(-1½) New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins (game in London)
Turnovers Dictate
Jets +8 in turnovers first two games of season (both wins)
Jets -3 in loss to Eagles (NYJ outgained Phi by 92 yards last week)
Jets likely not as good as the scoreboard in their first two games, and not as bad as the scoreboard in their last game.
Coach Philbin on brink
Miami players had terrible body language later in the game against Buffalo last week.
When given the chance, owner Stephen Ross failed to endorse Philbin as the Dolphins' coach for the remainder of 2015.
According to writer Barry Jackson, Miami players are also starting to make some noise, complaining about the length and intensity of a recent practice.
MORE
Miami has played in London multiple times in the recent past – having experience with this unique trip is an advantage.
15 of last 19 Jets losses by a TD or more
Jets perhaps most improved D in NFL …
Coach Bowles likes to press corners and blitz – CB Revis perfect fit
(+9) Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Luck Struggling
Andrew Luck with shoulder injury (day to day)
Andrew Luck has thrown multiple interceptions in five straight games (tied with Carson Palmer for the longest streak in the last 15 years)
Colts Beat Up on Bad Teams
Colts against teams with losing record: 18-3 against the spread
Colts dominate in division: only one loss ATS their last 14 (12-1-1)
Colts have outscored Jacksonville by 101 points combined their last four matchups
Jags Secondary Concerns Primary
Jags had two injured defensive backs inactive for their game last week and lost three more during the game.
MORE
Jags tend to struggle even more early in seasons.
Games played Week 8 or before: Jags 3-23 straight-up (8-18 ATS)
Chuck Pagano’s conflict with the front office has become a distraction.
Colts with multiple injuries in secondary
Luck much better at home in career
Home: 21-6 SU (18-8-1 ATS)
Road: 16-14 SU (15-15 ATS)
Jags sacked only twice in last two weeks
(prior six games, sacked 33 times)
LAST WEEK
Jags dominated by NE:
First Downs: NE 35; Jags 15
Time of Possession: 10 minute advantage for NE
Jags: 114 yards of penalties
Jags rushed for just 57 yards
Colts at Ten
Luck attempted only 8 passes in the First Half
Colts shuffled their O line before the game, deactivating left guard Lance Louis and benching right guard Herremans.
Colts returned INT for TD
Colts led 14-0. Titans led 27-14. Titans scored TD to cover with 47 seconds left (two-point conversation to tie failed)
Ten with 8 more First Downs and 55 more yards gained and 10 minute Time of Possession advantage
(+6½) Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta lucky to be 3-0
Falcons first team in NFL history to start season 3-0 after trailing in 4th Quarter of all three games
Undefeated comes at a premium:
Early line (before last week’s games) on this game: Atlanta -3.5 (via Westgate)
Houston dominated last week
Texans hosting TB
First Downs: Houston 30; TB 14
Time of Possession: Houston 12 minute edge
Houston RB Alfred Blue: 139 yards on 31 carries
MORE
Atlanta when playing out of division: 4-9 SU
Dallas led 21-7 with 3 minutes left in 2nd Quarter last week vs. Atlanta
(-3) Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TB Horrible at home
Tampa at home: 15-37 ATS
Tampa as a home underdog: 7-23 against the spread
Tampa has lost 10 straight home games.
Bye next week a distraction?
Panthers have NEVER covered as favorites the week before a bye in franchise history: 0-10 ATS (via playbook)
MORE
Carolina last 11 games, have outgained (more total yards) opponents 10 times
Ron Rivera starts to seasons (SU)
2011: 1-5
2012: 1-6
2013: 1-3
2014: 2-2
2015: 3-0
Carolina traded for pass rushing specialist Jared Allen this week
Bucs at Hou last week
TB rookie K Brindza missed 3 FGs and extra point (though he made 58 yard FG)
QB Winston described the result as a “promising loss”
Winston had more deep pass attempts on Sunday (17) than he did in his first two starts combined (14).
(+5½) New York Giants at Buffalo Bills
Letdown (following underrated rivalry)
Bills 2-21 ATS the week AFTER beating the Dolphins
Giants could easily be undefeated
Giants have had at 10 point or greater 4th Quarter lead in all three games this season.
