The AFC South looks like it is the weakest division in football, but it also may be the division that hold the AFC's representative in Super Bowl 50. The Indianapolis Colts are that team and will win this division rather easily. Houston may hang around for a bit, but they just don't have nearly enough to take the division from the Colts. The Jags are improved, but still very weak, while Tennessee may be the worst team in football. Teams are in order of Projected finish.
Some info gathered from Pro Football Weekly & Athlon Sports
The Indianapolis Colts had their 3rd 11-5 season in a row last year, but they were blasted by the Patriots in the playoffs, in what is now known as Deflategate. This year Vegas has the Colts Win total set at 10.5 (O -185). Vegas Odds have the Colts listed at -400 to win their division, +280 to win the AFC Title and +75 to win Suberbowl 50.
Last year the Colts ranked 6th in the league in scoring, at 28.6 ppg, while also ranking 3rd in total yards (406.6 ypg), 1st in passing (305.9 ypg) and 22nd in rushing (100.8 ypg). The Colts had one of the best offenses in the league last year and they should have another strong year this time around. The offense is led by Andrew Luck, who just may be the best QB in the league right now, after guiding the Colts to the number 1 pass offense a year ago. Reggie Wayne is gone from the offense, but the Colts did grab Andre Johnson from Houston and he is a big play threat every time the ball is thrown his way. They also added speedy WR Phillip Dorsett in the draft nand still have TY Hilton as well. Plenty of weapons again for luck to throw to. The running game has been a sore spot for this team over the year, but they feel they have fixed that with the addition of Frank Gore from San Francisco. The OL has allowed 100 sacks the last 3 year and while they will be improved with the addition of Todd Herrmans, it will still be the weakest unit on the offense.
Defensively, the Colts ranked 19th in points allowed (23.1 ppg), 11th in yards allowed (342.7 ypg), 12th vs the pass (229.3 ypg) and 18th vs the run (113.4 ypg). The defense has not been great for this team the last couple of year, but I look for improvements from them this year. The Colts were busy in the offseason on this side of the ball as they added LB Trent Cole and Safety Dwight Lowery and then used 4 of their first 5 picks on defense in the draft. The DL was improved last year as they finally didn't finish near the bottom in run defense. They finished 18th and should be better this time around, while the LB corps will be solid again, but will also have to play without Robert Mathis for at least the first half of the year as he is recovering from an Achilles injury. Trent Cole should step in and help right away. The Pass defense was solid for this team last year and will be even better this year as they have added Dwight Lowery, to go along with one of the best corners in the league in Vontae Davis and Mike Adams, who is coming off his best year as a pro. The Colt defense is agining a bit and depth is a slight issue, but overall i do expect them to slightly improve over last years numbers.
The Colts are clearly the best team in the AFC South and just may be the best team in the whole AFC. They have the top passing offense in the league, which may be a but better this year, while their running game is vastly improved with the addition o gore. The do need more consistent play up front as they have allowed 100 sacks in the last years and the more Luck keeps taking those hits the more likely he is to get injured and that would be very bad for this team. The defense is improved, but if they sustain many injuries then they could be in some trouble as they don't have a ton of depth on that side of the ball. Their win total is sitting at 10.5, with heavy juice to the overall and I do expect them to post another 11 win season. They play in a very weak AFC North, plus they get tough games vs New Orleans and New England at home and have plenty of winnable road games on their last as well. They do have road dates vs Denver and Pittsburgh, but the rest of the schedule us very manageable and at the end of the year we should see this team with at least 11 wins and playing in the AFC Title game. I also feel they get over the hump and make it to the Super Bowl.
The Houston Texans suffered through a miserable 2013 as they lost their last 14 games of the year, but they did bounce back last year as expected, by going 9-7. Now Vegas is looking for them to have a slightly above average year as their win total has been set at 8.5 (O -130). Vegas Odds have Houston listed at +380 to win the AFC South, +2000 to win the AFC Championship and +5000 to win the Superbowl.
