PATROITS-SEAHAWKS UNDER 10 1ST QUARTER
5 New England Super Bowls during Brady/Belichick era:
Pats have scored ZERO points in the first quarter
Opponents have scored only 15 points
Average 1Q score: 3-0
*Thanks to RJ for the stats above and the impetus for my selection*
“The will of the pursuit always defeats the will to defend”
You will know how this game is going to play from the firsts 2 series that the Patriots have the ball. As you know by now all of my plays are bases on a psychological approach and this game plays right into the framework. If the Pats score early it’s over, if not be prepared for a war.
The Patriots are a chameleon that will change its colors when danger is near, whereas the Seahawks are a wall that looks and acts the same in the midst of peace or volatility. This is who these teams are and the basis for what got them to this game and what in the end makes them great.
What you will see from the Hawks early on is a conservative offense that will not give the game away. They will shadow box and move around the ring just pacing themselves as to wait for the opponent to show their hand, make that fatal mistake, and pounce like a cobra. This philosophy has saved a very limited offense that (with the exception of RB Lynch) has virtually no explosive playmakers and is made to look much better than they actually are due to the superior talent and playmaking ability of their defense. This defense which if they don’t score themselves puts Seattle in great scoring position against a usually frustrated and tiring opponent that ends up surrendering at the end. The issue is when defending the Hawks one can’t be lulled to sleep as when they need to they will abandon the conservative run option and go 3 wide and air it out. It’s a shock to the defense and they are caught off guard by the dramatic change in attack and in most cases once they collect themselves it’s too late. Unlike the Packers before them I think the Pats will be ready for this inevitable change.
The Patriots on the other hand will change in a seconds notice if things are not what they initially planned. If the run is not there they throw, if the pass is not available they pound it down your throat. Even defensively they will adjust as to stop what is working (and a very underrated and overlooked part of this game).
The Hawk defense is no secret. They play deep 3 zone with man on the outside. They don’t change even when faced with losing (last week). Their innate confidence it what works trumps what is sensible in the moment as they feel that no matter the circumstance they will somehow someway prevail (last week).
Brady and the Pats will force the action early to see if what they schemed will work. If it does this game is over since the Hawks defensively won’t adjust. If it doesn’t they will continue to tinker with each aspect of the game as to find the right elixir to “crack the code” all the while the Hawks will sit back, play conservative offensive, and wait for the Pats to tire, get frustrated, and make that fatal error like all have done before and then strike like the cobra they are. This could happen!
So in the end do the Pats have the trick that snaps the will and resolve of a very mentally tough Hawk team? Personally I say yes. I don’t like teams that are in a title defense mode and that are very banged up (defensive injuries which will show as the game progresses are a major concern for me) vs. a team that has been in this position before, knows what it takes to climb the ultimate hill to victory and will not succumb to the pressure in the end (i.e. Green Bay). (See other plays).
Is been a great year and thanks to all the support and insight from all the followers. It was another profitable year and look to do it again next year. Enjoy the game! (I will write a season recap/look ahead thread Monday).
OTHER PLAYS:
Full disclosure, I took the Patriots +3 when the line was 1st released so for the sake of this thread I will not count this as part of my season play since the line has moved 3-4 points. I don’t thinks is fair to count this on my season record win or lose.
SEASON RECORD: 33-24-4
GOOD FORTUNE TO ALL-PHD