MORE
Giants vs. winning teams: 4-12 ATS (since 12/16/2012)
Coach Caughlin is 60% vs. the Vegas number
on the road in his career [58-38 ATS]
Bills at Mia
Bills led 27-0
Tyrod Taylor: 21/29 for 277 yards (3/0)
Bills scored on INT return
WR Sammy Watkins injured (unlikely to play this week)
(-3) Oakland Raiders at Chicago Bears
Raiders on road
Last 25 Raiders road games: 3-22 SU
Only third time Oakland road favorite since 2005
Raiders as a favorite: 6-19 ATS
Bears Horrible
Pro bettor Steve Fezzik rates the Bears – when quarterbacked by Jimmy Clauson – as the worst team in the NFL (3 points worse than any other team)
Bears have covered only 4 of their last 20 home games
Chicago in last 13 games: outscored 223-82 in First Half
Last Week
Bears punted on their first 10 possessions
Chicago gained only 7 First Downs and only 146 total yards.
MORE
Jimmy Clausen 2-point downgrade from Jay Cutler.
Bears traded away pass rushing specialist Jared Allen and last year’s leading tackler Jonathan Bostic.
Bears in games with over/under total greater than 44: 19-50 ATS
Though playing better of late - Oakland has scored more garbage points (once game is uncompetitive) than any team in league since start of last season … implying team is even worse than the scoreboard would indicate.
Raiders vs. team with losing record: 44-86-2 ATS (since 1993)
Raiders at Cle last week:
First win in 16 games for Raiders in Eastern Time Zone
Raiders rushed for 155 yards
Amari Cooper 134 yards receiving (245 last two games combined)
Raiders led 20-3 in the 3Q
(-3) Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins
Eagles note as impressive as score last week
Eagles: punt return TD (89 yards from Darren Sproles)
Bradford: 14/28 for 118 (1/0)
Eagles gained only 231 yards on offense (Jets gained 92 more yards)
Eagles 4-1 turnover edge
This season: Eagles have the third worst yardage differential in NFL (-221)
Washington Stats Good
Best yardage differential in NFL! +283 more yards gained than given up
Weather
Expected to be bad weather. Advantage for running team (Washington)
Extra Time
Washington last played on Thursday. Extra time always helps – but is especially valuable against Philly’s unusual offensive scheme.
MORE
Redskins have lost 8 of 10 against the spread AFTER playing Giants (worth noting game was on Thursday this time, meaning extra time to avoid letdown)
Washington as underdog: 9-18 ATS
Washington: 5-22 SU last 27 games
Washington O-line scheme/coaching liked by wiseguys
Kirk Cousins has highest interception rate of any active QB with at least 400 career passes.
When the Eagles are favored for the second week in a row: 5-22 ATS
LAST WEEK
Washington at NYG
Redskins -3 in turnovers
Washington outgained NY by 30 yards.
Wash had KO return TD (final score of game)
Washington CB DeAngelo Hall injured.
Redskins coach Jay Gruden insisted after the game that there is "no quarterback controversy, whatsoever."
(+4) Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals
H/A – strength vs. strength
Andy Reid has excelled away from home: 84-53 ATS
Last 19 road games, Chiefs have lost only 5 TIMES against the spread
Road team in Cincinnati games has covered only 13 of last 39
Cincy has covered 14 of 18 regular season home games
KC love unwarranted
The Vegas market has shown KC extreme respect, but note that KC has been outgained by 173 net yards this season (#26 in NFL)
LAST WEEK
KC played Monday Night road game vs. Green Bay
First time KC has yielded 300 yards passing since 2013.
First time KC threw a TD pass to a WR since 2013KC trailed 38-14 with 10 minutes left in the game vs. GB last week.
Alex Smith last 61 games as a starter: 41-19-1 SU
Bengals at Bal
WR Green: 227 yards on 10 receptions
Bengals led by 14 on two different occasions. Bengals scored go-ahead TD with 2:10 left in game
(+8) Cleveland Browns at San Diego Chargers
Can’t Run – Can’t Pass
Wiseguys not impressed by Manziel. McCown still graded 1 point better (but sill a far below average QB)
Last week Browns rushed for only 39 yards vs. Oakland
Browns have many good players, but not at skill positions. It’s difficult to win with such limitations in the modern NFL.
