Atlanta (-3) at New Orleans - The 5-0 Falcons will likely have crossed the "key" number of 3 at every book by Tuesday morning. At least that's what the early signs show as the road favorite is attracting almost 90% of all bets. That's despite the fact they've had to come back from a deficit in three of the last four games. The 1-4 Saints snapped a six-game home losing streak (in OT) against Dallas (no Romo) two weeks ago. Atlanta swept the season series (2-0 SU/ATS) last year.
Denver (-4) at Cleveland - This number has bounced around a little bit as the Broncos offense continues to underperform while Browns' QB McCown just set a franchise record for passing yardage last week. But, as shaky as the Denver offense has been, the defense continues to be incredible and that's potentially huge against a Cleveland team that is just 1 of 2 in the league to be 5-0 Over at this point. The Broncos are 4-1 Under. One of their top players on defense (DE Ware) is out two weeks.
Cincinnati (-2) at Buffalo - The 5-0 Bengals (4-0-1 ATS) are most certainly for real after coming back from 17 down, at home, to beat Seattle. The public is buying in too as they originally opened up as a 1-pt dog here against a Buffalo team off a somewhat "phony" win over Tennessee. The Bills have alternated wins and losses through five games. Three of the Bengals wins have been by five points or less. Their OC, Hue Jackson, has been drawing rave reviews for his somewhat unconventional schemes. It will be interesting to see him match up with a Rex Ryan coached defense.
Kansas City at Minnesota (-3.5) - Common sense says this number will go up due to the Jamaal Charles injury. The Vikings are off a bye and if you like them, I'd say bet now. KC went 10-6 ATS last year, but has failed to cover four in a row this year, three of those losses coming to unbeaten teams (DEN, GB, CIN). Last week was rock bottom as they blew a 17-3 lead at home to the Bears and failed to score after the Charles injury. These two are a combined 8-1 Under the total (KC 4-1, MIN 4-0). The Vikes are 0-2 SU/ATS off their bye the L2 years.
Houston (-1) at Jacksonville - The loser here is the de facto "worst team in the AFC." The QB situation, on both sides, has gone from "bad" to "unsettled." It will likely be Brian Hoyer starting for the Texans. Blake Bortles (shoulder) will likely play for the Jags, but monitor his status throughout the week. Houston won both meetings LY, 27-13 and 23-17. They are just 5-13 SU L18 road games, but 2-0 SU and ATS as a favorite of -3 or less. Jacksonville is just 5-11 SU L16 home games.
Chicago at Detroit (-3) - Yes, the 0-5 Lions are favored. Be on the lookout for some -2.5's that could should likely appear during the week. The Lions beat the Bears twice last year and are 4-0 SU against them the L2 years. Everyone was burying Chicago after three games, but w/ Jay Cutler under center they've been respectable, including B2B wins. Really, aside from the six quarters of Jimmy Clausen, they've been quite competitive. Bears are 1-4 SU/ATS off B2B wins the prev 2 seasons.
Washington at NY Jets (-5.5) - The Jets (who have outgained all four opponents thus far) enter in off a bye. Surprisingly, this is the fourth time they will have been favored this season. The Redskins, who have been an underdog in every game, have lost straight up 25 of the L30 times they've been in that role (10-20 ATS). They are also 2-16 SU L18 road games. After a bye week, NYJ is 0-2 SU/ATS L2 years.
Arizona (NL) at Pittsburgh - The Steelers play Monday night, so no line yet. Arizona joins Cleveland as the only two 5-0 Over teams in the league.
Miami at Tennessee (-2.5) - Another ugly AFC matchup. Had Tennessee been able to hold on against Buffalo (HC Whisenhunt went far too conservative), there might be some good value in going AGAINST them here, but alas that is not the case. The Dolphins are off a bye and a coaching change. I don't know about you, but I was not impressed by interim HC Dan Carpenter's press conference. This could be another "Mike Singletary situation." The Fins are another team that's 0-2 SU/ATS off the bye L2 years.
Carolina at Seattle (-6.5) - I would say the Seahawks are still a borderline top five team despite the 2-3 record. Meanwhile, I don't know what to make of the 4-0 Panthers, easily the weakest of the six remaining unbeaten teams. They've beaten Jacksonville, Houston, New Orleans (no Brees) and Tampa Bay. They were outgained 411-244 by the Bucs, but forced five turnovers. Seattle is 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7 pts or less the L3 years. Carolina is 0-4 vs. Russell Wilson, losing those games by an average of 11.3 PPG.
San Diego at Green Bay (-9.5) - Anyone want to step in front of the Packers at home? They are 5-0 ATS (overall) at this point. All three home wins this year have been by double digits. The Chargers play Monday night. This will be a late start, which isn't necessarily an advantage per se for San Diego, but it's probably better than a 1 PM ET start.
Baltimore (-2.5) at San Francisco - Early money has actually poured in on the 49ers, if you can believe that. The Ravens have not covered a game all year (0-4-1 ATS) and are off an embarrassing home loss to the Browns. SF took the Giants to the limit Sunday night, but came up short. The Ravens swept their non-conference slate last year.
New England (-9.5) at Indianapolis - I guess we'll find out how spiteful the Patriots are here (1st meeting since "DeflateGate"). Since 2012 (Andrew Luck's arrival), the Colts are 19-2 SU in division games and 23-4 SU in games decided by seven points or less. Their three wins this year are against Tennessee (by two), Jacksonville (by three) and Houston (by seven). This is a massive step up in class and even with a returning Andrew Luck could be in for a very long night.
NY Giants at Philadelphia (-3.5) - The Giants have turned things around somewhat w/ three straight wins. They've led by double digits in all five games. Philly is off - by far - its best performance of the season. The Eagles swept the season series last year, including a 27-0 shutout here at home.