YTD: 19-11 -0.15 Units
4* Kansas City Chiefs +4 -110 (GOW) *LOSS*
Dalton has had a nice year so far.. But has not faced one defense that is even average. This KC team has allowed one 100 yard passer in the past year, is 12-7 ATS on the road the past 3 seasons, are battle tested, tough football team that is well coached in my opinion and DESPERATE for a win. I think we see our first vintage Dalton game of the year, where he has few costly turnovers. This Chiefs team gets Sean Smith back to match up with impressive CB Marcus Peters which is HUGE.. The team loves to play single high safety and press with the corners. The bengals defense has overachieved so far IMO, and is IMO one of the more Unathletic back sevens in the NFL, especially at lb. not a good combo against the athleticism of Kelce charles and Maclin.. Alex smith does just enough, taking advantage of Kelce and charles against these linebackers and safety's.
2* Baltimore Ravens -2.5 -120 *WINNER*
Short and sweet.. flacco has struggled due to a lack of a running game and weapons but has been lights out against Pittsburgh last few matchups.. Pittsburgh can't rush the passer and can't cover.. One of the few teams baltimore's WR can gain consistant separation against. Vick has been with this team for a month, and now Pittsburgh has a short week to get him ready to be the starter.. Steelers will want to pound it but Baltimore hasn't allowed a 100 yard rusher in 29 games.. You have to attack baltimore through the air and Vick just doesn't have the accuracy and is to turnover prone to do it IMO.
2* New York Jets PK -120 *WINNER*
This dolphins team just hasn't been good.. They got lucky to escape washington with a win, Lost to jacksonville and got blown out against Buffalo. The run defense has been a problem and they can't rush the passer despite there talent. I'm not a fan of DC Kevin Coyle or HC Joe Philbin.. If things go bad for this team early, it wouldn't be the first time they quit on there head coach. team lacks leadership.. What is Tannehills weakness? Throwing the deep ball.. The deep ball is how you can attack the Jets man to man zero coverage.. But I can't see there WR getting enough seperation against these corners.. Tannehill will have to be precise on the deep balls, something he hasn't shown in his career. The jets view this game as a business trip while a team in turmoil like miami might just be waiting to get the hell out of London. Great situation for the Jets to get a win here
2* Cowboys/Saints under 48 -115 *WINNER*
Dallas plays at the slowest pace in the NFL and wants to manage the game with Weeden. The teams top weapons for Weeden are slow possesion players in Beasley Witten and Escobar. I know they have terrence Williams who can go deep but can Weeden ger the ball to him? For the saints.. brees arm strength was effected by the injury, and the saints are trying to build there team like the cowboys.. Pounding the rock, and having an accurate older QB in favorable downs and distances, which leads to longer drives. I like both teams to have a Gameplan of possessing the ball.. Think this total is way off
2* Seattle Seahawks -9.5 -115
we all know how dominant seattle is on home primetime games.. Stafford is hurt, making bad decisions behind his porous offensive line. Banking on a costly turnover or two just like I did in the denver game.
1* Rams/cardinals over 42 -120 *WINNER*
Arizona has went over all 3 games this season and line hasn't been adjusted enough IMO.. this cardinals team throws a lot, gets turnovers, makes plays on special teams.. Rams are desperate and bet they have a few tricks up there sleeves.
1* Jacksonville Jags +4 -115 *WINNER*
Luck is being undervalued with this new line.. Hasselbecks arm looked shot this preseason.
1* Saints -3 -120 *WINNER*