The line opened at -3.5 or -4 depending on where you wager, Carolina then gets bet up to -6 almost immediately. It here that you should remember once the line is out, the public sets it! It has settled at -5.5, but the story is how much money is on the Carolina Panthers. There were reports that nearly 75% -80% of bets and the money was wagered on Carolina. That puts exposure to the Vegas books. If you are a Carolina backer, I would look for something else to bet! A very telling stat from RJ Bell shows Vegas has won the money on the Super Bowl 23 out of 25 Super Bowls (since state wide accounts began). That is 92% win rate. I suppose the counter argument is regression for the books is due but that is pretty weak.
The Carolina Panthers are the offense "no one" has seen before and are blowing away teams. They also have the commonly assumed MVP in QB Cam Newton. He accounts for 49 TDs. The Panthers have only lost one game. They have scored less than 20 points only one time! They have scored more than 30 points 9 times in the last eleven tries. They have a defense that scores and creates turnovers. Combine that with the seemingly inept old QB that is Peyton Manning for the Broncos and many have this game viewed as a blowout. So this why handicappers exist. We are not always accurate but we do find the edges. Denver has the NFL best defense. 40 of the past 49 Super Bowls have been won the better defense. If Cam Newton should win the MVP, it could mean another trend to overcome. The MVP QB's are 4-11 SU off winning their award and 3-10-2 ATS since 1980 (0-6-1 since 1988). Another HUGE trend for this game. Teams who score 40 or more points in an NFL playoff game are 11-17 SU and 4-23-1 ATS in their following game!
The Broncos are ALL defense with a superb (now that he is not giving the ball to the other team) game manager at QB. According to Pro Football Outsiders (DVOA Ranks), the Denver defense is better than that of the Baltimore Ravens in 2000 and their offense is worse the offense of Trent Dilfer. That Bal defense is widely acclaimed as one of the best ever. Perspective should be similar to this Denver defense. They should be looked at as one of the best ever. Wade Phillips has done a masterful job of matching up his players to the offenses they face each week. The game plan variable weekly. Do not expect the Broncos to have the same game plan against Carolina this week as they did vs New England last week. NE could care less about running the football and Carolina wants to the run. Carolina has gained 100+ rushing 31 consecutive games! The NFL record is 37 by Pittsburgh. The Denver defense is #1 vs the run, #2 vs the pass and #1 in sacks. They will effectively take away the Carolina passing game. The Denver secondary is a major advantage for them. TE Olson is the only target where CAR can compete for receiving wins. Car is also almost last in the league throwing to their backs. That puts us back to the running game again. I researched the games Carolina played against Dick LeBeau's Tennessee defense and that of the Dan Quinn of the Atlanta Falcons in their second game . Let me first say that this IS an offense that has been seen before. It is a similar offense to that of what RG III was running in Washington and Kaepernick was running in San Francisco. Cam is operating the offense at a higher level is the difference. The key to stopping it is committing 7 or 8 to the run game plus having a secondary that can man up! The Broncos meet this bill. The Panthers have the 4th ranked "big play" offense and the Broncos the 8th ranked "big play" defense. However, the limitations the Denver defense applies is more of a factor. They limit you to a 4.4% success rate! So take away the big plays and you need to have sustained drives (that eat up clock). Atlanta forced Car. into 30 pass attempts and they only completed 17. Car . did run 20 times for 155 yrds but did not get the big plays. Atlanta shortened the game with long sustained offensive drives. They ran the ball and just kept getting third and shorts. The biggest key, was being even in turn overs. Tennessee effectively stopped the run allowing 119 yrds on 34 attempts. They just don't have the secondary to man up and were beaten that way. The scores was 17-10 going into the 4th quarter and Carolina scored 10 to win 27-10.
So just how good is this Carolina team? The Panthers finished 1st in points per drive but only 12th in yards per drive. Carolina ranks 8th in offensive DVOA which is lowest among 38 teams since 1997 of those that led in points. Carolina is the ONLY offense to lead in points and not place in the top ten in yards gained since 1970! This is an offense that destroyed the season's easiest schedule and the had the second best starting field position in the NFL. No offense had more touchdown drives start in opponent territory than Carolina did (15). It is critical that Denver does not turn the ball over. If Carolina has to start at their own 25, Denver is in good shape! Consider that Carolina played the AFC South, maybe the worst division in football, who gave them some good battles this season.
The advantage is when Denver is on offense. Carolina has a better advantage over their offense. However, Manning is healthier than he has been all year. The Bronco offense is what they are. Methodically move the ball being very careful to not put their defense in a hole. They don't take chances and rely on high execution of simple plays. Carolina ranks 4th on defense. Denver ranks 18th. If Denver can sustain offense similar to what Atlanta did, they can win this game. They have to make effective runs to get short 3rd opportunities and not turn the ball over. I also envision both team eating up clock trying to run. They both have dominant defenses so it will be a challenge.
Webbie's Take: I look for a lower scoring game with few big plays. I can see scenarios where Carolina can cover or Denver the same, but I really think under is best. I will say that Denver has the experience to keep the game in striking range all the way through giving them a chance to win in the 4th quarter. So Denver plus 6 works for a small wager. A teaser may work with Denver +12 and Under 51.