One of the toughest jobs a handicapper/bettor has is balancing power rating lines with trends. Let's look at NFL week 1 as an example:
One of the more solid trends out there is (According to Marc Lawrence's Playbook) "Play against any NFL road team in week1 who won 13 or more last year vs. a team who won less than 13"
This one makes complete sense. However, the reason it makes sense is that the overconfident road team gets bid up so that AT POST the value is on the dog. The trend is a 37-21-1 winner, HOWEVER this is since 1980. I assure all, back in the 1980s, Seattle would be laying 5.5 not 3.2 week 1 @St Louis!
464 CHICAGO hosting gb qualifies. However, when another handicapper on the radio suggested the Bears HAVE value +5 last month, I almost started screaming. The Bears MAY have value when it hits 7. However the power ratings make the game 6.5. And my experience is to win in betting you better got at least a "fair" number based on the power ratings, and not get cheated on what you get vs. a pure power rating number.
476 St Lous +3.2 qualifies hosting Sea. Same story. Sea -3 is damn cheap on a power rating basis........if you want the Rams let the public bet it up 1st, then play the trend with a number that corresponds to the power rating number which is more like 4 or 4.5.
470 Buffalo +2 qualifies vs. Indy. Same story. Great trend on the Bills, but Indy is the MUCH better team. Power ratings make this one just shy of 3, you better get +3-120 or you simply cannot bet it.
The truth is that many pros ALREADY have GB -4 and -4.5 in their pockets, and will fire back Bears +7. I like both bets frankly.
On the capping front, we FIRE on a MONDAY DOUBLE DOUBLE MLB a great situation in one isolated game to hit the side and total!
Good luck to all today!
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