How important is it to beat the no-vig closing line at sharp books? I keep hearing people say that the market is being distorted by big money that isn't sharp. I know certain games like the Superbowl are heavily influenced by the public, but most games odds makers are not going to get enough public money to move a line.
My take is beating the no-vig line before post is the single most important thing for a bettor, due to the fact major sport sides and totals are generally efficient markets. To me it seems average bettors should just pick off rogue numbers instead of wasting time handicapping.
Most books seem to profile players and estimate edge by how much they beat a no vig closing line. Maybe pregame pros could start putting down what number they got vs the closing line instead of simply win loss records? Someone with 60% win record over 50 plays does not mean much to me, but someone who beats the no vig closer over 60% of the time is going to win long term.
Just wanted to hear others opinions on the subject?