 Variables above: Keep waiting for the Pats to slip enough NOT to go Over the Total. But this year, Brady might sit those first 4 games, and THAT alone might make me take them out to Dinner in January. I'll start cutting Coupons just in case.
NYG 7.5. If this gets to 8, I AM backing up the Truck, there is NO WAY Eli is going to metamorphasize into Peyton. Eli got his ONLY two Lombardi's by that great pass rush against the NE teams that choked for reasons that Einstein would never solve in a million years: the ultimate sports Twilight Zone episode( and cost me 30K in 2008 MONEY LINE bet - just win the game, Pats!). Eli will NEVER get to the Big Dance ever again, unless he gets traded to a great team.
PIT 10.5. If this gets to 11, I am considering going UNDER, see the BAL reasons above. PIT is good, yes, very good, but that QB Class of 2000 is getting long in the tooth; any regression is worth two, three games. I need to see how their D is first before I make a play.
49ers 5. I just saw this move to 6, a BIG jump for the basement finisher in the TOUGHEST Division in the NFL. When a team drops off like the 49ers did, a bounce-back is highly improbable; they just lost too much and any Coaching overhaul is almost always disastrous. Harbaugh got a lot of the credit for their 3 year NFC Title appearance and that loss to the BAL Ravens, but truth be told it was SINGLETARY that helped build that team. Most people forget that.
SEA 10.5. A team that MIGHT finally run out of some steam, and NOT kicking that chip shot FG with 1 min. to go at CAR when they were down 31-0, trust me, I can prove it that I TOLD people at the Sportsbook that Pete Carroll screwed up, and yes, having that FG at the Half would have changed their strategy with 5 min. to go. They were FORCED to go for TD's instead of kicking FG's to victory. I know, I know, the FG Coach of all-time, George Allen, never won the Lombardi, but if he had those Teams that were far better than those rag-patched teams of the '70's, he would have won a few. If a QB can "regress-to-the-mean" and finally have the soph. slumped delayed, it WILL be Russell Wilson. Remember this too, Handicappers: Another year of film to look at. Which foot does he step off when bull-rushed from the right, etc. But the Regressing QB won't be Tom Brady.
If you read this entire Post, I thank you and I hope we can catch up real soon.
Jaxterspix