Sunday, November 29, 2015 |
Minnesota Vikings vs. Atlanta Falcons (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST |
Atlanta Falcons |
Premium Play |
Sportsbook.com |
Play Title 9 Star NFC Inter-conference Donnybrook LOSS Play Selected Money Line: -130 HC Dan Quinn may have appeared to lose momentum he had earlier in the season after his Falcons have proceeded to drop 4 of their last 5 games. I feel the extra-prep week of 2 weeks ago kicks in here. The problem last week was taking their foot off the gas too early & not taking a Colts team serious enough with an aging 2nd-string QB. That won't be the case here with 3 roadies immediately on deck versus Tampa Bay, Carolina & Jacksonville. DC Richard Smith's "D" is fresh and are ranked #1 versus the rush in the NFL. He'll employ his usual 4-3 alignment and force pressure from the edges to rake havoc in the backfield with pressure on 2nd-year Minnesota QB Teddy Bridgewater (8/6 TD/INT ratio, 65% completions for 2,106 passing yards) who has been sacked 30 times this season. This is a critical game for Atlanta since many teams with similar records are jockeying for only 2 NFC wild card slots. On the flip side of the football we find an offense directed by QB Matt Ryan (15/10 TD/INT ratio, 66% completions for 2,982 passing yards). I feel that OC Kyle Shanahan will find a way to make the running game shine using RB Tevin Coleman even if Devonta Freeman is out for a significant period. My bottom line says WR Julio Jones can burn you & burn you deep. His league-leading 134 targets rank #1 & his 89 receptions for 1,189 receiving yards will make the difference today. RB Adrian Peterson may get close to 100 yards, but it won't be enough. My 9 Star NFC Inter-conference Donnybrook goes to the Georgia Dome to play the Atlanta Falcons!
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New York Giants vs. Washington Redskins (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST |
Over |
Premium Play |
Pinnacle |
Play Title 8 Star No Secrets Totals Play LOSS Play Selected Total: 47.0/-107 Look for these 2 to do what they think they do best. That's pass the football. Giants' QB Eli Manning & Redskins' QB Kurt Cousins should let the aerials fly with many 2nd half points. These HC's, Tom Coughlin & Jay Gruden will force the issue of trying to control the line of scrimmage. The result will be more passing & more stoppages. No secrets here! Play OVER the total in the N.Y. Giants-Washington game @ FedEx Field as my 8 Star No Secrets Totals Play!
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST |
Over |
Premium Play |
Pinnacle |
Play Title 8 Star Familiarity Totals Play LOSS Play Selected Total: 46.0/-105 Remember the Saints @ Colts game? Indy doesn't play the NFC that well. If it wasn't for a 2nd half collapse by Atlanta, the Colts would have been 0-3 SU entering into today for the 2015-16 season. I look for the Bucs offense to stay on track here. On the side of the ball, I like the way aging veteran Matt Hasselbeck can methodically move the ball for Indianapolis. On a fast track, I see offense taking over with a lot of 2nd half points that reach the number by the early 4th. Take OVER the total in the Tampa Bay-Indianapolis game @ Lucas Oil Stadium!
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Premium Play |
Pinnacle |
Play Title 9 Star Loose Cannon Play LOSS Play Selected Point Spread: 3.0/-113 The loose cannon I speak of is rookie QB Jameis Winston. Yes, he is the rookie-on-the-road here, but that system does not kick in when a team is up-and-coming plus running on all cylinders. I realize how young Winston really is compared to Colts' QB since Jameis was in pre-school when Hasselbeck was drafted into the NFL by Green Bay inside 1998's 6th-round. But Winston has matured nicely under his mentor & OC Dirk Koetter. His (15/9 TD/INT ratio, 86.5 passer rating) is decent for a rookie along with being sacked 17 times in 10 games. He should find time to throw to (TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, WR Mike Evans & WR Vincent Jackson when he faces an Indianapolis secondary that ranks 29th in the NFL. The BIG gap in this game has to be in the running game where the Swashbucklers outrush the Horseshoes on the season 1,419 to 985. Remember, the Colts offense actually scored 17 of the 24 points last week. They won't be on the field much when Tampa Bay's RB Doug Martin (941 rushing yards @ 5.0 yards a pop) gets it going. My bottom line says this pirate ship gets it done by embracing their off-surface. They've already past the off-surface road tests with flying colors @ New Orleans, @ Atlanta & most recently @ Philadelphia. On the flip side, i'm not sure how effective the Indianpolis ground game is going to be without a healthy RB named Frank Gore. I feel the Colts left a lot on the field in last week's come-from-behind win. I'm ready to travel to Lucas Oil Stadium to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (but buy to -2 1/2) as my 9 Star Loose Cannon Play!
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Oakland Raiders vs. Tennessee Titans (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST |
Tennessee Titans |
Premium Play |
SIA |
Play Title 8 Star Ugly Pig Play Of The Week WIN (Off Buy) Play Selected Point Spread: 1.5/-110 Tennessee has delivered for us before with this play so we're coming back with them here. Oakland looked like a team that was going to turn it around but has taken a few steps back since beating the Jets @ home pushing their record to 4-3. I understand that the Titans have major issues @ home (0-10 SU), but it's time fellas. The Raiders have deeper troubles playing in Eastern Time Zone fracases going 1-17 SU their last 18. Interim HC Mike Mularkey has his team playing competitive football with a tough loss @ Jacksonville then hung around with Carolina the week before. I believe once WR Kendall Wright (12.2 YPC) is back & contributing, the missing cog could put up a few more W's. My bottom line says that Mularkey knows how to use Mariota running ability when the situation dictates. They should find success against the 29th-rated Silver & Black defense that's given up around 29 PPG over the last 3. The Tennessee defense (since Dick LeBeau came over from Pittsburgh) has been more aggressive by carefully disguising pressure inside the 3-4 defensive scheme. They've come along way since they were rated 27th on "D" last season & currently rank 3rd versus the pass & 6th overall. With Oakland only mustering 3,582 yards of offense but giving up 4,052, I like our chance with the home team that only gets outgained by an average of 3 yards per game. Let's motor to Nissan Stadium in Nashville to look for that avoided "W" (but buy to + 3 1/2) and take the Tennessee Titans as my 8 Star Ugly Pig Play Of The Week!
