I've been involved in sports betting at a major level since the early 1990s and I am amazed how much the approach to beating the spread has changed over time.
College football was my choice over the NFL for years. If I was asked for my top 10 plays on a football weekend in 1998, for example, I would have provided eight CFB sides/totals and maybe two from the NFL. The advent of spread-option and zone reads in college football changed most bettors' approach, including mine. We're 14-6 winning seasons since I began providing CFB plays 20 years ago. So, while I enjoyed watching the college game more in the 1990s, we have been able to make the change. Certain positions on the field mean much less to me than they did years ago. Personnel may win football games SU, but it's not as important to the spread as it once was for me.
KEY HANDICAPPING TIP (CFB): Something that still works for me just as much as it did when it was introduced to me in 1995 is the art of making your CFB lines a week in advance. For example -- I'll make my CFB lines for the weekend of Saturday, Oct. 3, before the previous week's games begin, with numbers in-hand by Thurs, Sept 24. This is been instrumental for me because it keeps you from overreacting to one week of action. You don't let yourself get caught up in the hype of anomalies and it teaches you that SportsCenter highlights are fun to watch -- but mean next to nothing when it comes to beating the spread.
The NFL has become a huge producer of betting income for me over the last half-dozen years or so. I have always capped and bet the NFL, but it has become one of my most lucrative sports, surpassing CFB. Just here at Pregame we have current NFL runs of 79-50, 60% and 96-63, 61%. My top plays, 3* Smackdowns are 24-6, 80% since I brought them to Pregame. Last season, I was part of a 2-man team that finished 16th in the Westgate Super Contest out of 1,403 entries. We cashed nearly 65% of our plays.
KEY HANDICAPPING TIP (NFL): I keep ridiculously meticulous notes each and every Sunday, while watching a bank of TVs. I have also incorporated NFL rewind into my handicapping "must dos" each week. It is a valuable tool. I was once a matchup capper in my early days of NFL betting. I am now about situations and like college, sticking with my advanced lines more than anything else, by a longshot.
Like Steve F., I have a small group of trustworthy bettors who I speak with a couple times per week. We all do our own capping and come from different approaches -- then bring our notes and thoughts together early in the week and begin firing away. As mentioned above -- my NFL has been spot-on for several years, now...and we expect hard work, contacts, and making our own advanced lines to help us turn another profit in 2015.
Best of Luck in 2015 and beyond!
Scott.