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Betting Against the Public is Overrated

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Thread Starter Betting Against the Public is Overrated
3Bets
Joined: 10/18/2009
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 grabbed this from another forum.. this is so true in todays age of sports betting:

 

"I know many people who will just bet against the public or bet against public teams and it continues to baffle me as to why. Yes, 5 years ago and further back than that I am sure there was money to be made this way, but that isn't the case anymore. Since the Internet was founded this angle has become weaker and weaker. Bettors have become more internet savvy and are able to line shop where as just a few years ago many players had just 1 out and maybe the Local Newspaper to compare lines. Don Best has become the single most dominating factor in Sportsbooks' lines, you may have 22 outs and there is a possibility of at least 15 of them using the exact same line, rarely will you see a book move off action anymore, they just follow the big boys on screen no matter what the players are betting. To illustrate my point, I was in the offices of a rather large Sportsbook on an NFL Sunday and they were 52 Dimes over on the Favorite -6, Grande, Cris and Pinnacle all moved from -6 to -5, this BM moved his game from -6(where he was already $52,000 over) to -5???????? I was in shock to say the least, but this happens in 90% of the offices offshore. Public money does not drive the line anymore, Don Best Screen drives the line now, so what does this mean to us as bettors???? The people who make the line(LVSC or Keith Glantz) are now concerned with beating the wiseguys when they send the openers to their clients, not looking for 2 way action anymore! If they admit it or not, openers are now designed to beat Billy Walters, Billy Baxter, Pokers players, etc.... they are not concerned with beating Joe Public, Joe Public cant hurt their clients bottom line like Billy Walters can. In the past for example if the true line on Dallas Cowboys was -6, LVSC would send out 7 to thier clients knowing they would get buried with favorite money on the public team like the Cowboys, Today, with Don Best and other internet sources for lines and the abundance of wiseguys, if the true line is Dallas -6, LVSC will send -6, more concerned with Billy Walters looking to take the dog +7, then being worried about the Public laying the -6 on the favorite, getting those extra 1, 1.5, 2pts against Public teams doesn't happen anymore, you are now losing the value you had in the past betting against the public.

Some other will argue that the public still loses. Yes, it is true the Public still loses but not because they hit 35-45%, the public loses because of poor money management and they lose by making sucker bets like parlays and teasers without an edge, by simply fading the public you are not going to guarantee yourself a profit, but sure enough there are many people out there that simply fade the public year after year and expect to make money!"

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Very interesting comments. I will consider them as I approach the gaming window at the Laughlin hotel at which I am staying tomorrow morning after a quite filling buffet breakfast at the Edgewater.


stunner91
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I was thinking the same thing
J. Warwick
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I couldnt give a damn how the public is betting. If you cap a game and you feel strongly on it, play it. The public does win every once in a while

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tonydaguru
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 Interesting read 3bets.  I have to agree with you to some extent.  I think the landscape of sports betting has changed, and thus the oddmakers, and bookmakers have most likely changed their approach.

However, I don't think it's as black and white.  There are definite times to fade the public, and times where it makes sense to follow the public. 

There are no absolutes in sports betting.  It has been, and always will be about being selective and picking your spots.

Interesting article either way.  Thanks for posting

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hmm



[edited by: halo2009 at 2:55 PM (GMT -8) on Wed, Sep 29 2010]

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dfresh
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 If you let line movement dictate your betting, you won't win.  Set your lines before the opening lines come out, if you have significant value against the opening line then bet it.  Be your own wiseguy, plus you don't let emotions get involved in your wagers.

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halo2009
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dfresh

 If you let line movement dictate your betting, you won't win.  Set your lines before the opening lines come out, if you have significant value against the opening line then bet it.  Be your own wiseguy, plus you don't let emotions get involved in your wagers.

Yes

CFB 2013-2014 NFL 2013-2014 Twitter Plays
Sides: 98-52-2 (63.55 units) Sides: 53-59-5 (-8.96 units) Sides: 95-75-3 (29.04 units)
Totals: 55-50-2 (2.40 units) Totals: 31-30 (-11.75 units) Totals: 16-21-1 (-16.30 units)
Overall: 153-102-4 (65.95 units) (60%) Overall: 84-89-5 (-20.71 units) (49%) Overall: 111-96-4 (12.74 units)

 

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gill alexander
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If we gave gold stars around these parts anymore, I would absolutely nominate this thread for one.


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