Everyone has opinions - here are mine - please feel free to provide feedback. I've included the current "average" futures bet. I hi-lited the ones I would consider that offer the most value - and the best potential hedges later in the season. I don't do RSW totals - just too much for me with MLB still going on - plus, I don't like books holding my money for 5+ months. Just like MLB.
New England +350: - we know they can. They don't have many weaknesses and have the experience.
Cincinnati +1100: We know their offense is working - averaging almost 30 points per game. Big comeback win against Seattle should do wonders going forward. I'll know more when they play at Arizona (assuming the Cardinals are still healthy and playing well) - schedule in their favor after this week at Buffalo - by before playing at Pittsburgh. They HAVE given up point the last few weeks to less than stellar offenses. Drawback with the Bengals might well lie on the sidelines.
Denver +1000: People don't question their defense, and defense does typically win championships (unless you're the 2015 Seahawks and play calling is an issue). People now question their offense, and I am one of them. If they're going to play low scoring games they run the risk of losing a game on "that one mistake" - more value in the Bengals at the same price, IMO. They do have a favorable schedule, getting Green Bay at home - huge game potentially against Cincinnati in December - yes, they're 5-0 but still haven't beaten a quality opponent. Weak Division might help secure a first round bye.
Green Bay +325: See New England - experience, talent, coaching, and a huge HFA. Some tough road games at Carolina and at Arizona - but who is really going to challenge them for at the very least a first round bye. Nobody.
Atlanta +1500: I don't know what the odds were five weeks ago - but the value is clearly a ton less. Hard not to imagine them a playoff team in that division - so still some value. I'm still not convinced that their defense is THAT much better than it has been, based on the points they've allowed to to who they've allowed them. This week's game at New Orleans is a big test for them - division road game, then ten days to prepare for AT Tennessee. Fairly favorable schedule after that - the jury is still WAY out for me, giving up 28 to Dallas and needing overtime to beat Washington, at home. 5-0 team that caught some "better now" teams before they got "better, Giants and Eagles. First year HC has been there, but not with this team. Probably - not - enough - defense.
Carolina +3000: What is encouraging for the Panthers is that they are about to get Kueckly back, and he is one of the few defensive game - changers. They've done what they had to do - but have yet to beat a good team, really. I just cannot see a Cam Newton-led offense, without Benjamin, wining the whole thing. Playing a pissed of Seattle team this week - they CAN win the game, IMO - but they've got a ton of tough games, but four of their last six are TOUGH road games, sandwiched around a late home date with the Falcons. I doubt they can score enough, at least when they games' on the line. There a reason why they are +3000 and the Falcons are +1500. I don't think there's THAT much of a difference - but there IS a reason - scheduling the 2H.
Arizona +1400: Clearly if the Falcons are +1500 - then there's value with the Cardinals. Many of them have bee there before, Bruce Arians has been there a lot - and they can win with defense. They've got a reasonably tough schedule later on, but most of those harder games are at home. Seattle isn't going away THAT quickly - if Arians can beat his old team - the Steelers, this week - after the Steelers looking like sh*t on MNF - they've got winnable home games before a trip to Seattle. If they win that game at Seattle, and stay healthy, my guess is it could be between them and Atlanta for the other first round bye - one of which I am almost conceding to the Packers. Clearly the preseason value was much better, but that's always the case with some teams. Taking them to win might provide a great hedge (I do that) in the playoffs, because they'll be there.
Seattle +1000: Reasonable value considering where this number was at the beginning of the season. They're still defending NFC Champs with unquestionably the best HFA in football. Chancellor back - if they stop trying to make JImmy Graham a blocking TE - they've lost to good teams and on the road - so I wouldn't write them off quite yet.
Teams that might surprise and at least make the playoffs - hence hedge value:
New York Jets +4000: Not that much worse than a team like the Panthers - go figure. They're defense can win any game, they've got talent at the skill positions on offense, and with a dynamic quarterback would be scary. Fitzpatrick is at least an Ivy League guy that can think. Very under the radar team, IMO.
Buffalo +4000: See Jets - not the same defense as the Jets - but perhaps "good enough" - and without a quarterback that's going to lead the 80 yards drive late in the game. They've got the offensive talent, beat teams they were supposed to, and played the Giants tough. Very soft schedule the second have. If they are priced the same as the Jets - they don't have the same value, IMO - but, if they can beat the Bengals - we could reconsider based on SOS.
Pittsburgh +3000: For all the talk of the youth on defense and the loss of key veterans, their defense is playing well, so if they get Bryant and Ben back on the field sooner rather than later, and can somehow beat Arians' and his Cardinals return this week. I doubt they can go through New England - but there's really not much in their way aside from the Bengals, and they've got the Bengals at home in two weeks - and finish the season at Baltimore and at Cleveland - so perhaps a wild card team - more value in the Jets, IMO.
San Diego +4000: They're still the Chargers and still make too many mistakes - but, there's always the playoff shot. Huge issue for them is going on the road in December/January to Ohio, Massachusetts, Colorado - or wherever. Have not won a road game and their two wins (not counting MNF) were against the Lions and Browns, barely, and at home.
Minnesota +5000: 5D lists them at +12500 which is not unusual to find futures with that much difference - so shop around if you can. Throw out that first debacle in San Francisco and the Vikings have played pretty well. They've got a soft mid-season and some tough road games down the stretch, but perhaps they reach their peak and are playing well. They could be a team nobody wants to play in December - and given the "rest" of the NFC, especially their own division, they could find themselves a wild card team.
Teams that can't:
San Francisco - even if the DO get better, they're not passing the Seahawks AND Cardinals.
New Orleans - again, even if they get "better" they're too many games behind too many team in their Division.
Detroit: There is nothing that can be said here.
Jacksonville: See lack of talent and 65% full stands in home games.
Houston: I over estimated them - see lack of quarterback - and surprisingly, defense and HC.
Kansas City: Rip those tickets up - where is a defense OR an offense -
Oakland: Del Rio WILL have them competitive - in a couple of years. J'ville should have kept him.
Miami: Not enough talent - good division - internal issues.
Bears: They should have kept Lovie and let Cutler go back to Vanderbilt to coach.
Rams: See Nick Foles and any consistent offense, Cardinals, and Seattle. Apathetic fans.
Tampa Bay: Like the Saints - too far behind too many teams. Rookie QB - suspect defense.
Indianapolis: With or without Luck - they've got two problems. Defense, and New England.
Baltimore: What happened to the defense. No Lewis, Ngata -
Cleveland: They'll win some games - but can't seem to stop anyone - see lack of talent.
Tennessee: When they both mature and learn how to finish and win close games. Next year - value.
The NFC East: Yes, someone will win it - and now the Giants look better than the rest - Eagles coming around, maybe. Dallas just not healthy but still the favorite IMO to win the division, provided they get Romo back soon. Big game at BYG who they've already beaten - they won at Philadelphia, and have a favorable schedule. But, they're Dallas. It'll take someone getting hot at the right time as the Giants did in 2007. And getting healthy.