Excellent. Glad the pre-gamer community came through. Thanks, Grinch. Now we can start a good win totals dialogue.
I'll also contribute: www.seasonwintotal.com/win-total-impact-of-tom-brady-s-suspension.html
There's updated totals for William Hill, Southpoint, and two A+ offshore sites on that link.
Let's start the win total discussion with Indianapolis. Clearly the over is a very strong public play, and is getting heavily bet up. With that said, most books are heavily clinging to the 10.5 number with the over heavily juiced (-170 or -180 in most places).
The books could easily move that number up to 11 (with a straight -110 juice on the over and -110 on the under) and STILL get far more wagers on the over. Not many squares will have the stomach to lay a significant under against a QB like Luck and a schedule as soft as Indy's even at 11. At 11, books would still be receiving far more wagers on the OVER.
So why don't the books move Indy's number up to 11? As far as I know, ONLY the Golden Nugget has posted an 11 total for Indy, and they are limiting wagers to $500.
If the goal of books is to even out the wagers and simply collect on the juice, then moving Indy up to 11 is a no-brainer. By leaving this number at 10.5 (with over heavily juice at -170), it looks like nearly all the books are taking a strong position on the under.
Maybe there are a few sharps on the under at +150, but I would venture that the VAST majority of Indy win total money is public money and firmly on the OVER wager (at -170).
Any thoughts?