Should be up a lot more this year based off the great record.. Considering going to the 1-2-3 system next season as long term over the past two years I am hitting aRound 59%.. GOW's have struggled but think that changes this week.. Really like this play..
4* Minnesota Vikings +2.5 -110 *GOW* *WINNER*
At +3.5, this would have been a 5* play, that's how strong I feel about it. I am 14-4 on Vikings plays the past two years posting and feel very comftorable capping this team. First off, If Atlanta closed at -3.5 home against indy, this +2.5 for minnesota is big time value. it's become apparant that atlanta is just not very good. This team has Matt Ryan, Freeman, Julio, Trufant but a very flawed roster outside of those four players. The Oline is still a problem. The vikings struggle against power running teams.. But the Falcons OLine is a zone blocking scheme, which requires more athletic lineman. The vikings speed on defense closes on running backs fast.. The best way to attack this defense is going right at them with power, which is not Atlanta's strength. Julio Jones is the one guy that has a plus advantage vs rhodes/Newman, as he does vs every corner in the league. But we've seen that a good wideout can't carry a team. This atlanta squad has lost five straight games against the spread, including SU losses to SF, Tampa, NO, and Indy. It would be six straight if not for an overtime pick 6 against Kirk Cousins. While atlanta has been bad ATS, this vikings team is 8-2 ATS this season. There offensive line is weak, and it shows against physical defenses that can out them behind in the down and distance. But Atlanta is weak in the trenches, and that gives adrian and Teddy a plus matchup. this Atlanta defense has the least amount of sacks in the NFL. The Vikings strength defensively plays into what atlanta wants to do offensively, and Atlanta can not expose the Vikings weakness on offense. We know with time this vikings team has plenty of playmakers on the field, led obviously by the leagues leading rusher, adrian Peterson. The matchup is great for this minnesota team against this cold atlanta team, and I believe we see an outright win, but will gladly take the 2.5 points for insurance
2* Dallas Cowboys PK -110 *LOSS*
We know the inevitable carolina loss is coming.. Think it's here against Dallas. Carolina is dependent on there front playing well. When they couldn't get a pass rush in the second half of the colts/Packers game there defense crumbled, as there secondary IMO is pretty average and relies on the positive game flow and there front 7. Tillman is an underrated loss for this team. Romo's return wi give dallas a spark and I think they can finish the season hot.. Dallas defense is underrated in there front 7, and can cover Carolina's outside wide outs 1 on 1.. Greg Hardy may wreck havoc against Michael Oher in a matchup that should motivate the hell Out of the superior player, Hardy. Public is all over carolina but line is moving in dallas favor.. I played this in the morning at PK but game okay to bet at current lines of 1-1.5
2* New York Giants -2.5 -115 *LOSS*
1* Tampa Bay Bucs +3 -120 *LOSS*
1* Denver Broncos +3 -120 *WIN*
1* Saints/Texans Over 48 *LOSS*
1* Philly Eagles +3 -120 *LOSS*
1* Steelers/Seahawks over 47 -110 *WIN*