Last year the Texans ranked 14th in the league in scoring, at 23.2 ppg, while also ranking 17th in total yards (344.6 ypg), 24th in passing (209.5 ypg) and 5th in rushing (131.5 ypg). Offensively the Texans were improved as they rose from 31st in scoring in 2013 to 14th last year. This year I see them being solid once again, especially with the addition of Brian Hoyer at QB. Hoyer was able to win games at Cleveland with no skill players at all and he has a few of them here, including RB Arian Foster and WR Deandre Hopkins, but he does need to cut down on the INTs. It will actually be a battle between him and Ryan Mallet, but who ever gets the job will have the luxury of handing the ball off to Arian Foster, who is one of the best backs in the league. The WR corps did lose Andre Johnson, but they will still be a solid group with the additions of Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington. The offensive line will be very solid one again and should protect whoever is at QB, plus open plenty of holes for Foster, This will not be a spectacular offense, but they will be solid and should slightly improve on last years numbers.
Defensively, the Texans ranked 7th in points allowed (19.2 ppg), 16th in yards allowed (348.2 ypg), 21st vs the pass (243.1 ypg) and 10th vs the run (105.1 ypg).The defense for the Texans was very good last year and should be very good once again. This is a scary defense that led the league in Takeaways with 34 a year ago and is anchored by the best defensive player in the league in JJ Watt. The Texans will also get back Jadaveon Clowney, who missed some time last year, plus they have added Vince Wolfork, who is one of the best run stoppers in the league. This is truly a scary front 7 for the Texans. The Defensive backfield was the weak point of this defense last year and will be so again, but it has been upgraded with the addition of DJ Swearinger and Rahim Moore, to go along with Kareem Jackson and Jonathan Joseph. This is clearly one of the best defenses in the league.
The Texans improved by 7 wins over 2013 and they should flirt with a payoff berth this time around. The Offense should show improvement, but they need foster to stay healthy for the whole year and they need at least decent play from the QB spot. They have a solid corps of WR's, they just have to get them the ball. The offense will not have to be spectacular this year to win games as the defense is very stout and should finish in the top 5 in the league. they may end up playing in a bunch of low scoring games this year as I just don't see them averaging a bunch and their opponents will find it hard to score on them. The schedule is not all that tough for them, especially with 4 games vs Tennessee and Jacksonville on their slate. They also have Tampa Bay New Orleans, Kansas City, Indy, the Jets and the Pats at home, plus winnable road games vs Carolina and Buffalo. I say they will top their 8.5 win total with 10 win this year and a berth in the playoffs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars come in off another poor year, in which they went just 3-13 on the year and I'm not sure the prospects of them turning things around this year look all that good. This year Vegas has the Jaguars win total set at 5.5 (O -140). Vegas Odds have the Jags listed as +2000 to win the AFC South, +7500 to win the AFC Title and +15000 to win the Superbowl.
Last year the Jags were last in the league in scoring, at 15.6 ppg, while also ranking 31st in total yards (289.6 ypg), 31st in passing (187.6 ypg) and 21st in rushing (102.1 ypg). The Jags have been pathetic on offense the last few years and while they are improved this year, it won't be by a whole lot. Blake Bortles has a shot at being a star in this league, but he has little in the way of a supporting cast. The Jags did puck up TE Julius Thomas and drafted TJ Yeldon in the offseason, but still they need much more than that. Yeldon has the tools to be a solid RB in this league, as most RBs from Alabama do, but still he is operating behind a rather weak OL, so I would not look for him to have a spectacular rookie season and should he get hurt the Jags don't have a lot of depth behind him. The WR corps is talented, but also very young and they will go through some growing pains this year. The Jags will be improved on offense, especially in the 2nd half of the year, but still they are a ways away from averaging 20 ppg.
