Over 43 DET/SEA
My model has this game 28-18 Seattle, so seems like the spread is spot on. But what 'might' not be spot on is the total, which is about a FG lower than I'm predicting.
The Seahawks have lost on the road @ STL (divisional opponent that just also beat Arizona on the road!) and @ GB (one of the top teams in the NFL), and have dominated a Bears team that was without Cutler and Jeffery, and is considered by many to be the worst team in the league. By comparison Detroit is 0-3 but lost @ SD, @ MIN, and vs DEN at home, a pretty tough schedule overall. Things won't get easier today. Defensively this Seattle team is better with Chancellor in the lineup but last week's effort should be taken with the 'grain of salt' (again, Claussen was Chicago's QB!). Detroit will provide a much tougher test offensively. One absence today that could be a factor is that of Brandon Mebane, Seattle's run-stuffing DT. Lions have really struggled running the ball YTD (dead last in efficiency), but maybe they'll have a little more luck today. Bell, a major plodder, is out, which should enable Abdullah, Riddick, and Zenner (pre-season star) to see more carries. All of those guys are much more explosive, so this bodes well for Detroit's run-game. If they could have some success running the ball, this will open up the field for both CJ and Tate to make bigger plays. I think Detroit will have a little more success in that department, and also via the short-passing game. Overall, let's not forget that Seattle ranks 22nd against the pass and 16th against the run this season. Are they better than this? Yes, I believe they are, but this team hasn't been an 'elite' defense yet this season, and last week doesn't count in my opinion. I think Detroit should have decent success moving the ball. (Also Bruce Irving got banged up in practice this week - might not be as explosive when rushing the passer in this one)
On the other side, we have a Lions D that doesn't stand a chance. Detroit will once again be without DeAndre Levy, their best pass-rusher. Ziggy Ansah, the 5th overall draft-pick in 2013, got injured against Denver and sat out practices until Friday. He's questionable and most likely will play, but I don't think he's at 100%. The Lions rank 25th in ASR (Adjusted Sack Rate) this season and there's no reason to think that Wilson will face much pressure tonight. Marshawn Lynch is out, but the total barely even moved. If anything it's actually up about 0.5 of a point since the opener. I agree with this 'non-move' as Lynch's absence actually benefits the OVER from my perspective. Rawls did well last week, but he's an undrafted rookie and I don't see Seattle putting him in position to dominate the game the way they do with Lynch. I expect Wilson to have a huge day and the Seahawks to move the ball via the pass in this one, leading to more explosive plays and hopefully more points.
Finally, I don't know if we can overlook the 'Golden Tate' factor here. This is the first time he's facing his old 'mates and you know he'll be pumped up for this one. He typically plays on the right-side so should be matched up with Sherman for most of the day. Sherman has actually been pretty mediocre so far this season, ranking 71st out of 104 CB's by PFF, though teams typically don't throw at him much (only 8 targets) so far. Maybe the Lions will do a bit today, if for no other reason than to get Tate the ball. At the very least, Tate should have at least some insider knowledge on how to beat this Seattle secondary.
Bottom line is that I believe there's value on the OVER in this play. I think Detroit's 22nd ranked D will have a hard time stopping Seattle today as the Seahawks should approach 30 points in this one. All Detroit needs to score is about 14-17 points and I think the game has a strong shot to go OVER. With explosive play-makers on both sides - Wilson, Calvin Johnson, Abdullah, Graham, Lockett, Tate - there could be a potential for a number of big plays. Over is a strong play.
Good Luck