BRONCOS +1.5 (1st half)
If you are a weekly reader to my thread I try to relate the psychological aspects within the game to the normal everyday situations that one can relate to as so you can see where I am coming from in my selections. These analogies are never more evident than tonight in Denver. Two future hall of famers will lead their respective teams in a battle of unbeaten where the victor will make a valid claim that their teams will be a serious factors come playoff time.
I first thing I will do is take a look at a reversal line. The reversal line is if these two teams were playing tonight’s game on the others home field and what would the line be to gain some perspective. What we have here is GB-3. With incorporating a normal 3 point home field advantage we can see that on a neutral site this line would be a GB-6. Now by placing this game in Lambeau it would inflate the line making the Packers being a 9 point favorite. Seriously? Would you lay 9 with the Pack if this game reversed fields and they played this game in Green Bay!? What this tells me initially is this line is a vast overlay as my assessment is that the Broncos should be small (under 3) favorite.
Now I know that Manning v Rodgers match-up would have been more epic about 3 years ago when Manning was performing at his usual high caliber level but although I do agree that Peyton is a shell of his former self there is something to be said for a future hall of famer who has pride, with a week of rest, at home, and going up against a threat to his manhood in Rodgers. In addition to Manning wanting to show the world on a national television stage that he is still in the conversation as an elite QB; the fact that the entire Bronco team must have felt a collective slap in the face as they clicked on the internet Monday morning only to find out that they are a 6-0 team, that has been a playoff stalwart, with a hall of fame QB, with the NFL’S top ranked defense, and are actually a home underdog. If that isn’t enough they are being disrespected from the nation by a team that should have lost to the Chargers while giving up 500+ yards passing , were losing at half to Chicago, and were out-gained at home by St. Louis. The Packers have played only 2 road games this season. One was at Chicago in Week 1 where the Bears lead 13-10 at half and the other was in Week 3 at San Francisco where the Pack led 7-3, really? We are in Week 8 and the Packers have not been on the road since Week 3 and have a collective 17-16 total point lead in the 1st half against the 49ers and Bears (Remember my “MO” breakdown). For as good as the Packers have been at home in the 1st half this season (dominate) they have been easily as shaky on the road in the same spot. This Packer club is a team that plays with a confident-cocky-swagger at home which just doesn’t travel with them when they are in the same situation away from the cozy confines of Lambeau Field.
Remember when one has performed at a high level for a long time and currently still is a force in your chosen industry and is being told that their not that good, they have no chance, and are expected to lose to another that they feel is not on their historical level, in their “backyard,” will make Manning highly motivated to prove to all that the predicting of his imminent demise has been highly overestimated.
In the end I grant you betting against Rodgers is not something I feel comfortable doing on a consistent basis but with the inflated line, suspect road Packer road cohesion, Pack with a NFC undefeated (playoff positioning) Panther team on deck, and a home dog Bronco club that is highly motivated to make a statement I fell this is great spot for Denver. I look for the Broncos fueled by the "amped" up home crowd’s energy to come out flying and build a lead early and get the cover in the 1st half. I personally think they hang on to win but my respect for Rodgers talent and the Packers winning mentality keep me off the entire game but it would not shock me in the very least if the Broncos send a message to the rest of the league that they are not as "washed-up" the “gasbags” on TV say they are and win the game outright!
OTHER PLAYS:
BEARS +.5 (1st half)
LAST WEEK:
1-1-0
RECORD TO DATE:
12-8-1
GOOD FORTUNE TO ALL!-PHD