SD better than scoreboard?
SD: 5th best yardage differential in NFL (+231 yards)
MORE
Under coach McCoy, when playing out of division
San Diego has lost only 8 of 24 ATS
(The first time San Diego plays a team,
Mike McCoy has been able to hide the team’s limitations
with elite coaching, but more familiar matchups have been a problem)
Last eleven games, QB Rivers has 21 TDs and 20 INTs
Last season’s OC Kyle Shanahan leaving Browns a big loss..
Last week Browns trailed 20-3 in 3rd Q hosting Raiders.
SD at Min last week
3 SD O-lineman left the game due to injuries
QB Rivers sacked 4 times
(was replaced in 4th Quarter)
SD’s Keenan Allen: 133 yards on 12 receptions
Chargers outgained Vikings by 85 yards
(-8) Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
SF could be playing the worst in the NFL
Many recall a strong MNF performance the opening week. But consider last week:
First Downs: Arizona 28; SF 10
Yards: Arizona 446; SF 156
Time of Possession: Arizona 37 minutes; SF 23 minutes
Kaepernick: 9/19 for 67 yards (0/4)
Several professional bettors have called this the worst performance by an NFL QB in memory.
Cardinals gained more yards returning Colin Kaepernick interceptions (71) than total yards 49ers receivers gained off receptions (67)
"Their [SF’s] passing game has simplified so much," Arizona DB Mathieu said. "It was easy for us to anticipate routes and just get some good breaks on the ball."
David Malinsky – who watched the entire game, says that the San Fran team lacked effort trailing big in the 2nd half. Not a good sign.
Road limitations
Packers may be the best home team in the NFL
But on the road (since start of last season):
Green Bay 5-5 on road
outscored by 15 points
MORE
Green Bay has struggled against “read option” teams the last few seasons (such as Seattle and SF)
GB off Monday Night Home game
In that game: Aaron Rodgers: 5 TDs (0 INTs)
(+6.5) Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos
Denver now favored 48 of their last 51 games
Broncos Keep Rolling
Since the start of 2013 season,
Denver has won 30 games
27 of the 30 by at least a touchdown
Minny’s One Man Gang
Adrian Peterson doing it again.
But consider Teddy Bridewater’s stat line this season:
at SF: 23/32 for 231 (0/1)
vs Det: 14/18 for 153 (1/0)
vs SD: 13/24 for 121 (0/1)
Coaches don’t seem to want Bridewater to throw … though you’d expect he’ll need to throw from behind at some point at Denver.
Viking have fourth worst net yardage differential in NFL (outgained by 205 yards over three games)
MORE
Not throwing the ball has helped here:
Vikings sacked only once last two games. Prior 13 games: 48 sacks.
Wade Phillips strong addition to Denver defensive coordinator
Denver as a favorite (with Manning): 31-18 ATS
Denver 32-44 ATS at home since 2006 (18-12 ATS in Manning era)
Last week at Detroit:
Manning: 31/42 for 324 yards (2/1)
Manning “credited the coaching staff with using a pistol formation, giving him the ball in a short shotgun with a running back behind him, after he was under center for some snaps during the first two games.”
Teams COMBINED for only 69 yards rushing.
(+6.5) St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals
Elite team with Palmer
Carson Palmer has won 9 straight starts (and 16 of 18)
Dominated last week:
First Downs: Arizona 28; SF 10
Yards: Arizona 446; SF 156
Time of Possession: Arizona 37 minutes; SF 23 minutes
Arizona’s first 2 TDs came on INT returns
Chris Johnson: 110 yards on 22 carries (plus 40 yards receiving)
Cardinals gained more yards returning Colin Kaepernick interceptions (71) than total yards 49ers receivers gained off receptions (67)
Arizona is 21-8 SU last 29 (no matter who the QB)
Losing only 8 times against the spread
Arizona has allowed a hundred yard rusher only FOUR TIMES in past 30 games
Arizona has had better W/L record than stats for years – luck or intangibles?
