You often hear "it's a Marathon not a Sprint" when betting during the Season. The idea is to not over bet early, and recognize you have months to get the best of it.
However, it's important to know when to sprint and when not to. I have always found NFL Week 1 to be one of the most beatable weeks, the problem is that it is beatable because no one else is paying attention to it IN JUNE (at least from a betting perspective).
So, we have a boatload of Vikings +175 and +4/+3.5/+3 in our possession. We have Mia -2.5, 476 Sea UNDER 43.5. You get the idea.........that's all well and good, but let's talk about making bets NOW, at the current lines.
Let's just talk about the Vikings/49ers. It's a late MNF game, so you are sure to see plenty with significant opinions on the game. Personally, I think Min -2.5 looks about right. At that price, how can we support the Vikings? After all, we had all summer to take them as the dog +120, now we want them -140? The other option is not attractive either....do we really want a 49ers team with all their problems at less than +3?
That game sums up the current NFL week1 board. A lot of games, with a lot of VERY accurate lines RIGHT NOW. I am sure to fire on some additional plays, fading a little steam, and playing a few quarters, but it is VERY important to know WHY you should be walking not sprinting in Week1.........these lines have now been picked over for three months, and as such represent arguably the sharpest lines you will see for ANY NFL week. All the work in the world isn't going to land you on a winner, if the line is correct..........and I firmly believe most of them are right now.....
I have kept my NFL Week 1 report up, but frankly I won't hype it. It contrains a bunch of great bets, and ALL the numbers are long since gone.......NEXT year get the report early and hop on the Vikings +3 bets..........this year, get ready to fire in some Qtrs/props/ and maybe a steam fade LATE here week1.
http://bit.ly/1dO56ZY
Stay tuned, NFL Power Ratings come out TOMORROW.