Tom Brady may or may not be suspended for week1 . Brady is worth a bunch of points to the Patriots. Likely it is seven points during the regular season, but you could argue that if the Pats have four months to prepare for week1 without him, that a 5.5 points adjustment is "about right".
NE was -6 to -6.5 hosting Pit week1. If Brady is out, that line will close NE -1 or close to it.
Most books have pulled the bet down, however CGT has kept it up. The line had moved to NE -3, which implied it was a little more likely Brady would be suspended. Interestingly, this morning the line went up to NE-4 (someone may have gotten access to a stale +6 and bet -3 to lock in a middle). Absent that, this is one of the stranger line moves I've ever seen. A high ranking NFL official with another NFL team said his "guess" is that Brady will be suspended "for a few games" and most seem to believe he likely will be out week1 (if for no other reason, failure to cooperate fully with an investigation, even if it cannot be proven he knowingly called for depressurization where the Balls would "blow" a PSI below the legal 12.5 limit).
The problem I have is that I liked the Pats week1 -6. So, I BETTER be right about Brady not being there if I am going to bet Pit +4. Having said that, with the Pats long record of Belichickanery and such, you HAVE to feel the NFL cannot allow Brady to simply have a fine.
So I am betting 461 Pit +4. And if Brady plays, I will throw back NE -6, in what won't be my last donk middle bet I will make during the year......
On the capping front, my NBA GAME OF THE WEEK tips tonight, as I put my lifetime Pregame 40-22 3* record ON THE LINE.
http://bit.ly/1eHCIad