Defensively, the Jags ranked 26th in points allowed (25.8 ppg), 26th in yards allowed (370.8 ypg), 22nd vs the pass (243.7 ypg) and 27th vs the run (127.1 ypg). The defense was very poor for the Jags last year and I'm not sure they will be better this year. They lost their best run stopper in Red Bryant and just don't have a real star at any level of this defense. The DL may be the worst unit of the bunch and will struggle vs the run and to get pressure on the QB. The LB Corps is below average as well with their leader being Telvin Smith, who is really on an average played compared to the rest of the league. The secondary struggled last year and was very young, but this year they are the best unit on this defense. They have talent and have been upgraded with the drafting of James Sample and the addition of Davon House through free agency. The defense has some talent in the secondary, but the fron 7 is very weak and they also don't have a lot of depth. They may allow 25+ ppg again this year.
Gus Bradley is on the hot seat as he has a 7-25 record in his two season as the Jags head coach and achieving atv least a .500 record seems to be a few years away. It won't happen this year, that's for sure. The Offense will be improved, but still they just can't score enough points to hang in the new NFL that has seeing a scoring increase. They also won't be able to score enough to points to overcome that bad defense that they will put on the field week after week. The Jags are just a bad team this year and they may be look to get out of Jacksonville, so i'm not sure this team will play hard each an every week. I do not expect them to to the 5.5 game win total that has been posted for them.
The Tennessee Titans had a miserable 2014, in which they went just 2-14 and this year looks to be another long one for this team. Vegas has the Titans win total set at 5.5 (O -110). Betting Odds have the Titans listed as +2500 to win the AFC South, +7500 to win the AFC Title and +20000 to win Superbowl 50.
Last year the Titans were 30th in the league in scoring, at 15.9 ppg, while also ranking 29th in total yards (303.7 ypg), 22nd in passing (213.2 ypg) and 26th in rushing (90.4 ypg). The offense for this team was very bad last year and the Titans are hoping that teh right arm of Marcus Mariota will help them turn it around. Mariota threw 105 TDs and had just 14 INTs in 3 years at Oregon and many feel that he has the tools to succeed at this level. The WR Corps also needed an upgrade and the titans did just that as they got Hakeem Nicks and Harry Douglas in free agency, while taking Dorial Green-Beckam in then second round of the draft. This now has the makings of a fine WR corps. The running game is led by Bishop Sankey, but he really did have a mediocre first year and if not careful the rookie David Cobb just may take over. He has the tools to be a solid power back in the NFL. The offense has nice skill players, but still the OL is a sore spot and just may keep them from progressing too much this year.
Defensively, the Titans ranked 29th in points allowed (27.4 ppg), 27th in yards allowed (373.0 ypg), 15th vs the pass (235.8 ypg) and 31st vs the run (137.2 ypg). The Titans were a bad defensive squad last year, but they may have found a few pieces that should help them improve on this side of the ball. LB's Brian Orakpo and Jonathan Massaquoi, plus CB Parrish Cox were all picked up in the offseason through free agency and they should help this team right away. Jurrel Casey (16 sacks L2Y) is the leader of a rather weak DL that was crushed on the ground last year and not much has really been done to upgrade this unit. The LB Corps looks to be solid rhis year with their additions, while and average secondary last year should be a bit better this year. Still the Titans will struggle on this side of the ball as they just don't have a big pass rush and will still struggle to stop the run.
The Titans started 2014 with a 3-1 record, but since then they have won just 6 of their last 30 games. They should be a bit better on offense this year, but Mariota will still go through some growing pains and the running game is not an above average unit, plus that OL is not very good. The defense will be better for this team, but they have all lot of ground to make up after last year's dismal performance. The DL is what will keep them from progressing too much. This team was just 2-14 last year and on Paper they are a better team than that this year, but they still have too many young players at key positions to feel that they will turn this ship around this year. They are headed in the right direction, but still I see no more than 4 wins, which means they will not top their win total of 5.5 that Vegas has set forth.