I LOVE betting NFL props! I do it all year, and when the Super Bowl rolls around, and I have 400+ props to choose from, I am typically running around town FIRING in bets. We have had some very nice NFL prop runs this year, including going on a 11-1 run on Thursday Night Free Play Prop bets at one point (given out during the dream podcast), and going 4-1 on Free Play Props during the playoffs.
I see the good, the bad, and the ugly every year on these props. Early in the process, let me outline what I strongly believe is the wrong way to try to make money: Trying to bet on big + money props.
These include such things as "Will there be OT?". The public is 0-49 betting "yes" on this one +700ish. Yet, they bet it every year.
"Will there be 3 consecutive scores?". The public ALWAYS loves the "no" + 160 ish on this one, and the 'yes' is usually the right side.
What player will score the 1st TD? Exactly how many points will a team score? How much will a team win by?
ALL of these bets are even worse.......the house vig is sky high, and they just crush the public on these. I still have a vivid memory after A Broncos SB crushing loss of a guy at Caesar's holding up a $100 ticket on Sammy Winder to score the 1st TD....+500. Imagine the house edge booking that bet!
I will have over 50 SB bets in my possession by kickoff (most at rogue non widely available numbers) and I can tell you that I likely will have 2-3 only with + money on them. I WILL have MANY bets at -120, -130 on things that may look like a coin flip but really aren't. As an example, I had Az to throw the 1st pass in the 4th quarter in the NFC title game). Further I will have a bunch of bets at -150, -250, and even -600.
I am SURE there will be a few solid + money props, but they will be few and far between. I know of one I am sure to land one, so there are exceptions. However, for the most part, I will be betting and winning with the chalk on the props......and that is where the value can typically be found.
My SB full package is up, including my 1st prop release. Get ALL my plays on the SBowl, which should include 6-9 props....
http://bit.ly/1tsZERe