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Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST |
Buffalo Bills |
Premium Play |
BetUS |
Play Title 8 STAR Points Are Golden Play LOSS Play Selected Point Spread: 4.5/-110 It's been 5 weeks since the Chiefs have played @ Arrowhead. Will NOT having their TOP 2 RB's in Jamaal Charles & Charcandrick West prove too difficult to compensate? They'll be forced to use (fresh off the practice squad) RB Spencer Ware, 2nd-year speedster out of L.S.U.. Kansas City QB Alex Smith (10/3 TD/INT ratio, 64% completions & a 93 passer rating) has already been sacked 33 times & could be in for a long afternoon if Buffalo is successful at stopping the run. His 253 passes without an INT could be in serious jeopardy. On the flip side of the football we have an awesome 1-2 punch in the backfield with RB's LeSean McCoy (3 TD's & 4.6 yards a pop) & Karlos Williams (5 TD's & 5.8 YPC). Add to ex-Raven & mobile QB Tyrod Taylor (11/4 TD/INT ratio, 685 completions & a 101 passer rating) who has rushed for 244 yards & 4.8 YPC since coming back from an knee injury. The Bills are 5-3 SU with Taylor behind center. My bottom line says this game has serious wild card implications & there's not much separating these teams to warrant this number. Let's take the Buffalo Bills to the bank as my 8 Star Points Are Golden Play!
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Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers (NFL) - 4:05 PM EST |
Under |
Premium Play |
Sportsbook.com |
Play Title 8 Star Intra-division Totals Play WIN Play Selected Total: 46.0/-110 Look for San Francisco's "D" to play inspired football but get tired in the end. I feel these teams will struggle to score early on leading this to an "UNDER" tonight. The 54 points & an "OVER" the first time around won't happen again as these teams are more familiar "defensively" in this heated battle. Grab the UNDER as my 8 Star Intra-divisional Totals Play in the Arizona-San Francisco game @ Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara!
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks (NFL) - 4:25 PM EST |
Pittsburgh Steelers |
Premium Play |
BetUS |
Play Title 8 STAR Inter-Conference Value Play LOSS Play Selected Point Spread: 3.0/-105 I believe the Steelers are in the great position for a wild card if they win here. Seattle seems to have Super Bowl hangover 2nd year removed. Pittsburgh is the better balanced team to bring this one back home to the Steel City. i'm not buying the home field advantage anymore with a walking-wounded team. Roetlisberger still has enough weapons without Bell in the backfield to chalk up a cover and possible win. Let's go to CenturyLink Field to play the Pittsburgh Steelers (but buy to + 3 1/2) as my 8 STAR Inter-Conference Value Play!
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Thursday, November 26, 2015 |
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Detroit Lions (NFL) - 12:30 PM EST |
Premium Play |
Pick: Point Spread: 3.0/-125 Philadelphia Eagles Pick Title: 8 Star Earlybird Thanksgiving Day Special |
Loss |
Everyone is banking on Philadelphia packing it in for the season, having quit on their coach & on the rumor of that HC in Chip Kelly leaving at the end of the season as being fact. I'm not sold at all on these rumors. Yes, the Eagles have flunked the eye test the past 2 weeks turning the ball over 4 times in 2 losses to Miami & Tampa Bay. However, their Florida run is over as well as their tricky favorite role. The good news is they are taking on a 2-9 SU Detroit team on Thanksgiving Day games. The Lions have generated NO turnovers in 2 weeks PLUS average just 16 PPG in their last 4 contests. They will no doubt be motivated here and may jet out to an early lead. But when the smoke clears, they still have to face a Philadelphia ground game led by RB DeMarco Murray that's averaged 151 YPG over the past 6 contests. Their backup QB Mark Sanchez can actually run and is better suited for this type of offense. In contrast Detroit has rushed for 78 YPG over the last 4 and are 2-3 SU @ home this season. My bottom line says that Philadelphia is more than capable of rising to the occasion when in an unfamiliar dog role when facing a "D" that ranks 29th in scoring defense. Their mentality changes just like when they faced the New York Jets on the road earlier in the season as a 3-point dog on the road. The result was a 7-point outside win. Even though the Broad Street Boys are 4-6 SU, they sit 1 game out in the NFC Least (yes least) with 3 out of 5 very winnable games versus Buffalo, Washington & the N.Y. Giants forthcoming after today's game. Turnovers LOSE ball games and the Lions have no takeaways the past 2 weeks & their offense has turned it over 21 times. I'm saying the home team will revert back to their losing ways @ Ford Field so we're hopping all over the Philadelphia Eagles (but buy to + 3 1/2) as my 8 Star Earlybird Thanksgiving Day Special!
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This Week On NFL Sides: 1-5 ??? Still Stupified Seasonal Overall NFL Record On Sides: 32-31 51% Seasonal Overall NFL Record 10*s: 5-1 83% CFB & NFL Overall Record On 10*s Or Higher : 13-4 77% |