2015 NFL Record
53 – 42 @ 57% for +6.8 Units
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#1: Premium-Pay $5 - Click Here
#2: Tennessee Titans +1
#3: Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5
#4: Denver Broncos +2.5
Good Luck
NFL Breakdowns Week 12:
NO @ HOU -3
Remember when a “bad” Detroit Lions defense went into their BYE week, only to come out of it to become one of the better defenses in the league over the last 3 games. Could the same thing happen to the Saints? Well, Detroit has a stud CB in Darius Slay, a stud pass rusher in Ezekiel Ansah, a former stud in Haloti Ngata who is finally getting healthy, and a number of other players who are decent. The Saints have Breaux and Cameron Jordan, but they also have a number of truly horrific starters playing significant snaps. (Browner is an absolute worst CB in the league and he’s a starter for them). Remember though that NO fired their DC Rob Ryan and replaced him with Dennis Allen. Having two weeks to prepare, I would expect NO to play a little better defensively, though I don’t believe we’ll see a similar turnaround as we did with the Lions. But you know that there is one team in this matchup that did step up their game on the defensive end. The Texans have been excellent on that side in their last 3 games. Their average DVOA in those three has been -31%. For comparison purposes, Broncos lead the league with a -24% defensive DVOA this year. Houston is getting Kareem Jackson back this week, who was the 11th ranked CB last season (according to PFF). Offensively, Hoyer is back. Take a look at the comparison between him and Brees this year:
Hoyer: 7% DVOA #10; 68 QBR #7; 4.3 TD/INT rate
Brees: 12% DVOA #8; 71 QBR #5; 2.2 TD/INT rate
For those indicating that the Saints will have a large advantage at QB in this matchup, the numbers tell us that’s inaccurate. Hoyer has been a top-10 QB this year when looking at rate stats and has played just as well as Brees. Overall, this number feels a little short. My model has this one at -5 HOU, indicating they’re a slightly better team than the Saints. The odds-makers have these teams ranked ‘evenly’ in this matchup. Seems like they are expecting a potentially significant improvement from the Saints D, at least in the short-term. Then again it looks like it’s moving back to -3.5 already.
Lean: HOU -3 (PASS at -3.5)
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MIN @ ATL -1.5
Remember when Atlanta needed massive comebacks against PHI, NYG, and DAL to start out the year? Well, after going 5-0, this team is only 1-4 in the last 5 games. This team has averaged an offensive DVOA of -15% during this span, playing like a bottom-5 offense in this time-span. This week they’ll be without one of their best offensive weapons as Devonta Freeman is out. (Hankerson is out as well after reinjuring his hammy) Vikings will be without Harrison Smith, the #1 ranked safety by PFF, so Atlanta’s offense should have a chance to move the ball via the air. Of course I’m not sure that I trust Ryan much, as I think he’s a very overrated QB. Vikings are coming off a game against the Packers (same team that lost to DET and CHI at home) where they got absolutely dominated at home. This team isn’t as good as their record indicates, something I’ve been saying for a few weeks now. Bottom line is that we have two very overrated teams in this one, both dealing with some significant injuries to a key player. This one is an easy PASS from my perspective.
PASS
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STL @ CIN -9
From Nick Foles to Case Keenum and now back to Nick Foles. The guy is atrocious ranking 30th in DVOA with a -30% mark, 31st in QBR with a 33, and 36th in PY/A with 5.9 (league average is 6.5). He’s a big reason why the Rams rank 32nd offensively. Cincy on the other hand is ranked as the #1 offense in the league. Both teams have top-10 defenses. Based on these rankings it’s pretty clear that the Bengals are a significantly better team overall. Coming off 2 straight losses and playing at home, I think the motivation level should be pretty high here. Rams’ only viable way to move the chains offensively is with Gurley, but the Bengals run-D has averaged -27% DVOA in the last 3 weeks while allowing fewer than 83 rushing yards per game in each. If they shut him down, then I’m not sure how Rams score enough points to get a cover in this one. Defensively, this team has struggled with their pass-rush recently, as Quinn is out and Chris Long just came back last week. Cincy put up 31 points on Arizona’s 4th ranked D on the road last week. If they can do the same thing at home against the Rams, this one could be over by halftime.