Arizona underrated HOME team
Cards at home last 10+ seasons (58-41 ATS)
Arizona blitzing D scheme especially benefits from crowd at home
Rams offense worse than many realize
Last Week: only 12 First Downs
Prior Week: only 11 First Downs
(league average for First Downs so far this year: 20.5 per game. NE averaging over 29 per game)
MORE
Jeff Fischer strong as underdog throughout his coaching career
winning 59% of the time against the Vegas number when getting points [96-67 ATS]
Rams defensive front is elite enough to be disruptive – which is necessary to be effective in today’s offensive friendly NFL.
SNF: (+5.5) Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints
QB Questions
Vegas consensus: Romo worth 6 points per game
Brandon Weeden has lost 10 straight starts SU and ATS (5-17 SU in career starts)
Lack of time to adapt to new personal makes the first few weeks the most challenging for the Dallas offense.
The team Dallas fields on Sunday may have the worst skill position players in the NFL.
Brees uncertain status
Market adjusted a touchdown for his absence last week.
Replacement Luke McCown in that game: 31/38 for 310 yards (0/1)
Saints QBs combined are now 2-of-11 with 2 interceptions when passing 20+ yards downfield this season
Successful Dallas Situation
Dallas 8-0 SU on road during 2014 regular season (every other team has lost at least 3 road games) (2007 Pats only other 8-0 SU regular season team since 1991)
1-0 on road in 2015
Dallas as dogs by more than a FG: 17-3 ATS
Saints at home
Saints at home: 1-7 ATS last 8
Prior 19 games: 18-0-1 ATS
Saints prime time home games: 11-1 SU and ATS
MORE
Narrative is that the Dallas D is much improved. Vegas is not impressed. Pro Bettor David Malinsky says the Cowboys D has “a chance to be average at best.”
The underdog in Dallas games has covered 70% of the time (59-25 ATS since 2010)
Road team in Saints games (coached by Sean Payton) has covered 10 of last 12. Prior 44 games: road team covered only 6 times.
Coach Payton off a loss: 22-11 ATS
Saints off a road loss: 22-6 ATS [from 9/24/2007]
Last Week
Dallas hosting Atl
Dallas led 21-7 with 3 minutes left in 2nd Quarter
Weeden: 22/26 for 232 yards (0/1)
Cole Beasley was the only Dallas WR to catch a pass.
Dallas had negative yards rushing in the 2nd half
Saints at Carl
Saints: Punt Return TD
Saints: 2-0 turnover edge
MNF: (+10) Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks
H/A
Seattle (starting in 2005): 69% ATS at home (60-27-2)
On road during same period: 41% ATS (36-51-1)
If simply play on at home, against on road: 111-63-3 ATS (64% winners)
Seattle when laying over TD at home: 7-10 ATS streak
Seattle when playing a SECOND straight home game: 20-5 Against The Spread
Last 15 times Lions a road dog, covered only TWICE
Detroit struggles on road [26-46-3 ATS since 2006]
Detroit’s underperformance
Detroit: Worst yardage differential in NFL (-272)
Detroit lost key contributors on D line in offseason. Replacements have not played well in first three weeks of the season.
MORE
Detroit (overall since 2011): 26-42-1 ATS
Seattle vs Non-Div foes: 31-16-1 ATS
Seattle thinner on defense than in recent years – which might not hurt for a single game, but a significant negative factor on the season
Seattle also lost key coaches this offseason.
Seattle: 35-17-1 ATS overall last 53 games
Last week: Seattle hosting Chi
Home crowd booed the Seahawks offense in the First Half
Russell Wilson sacked 4 times
Seattle led 6-0 at halftime
Seattle: KO return TD to start the 3rd Q
Settle kicked 4 FGs
Seattle’s Thomas Rawls rushed for 104 yards on 16 carries
(Marshawn Lynch limited by hamstring injury)
--
Here's the Pro Bettors roundtable I host with Steve Fezzik and David Malinsky - including best bets.