I'm 'ALL IN' for DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports)... Who's with me?
Let’s say that you are new to this recent explosion in this country that is DFS. Maybe you’ve just recently created an account at DRAFTKINGS. Perhaps you need a little advice as to how to launch your daily fantasy career. That’s where we enter the picture. This Strategy for Success article should help you get off on the right foot. DraftKings has some of the largest cash prizes of any DFS website. And the best past is: It’s ALL legal! In this country, daily fantasy is considered a skilled sport. And for that reason, you can use any US-based credit card to fund your account. If you want to have some success in your DraftKings NFL wagering, it’s important that you utilize strategies that are specific to the website. So before we can get into those strategies, we must first look at DraftKings starting lineup requirements and scoring.
Your starting lineup in any NFL contest consists of one QB, two RB’s, three WR’s, one TE, one ‘FLEX’ (any RB / WR / TE), and one DST (defense / special teams). That’s a 9-man starting lineup. You accumulate points in the following way for each position.
QB: passing TD = 4 pts, 1 pt for every 25 passing yards, 3 pts for a 300+ yard passing game, -1 pt for every interception.
RB, WR, and TE: rushing or receiving TD = 6 pts, 1 pt for every 10 rushing yards, 1 pt for every 10 receiving yards, 3 pts for a 100+ rushing game, 3 pts for a 100+ receiving game, punt/kickoff return for a TD = 6 pts, 2-point conversion = 2 pts, fumble lost = -1 pt.
Defense / Special Teams: sack = 1 pt, interception = 2 pts, fumble recovery = 2 pts, kickoff return, punt return, int return, or fumble recovery for a TD = 6 pts, safety = 2 pts, blocked kick = 2 pts, 0 points allowed = 10 pts, 1-6 points allowed = 7 pts, 7-13 points allowed = 4 pts, 14-20 points allowed 1 pt, 21-27 points allowed = 0 pt, 28-34 points allowed -1 pt, and 35 > points allowed = -4 pts.
There are basically two type of football contests that you can play at DraftKings. The first are the ’50/50’ or head to head contests… in which you are trying to finish in the top 50% of a pool or are taking on just one opponent. The second is a ‘GPP’ contest. The term GPP stands for a Guaranteed Prize Pool. In the world of daily fantasy, this slang refers to a top-heavy MULTI PERSON contest in which only a small amount (5% to 25%) of the finishers get paid. For our strategy article, we will focus on the ‘GPP’ Tournaments. I play these a lot more than the 50/50 Tourneys. Yes, you get paid out a lot less in frequency. But when you finish in the money in these GPP contests, you win a lot MORE.
So with the rules explained, let’s get into our optimum GPP Strategy for Success. And that strategy begins and ends with the WIDE RECEIVERS. Remember our 9-man starting lineup? That lineup starts with only 2 RB’s… but 3 WR’s. So right off the bat, we’re already playing more wide receivers. Quite simply, wide receivers are more valuable than running backs not just because they can score more points… but also because they cost LESS money. Besides, these days the NFL is a PASSING league. The ‘grind it out’ philosophy of winning games at the running back position is a thing of the past. Another aspect that comes into play is the FLEX position. You’d be smart to ALSO use a WR in this spot, as well. Now all of a sudden, we are talking about the fact that 44% of your entire starting lineup comes from WR’s! It’s the novice players who use a RB in the FLEX position. In most cases, a WR (or even a TE) actually makes for the best FLEX plays on DraftKings because they score the most points relative to their (cheaper) salaries. And in a large GPP Tournament with a lot of players, you need a lot of upside (risk-taking).
Regardless of the specific league types that you prefer to play at DraftKings, you HAVE to tailor your lineup to match. Head-to-head or ’50/50’ leagues require a lineup that’s disciplined and consistent. While GPP’s require a lot more risk-taking. One way to increase your upside in these GPP Tourneys is to ‘STACK’ teammates together. That’s playing multiple offensive players from the same team. Yes, this strategy can be a bit unnerving. You are essentially increasing your risk, but at the same time you are increasing your potential reward. If you take a QB/WR combo from the same team and your QB throws a TD to that WR… you will get DOUBLE fantasy points. Many new players seem to shy away from this strategy because they don’t want to have too many players tied up in the same game… WRONG! This is the new age NFL. There is definite value in utilizing this strategy in the many ‘pass happy’ offenses throughout the league. Sharp DFS players in GPP’s should also consider not just one… but actually TWO receivers from the same team to go with their starting QB. That’s a 3-man STACK. If you can find that perfect combo of a QB that has a monster game, and take his TWO biggest producing receivers in that game, you will be sitting pretty in GPP’s. Obviously, this is a risky strategy. But that’s what you want when creating a GPP lineup. High upside to separate yourself from the hundreds or thousands of other players that you are competing with.
Our final look at optimum strategy for GPP Tournaments has to do with CONTRARIAN thinking. Winning (or finishing high) in a GPP often comes down to finding that Diamond in the Rough. A player who might not be heavily owned. When I look back at the results from previous GPP winners, I will often ask myself ‘That under-the-radar play made so much sense, why didn’t I think of it?’. The mindset behind it isn’t that complicated. But at times you’ll have to force yourself into making lineup choices that may take you out of your preferred comfort zone. It is the nature of this extra risk that could potentially separate you from finishing 1st or 2nd in a GPP… or out of the money entirely. It is very easy to make a lineup choice based solely on what happened the pervious week. From a handicapping perspective, I’ve seen it from many bettors who wager on a Side Play or an Over / Under. They automatically ’knee-jerk’ their bet based on the most recent game. They play the role of the follower… instead of the leader. And more often then not, these bettors with short memory lose more often than they win. The same holds true in your GPP Lineup. If DeMarco Murray had a killer game the week before, then his salary will be higher this week… and he will be much higher-owned this week. A good contrarian will go the opposite way. Knowing that Murray will be owned by a high percentage of players this week is reason enough to stay away from him. Try to find the value in another stud RB who may have had a crappy game the previous week. He’ll be much less owned. And he could be the key that finishes in the money for you.
Your three best DraftKings strategic take-aways from this article? (1) GPP success is all about WIDE RECEIVERS… (2) STACKING multiple players from the same team is a great GPP strategy… and (3) Always try to think outside the box (CONTRARIAN)!