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WHY TONIGHT'S GAME IS A GOOD PASS

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Thread Starter WHY TONIGHT'S GAME IS A GOOD PASS
Rob Crowne
Joined: 06/24/2006
Posts: 1033
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The St. Petersburg Bowl?  They've got to be kidding.  Louisville probably thinks they deserve better.  Southern Miss will likely want to win this more than Louisville.  But as I said in my "Observations from a Professional" blog article on Sunday, guessing at such factors is not a basis for risking your money.  A pro bets on facts, not guesses unless the odds are high enough to compensate over time if you guess wrong.  The odds in this game are essentially a pick.  That's just not sufficient for guess work.  

If you followed my rules you saved yourself a losing bet on Bret Favre when it was announced he would start but you had no idea about the actual condition of his shoulder, and you also handled the total in the snow correctly.  

Tonight it's time to wait until the half to see if Louisville is really going to lie down.  Until then, this game is a great pass.

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jv wins
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Disagree,plenty of motivation.Its not florida and ohio st.
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No Limit
Joined: 10/19/2009
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I passed and totally agree with ya.  Actually think southern miss should be a small fav so that raised the red flag for me.  PASS

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Rob Crowne
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jv wins
Disagree,plenty of motivation.Its not florida and ohio st.

 

 Okay.  But plenty of motivation for who?  Louisville?  Why should Louisville be motivated here?  Southern Miss has motivation from several angles.  Nevertheless, it all is just assunption, so it doesn't make any difference until it is something more than mere intuition.  

 Also, I'm not sure I understand the refenrence to Florida and Ohio St.

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jv wins
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If it was those two teams,neither would be motivated.As is, at the start,s.miss is definately more motivated. I should have followed evans advice and googled both teams.S.miss feels they have something to prove.That looks like the winning angle at this point.
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ChrisK109
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 for your info for future reference...  Louisville (the fans and program)  were not expecting to win 3 game let alone 6.  Also  Louisville was selected to finish last in the Big East this year.  Louisville did not expect to be in a bowl...so obviously they did not think they deserved better.

 

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Rob Crowne
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theCrisp9
for your info for future reference...  Louisville (the fans and program)  were not expecting to win 3 game let alone 6.  Also  Louisville was selected to finish last in the Big East this year.  Louisville did not expect to be in a bowl...so obviously they did not think they deserved better.

 

 

The point of the post was not that Louisville is or is not motivated.  The point was that it is a good pass because the edge against the line would be motivation, and as the conflicting opinions about motivation indicate here, all such assumptions are simply intuitive and may be completely wrong.  

As it turned out, by the end of the game, neither team appeared to be more motivated than the other, although Louisville certainly looked to be simply going through the motions in the first quarter.  With the emotions questionable, the only basis for a play would be the statistical handicap and that had the game almost exactly on the line, both side and total.  As it happens that's what happened, and I certainly wasn't sorry I passed.   Too close to call without the motivation, and the only correct assessment of motivation out of the three possibilities was jv who originally said both were equally motivated.  Based on that call we would still be left with a pass. 

The handicap of So Miss by 2 was very close to where I had it, which was a pick -- meaning the last team to score would win it, possibly in OT.  The prop on that will be an OT at 12-1 was a good bet in this particlar game, although the odds would not be sufficient in other games and even though the prop bet would have lost.

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