Lean: CIN -9
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TB @ IND -3
The Colts are 0-4 ATS as favorites this year and 5-1 ATS as an underdog. They’re a 3-point favorite in this matchup. A couple of key injuries for Indy in this one. First, Anthony Castonzo is out. He is one of their better offensive linemen, and being a left-tackle, probably the most important one. Tampa’s defense has played really well lately and they rank 10th on the season in ASR% (Adjusted Sack Rate %). They are also 5th defensively against the run, so Matt Hasselback will have to win this game with his arm, which is an issue in itself. Second key injury is to Mike Adams, Indy’s safety. With V-Jax now healthy, Tampa has two big receivers capable of making big plays. Without Adams in center-field and with a banged up Vontae Davis (will play but not sure he’s 100%), Indy’s secondary could have some issues. Remember, they lost their stud DL Henry Anderson for the season (2 weeks ago), so stopping the run will be an issue as well. The Bucs have a chance to move the ball in this one, possibly in a similar way they did it last week against Philly (over 500 yards of offense). One interesting factor is the difference in Tampa’s offensive output on the road compared to at home this year. The Bucs’ offense ranks 28th with a -14% DVOA at home this year, but they turn into a juggernaut on the road with a +10% DVOA, ranking 5th. (For comparison sake, New England is 3rd with a +13% DVOA on the road). Not sure if it’s just something ‘random’ or if there is something to it, but an interesting difference in performance levels. Winston has been progressing as a passer, Doug Martin is proving to be a very good NFL RB once again, and the defense is beginning to play at a consistently high level. I believe Tampa is a ‘better’ team in this matchup.
Lean: TB +3
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NYG @ WAS +2.5
Last week I discussed the difference in Washington’s performance on the road vs at home. Well, the home/away split is just as drastic for the Giants, in the very same way. Let’s compare both offenses:
WAS Home: +19% DVOA #4 / WAS Away: -32% DVOA #32
NYG Home: +18% DVOA #7 / NYG Away: -17% DVOA #28
Just in case you weren’t aware, Washington is at home this week while the Giants are on the road. New York will also be without their top-2 offensive linemen (Pugh and Richburg). Washington only ranks 23rd at rushing the passer, but they should have a little more success doing so this week. One thing to remember is that Giants have owned Washington lately, going 5-0 SU and ATS against them in the last 5 meetings. They won 32-21 earlier this year at home as a -3 point home favorite. Now they’re at almost the same number, though this game’s on the road. It’s important to note that the first meeting was a Thursday Night game, so obviously a tough spot for the visitors to be in. Washington had 3 critical turnovers to New York’s 0, and that was pretty much the difference in the game. Washington also was without D-Jax and DeAngelo Hall was injured early in the game. Both will play this time around. I think we can expect a closer game in the rematch. One other note is that Prince Amukamara is back this week and JPP has established himself in excellent form before the BYE. New York ranks 20th defensively and has the 32nd ranked pass-rush, but both should improve going forward. Overall, this is not an easy game to decipher. The spread moving from +1 WAS to +2.5 now is interesting, and could be indicative of potentially strong showing by the Giants here, regardless of the home/away offensive splits. Even so, keep in mind that Washington is 4-1 at home, and it’s hard to fade them in a divisional ‘revenge’ game.
PASS
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OAK @ TEN +1
The Raiders have lost 3 in a row now, getting absolutely dominated in the last two (vs MIN and @ DET). Both MIN and DET have been playing solid defense lately and the Titans won’t be an easy matchup either. Their pass-D ranks 8th overall and they have the #1 ranked pass-rush in the league. Oakland’s #1 ranked O-line against the pass will be tested. One major issue for the Raiders is their defense. They’ve allowed 38 and 30 points to PIT and MIN, and were lucky to only give up 16 (not including the safety) to Detroit, who were moving the ball at will on ‘em. Now they’ll once again go on the road, playing the 1 PM EST game, while facing a QB who is going to start running the ball a lot more. The Titans had 10-days to prepare and I think Mariota is going to have a big game in this one as he’s getting his #1 WR Wright back. Oakland is 0-3 ATS as a favorite this year and I think this could be a good spot for the Titans to end their 5-game home losing streak in 2015.
Lean: TEN +1
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BUF @ KC -5.5
The Chiefs have been one of the better teams in the league over the last 6 weeks or so. They’ve primarily done it with their defense, which excelled by holding opponents to a 12 PPG-against average and -27% DVOA (Denver leads the league with a -24% DVOA over the course of the season). Now they’ll take on a Bills team that is playing their 3rd straight road game while being on a short week. A big factor in KC’s favor is their 3rd ranked pass-rush going up against a Bills O-line that ranks 30th in ASR% allowed. Tyrod Taylor has been playing hurt for some time now and at any moment a big hit could knock him out of a game. On the other side you have the 3rd ranked KC run-game going up against the 27th ranked Buffalo run-D. Missing their stud DT Kyle Williams already, Bills will be without Mario Williams this week. Spencer Ware should have a very productive day for the Chiefs in this one. Buffalo is coming off 3 straight strong efforts (MIA and @ NYJ were wins and a tough loss @ NE last week), where they had to play on a Thursday Night on the road a few weeks back and on a Monday night @ NE last week. This one feels like a major flat spot for them.
