i know, only squares play overs and the sharps look for unders. and TV games usually have inflated totals....
but i like the over tonight.
San Diego is giving up 27.5 ppg. sure, they held Cincy to 24... but their other games have been vs. Detroit, Minnesota, and Cleveland. hardly offensive juggernauts. We know Pitt has a suspect secondary, and with LB Ryan Shazier out tonight, that might neutralize the pass rush vs a banged up SD line. Rivers is playing well and gets Antonio Gates back tonight. Vick got some practice time with a long week and he gets WR Martavius Bryant back. also, this just in: Leveon Bell and Antonio Brown are very good at football.
I lean toward Pitt (at +3.5) but obviously with Vick on the road, anything could happen in this game. (but keep in mind: tonight's stadium will be half filled with Steelers fans... so not a big advantage for the Chargers.)
Pitt has shown tendencies to go for 2-pt conversions... and with guys like Keenan Allen (and Rivers and Gates and Vick and Bell/Brown, etc) i see some scoring tonight. both teams are desperate to win to stay in some hope of competing for a wild card, so both coaches might throw the kitchen sink into this game. neither one has a dominant defense so I expect both to have success on offense.
we dont need a crazy shoot out... a simple 28-21 or 27-24 gets us over the total.
what do you guys think?
(also, a Pitt/Over teaser might be a safe play too.... get Pitt up to +8.5--9.5, depending on where the line us, and then tease that Over down to around 40.)