Lean: KC -5.5
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MIA @ NYJ -4
This is 4th road game in 5 weeks for the Dolphins, so no wonder the line is moving away from them. Revis is out for this one but the Jets will get Richardson back. These teams met in London earlier this year with Jets being -3 favorites on a neutral field. Now at home, and they’re only a point higher. In that first meeting New York totally dominated the game – 5.9 YPP vs 3.9 YPP for Miami; 200 more yards of total offense; 37.5 minutes of possession. Jets are a bad matchup for Miami as they rank 1st at defending the run. Campbell wants to stay more committed to the run game than Philbin, but if New York can shut that down and force Tannehill to try and win the game, they should have an advantage defensively even without Revis. Jarvis Landry missed practice on Friday and both him and Rishard Mathews are listed as questionable. Both should play but I’m assuming their effectiveness will be lower.
Lean: NYJ -4
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SD @ JAX -5.5
Now here’s something that you just don’t see that often. Jags being slightly favored is one thing, but Jags being favorite by more than a FG is a totally different story. Still it’s interesting to see this line shift from -4 to -5.5 now, with majority of the bets being on the underdog. Keep in mind that San Diego is playing all the way on the East Coast, in a 1 PM EST time slot. They’re dealing with a ton of injuries on the offensive side of the ball, they can’t run the ball (rank 30th while Jags rank 2nd in stopping the run), and feature one of the worst defenses in the league. My mind is saying “SD” here but something tells me there’s a reason why the bookmakers have Jags listed as such a heavy favorite.
PASS
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ARZ @ SF +10
After playing two huge games against SEA and CIN the last two weeks, this is a major let-down spot for the Cardinals. I don’t have to tell you how much better the Cardinals are than San Fran, but I really hate this spot for them. Laying double-digits on the road against a divisional opponent is also not a very good long-term proposition. It gets even more difficult when you realize that before the season started the bookmakers had SF -2 in this matchup.
PASS
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PIT @ SEA -3.5
Take a look at Seattle’s wins this year: CHI (no Cutler), DET (barely, should have lost), SF (twice), and Dallas (won by 1 point against a team led by Cassell). Here are their losses: STL, GB, CIN, CAR, ARZ. Sure all of these were very close games with Seattle having a lead in the 4th quarter of each, but the point is that this team has had trouble closing out games against the ‘better’ teams in this league. Pittsburgh is another one of those ‘better’ teams as they rank 7th overall with a 4th ranked offense and a 14th ranked defense. Keep in mind, these numbers probably should be even better, as Roethlisberger missed a number of games this year. Matchup wise, you have Pittsburgh’s 6th ranked run D going up against a Seattle team that relies on the run to move the ball. Lynch is out of course and Rawls is starting in his place. The kid runs hard, but it’s still a downgrade from what Lynch brings to the table. In addition, Pittsburgh ranks 12th in ASR% defensively, while Seattle has the worst O-line in the league. Two key advantages on the defensive end and of course Roethlisberger and two stud WR’s on the offensive one. I think there’s only one place to look in this one.
PIT +3.5
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NE @ DEN +2.5
Wow, NE at less than a FG, time to run to the betting window, right? Well, maybe not. Remember the Pats are without Edelman, Dion Lewis, and now also Amendola. They are also without Aaron Dobson and Keshawn Marting, WR next in line after Amendola, is questionable. Remember the Pats have also lost a few linemen recently, so this offense is really falling apart. Now they’ll get to go on the road to face the #1 ranked defense in the league. And as good as the Broncos have played, they’ve been even sicker at home with a DVOA mark of -34%, best in the league. The Bills made Brady very uncomfortable on Monday, and that’s one of the worst pass-rushes in the league. Denver ranks 2nd in that department. This could be a long day for Brady and Co. In addition, remember, the loss of Manning is irrelevant, as he led the Broncos offense to the 32nd rank in the league. Anything but Manning should be either ‘better’ or the ‘same’, and Osweiler showed to be pretty effective in his first start. Now he gets Sanders back. I think we can expect to see a very close game, but with Pats playing on a short-week and in a tough environment, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them record their first “L” in the loss column.
Lean: DEN +2.5
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BAL @ CLE -3.5
The second worst team in the league is laying over a FG to someone? Normally, I’d love to jump all over this but I must remind myself that Matt “Pick-6” Schaub is now the starter for the Ravens. I would probably need a few more points to even consider backing him.
PASS
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