After a big run I have struggled of late in the NFL. I look to get some of it back today. BOL Everyone.
TOP PLAYS
3 UNIT PLAYS
Houston/ Jacksonville Under 40.5: Very hard to see many points being generated in this game. The Jaguars have the worst offense in the league as they come in averaging just 15.5 ppg overall, including just 13.3 ppg on the road. How will this team score much vs a Houston defense that has allowed just 19.3 ppg on the year overall and just 14.3 ppg in their last 3 games. This is a defense that comes in hot and will be looking to totally shut down this weak Jaguars attack. On offense, Houston has not been that strong and they do come in averaging just 20.7 ppg in their last 3 games, while the Jaguar's defense has improved of late, holding their last 3 opponents to just 20.4 ppg. The Under is 18-7 in the Jaguars last 25 games vs the AFC South, while the Under is 21-8-1 in Houston's last 30 game in December. Both trends should continue here.
Baltimore/ Cleveland Under 39: How will the Browns score at all in this game as they are down to Connor Shaw at QB and they have no Josh Gordon and no running game either. This offense will not get many points off of a Baltimore defense that has allowed just 14.1 ppg at home for the year. On defense the Browns have not been terrible as they come in allowing just 21.1 ppg overall for the year, including just 21.7 ppg on the road. The Ravens have scored 26.1 ppg at home, but still this is a very conservative offensive team and while they do need to win this one badly they also know that they won't have to do a whole lot on offense to win the game. Their defense should be enough to win this game. 21-7 sounds about right for this one.
GREEN BAY -7 over Detroit: The Lions shut down Green Bay in Detroit earlier in the year, but now the scene shifts to Lambeau Field where the Packers just don't get shut down. The Packers are a perfect 7-0 at home and have outscored their opponents by a whopping 20.7 ppg on this field this year. The Lions are a hot team right now and while they are 4-3 on the road, allowing just 17.7 ppg in those games, they have also still only averaged 13.3 ppg away from, while the Packers have put up 41.1 ppg on their home field. That's a 4 TD discrepancy. This game is for all the marbles in the NFC North and a first round bye in the playoffs and that should mean an even more focused Packers team on their home field. While the Lions do have a defensive edge they will not come up with nearly enough points to keep this one close. Green Bay wins by double digits here.
6 Point Teaser: San Diego +7 & Green Bay -1.5
6 Point Teaser: Pittsburgh/ Cincy Under 54 & Cincinnati +9.5 (Added)
BEST OF THE REST
Dallas/ Washington Under 49: I expect the Cowboys not to take may chances here as they already have the NFC East Wrapped up. The Cowboys could get a first round by with a win, but need allot of help to get it. The Cowboys have played grind it out football all year long and no reason why they should change in this one. Their run game just eats clock and keeps the opposing offense on the sidelines and shortening the game is just what the Cowboys are hoping to do in this one. The Skins offense has not been good this year, averaging just 18.9 ppg overall and just 17.9 ppg at home. Very tough expecting the Cowboys to go all out on offense and their conservative game plan should keep the scoring down for the most part in this one.
New Orleans -4 Over TAMPA BAY: Im gonna go with a Saints team that has played better on the road than at home this year. The Saints are 3-4 on the road, while the Bucs have gone a miserable 0-7 on their home field for the year, getting outscored by 10.5 ppg in the process. Neither team has anything to play for, but the Bucs do have a shot at the number 1 pick with a loss here. Could they really tank it here? Not sure but no matter what the Saints have the much better talent in this game and they will look to end the season on a high note with a rout vs team that just may not put up much of a fight in this one. The Bucs have averaged just 13.4 pg at home, while the Saints have put up 27.4 ppg on the road. Saints by DD in this one.
San Francisco/ Arizona Under 37: The Arizona offense has been hampered by injuries at the QB spot all year and it has really hurt them offensively down the stretch as they come into this game averaging just 11.7 ppg in their last 6 games. Now they face a tough Niners defense that has allowed just 275 ypg and 21.3 ppg at home this year. They did allow San Diego 38 points last week, but this is an Arizona offense that hasn't scored more than 17 points in any of their last 6 games. The Cards have continued to win this year, despite their offensive woes and that is because they have a top not defense that is 5th in yards allowed, while allowing just 21.5 ppg for the year. Offensively the Niners are not that strong, especially at home where they have averaged just 19 ppg and if you take out the 35 they scored at home last week vs San Diego, they they have just averaged 16.3 ppg in their other 6 home games. This is my kind of game, as I full expect a defensive battle. (Push)
Indianapolis -7 over TENNESSEE
10 Point Teaser: Seattle -2 & Houston PK & Bengals +13.5
10 Point Teaser: Miami/ Jets Under 51 & San Diego/ Kansas City Under 51 & Green Bay/ Detroit Under 57
San Diego/ Kansas City Under 41
Oakland/ Denver Under 48.5
10 Point Teaser: Atlanta +7 & Seattle/ St Louis Under 51.5 & Detroit/ Green Bay Under 56.5
Bengals/ Steelers Under 48: (Added) This game will not be the high scoring one as it was in the first meeting this year as both teams have really geared up to run the ball of late and both teams have played solid defense of late, as the Bengals have allowed 13 or less in 4 of their last 6 games, while Pittsburgh has allowed just 17.7 ppg in their last 3 games. Pittsburgh home games have been rather high scoring this year, but Bengal road games have averaged just 36.4 ppg. This is a huge game for both teams and tyhat usually means a low scoring conservative game. Lots of running and defense in this one.
NFL 2014
Top Plays Overall 54-55-2 (-17.4 Units)... 4 Unit 2-3-0 (5.2 Units)
Top Play Totals 30-29-2 (-1.7 Units)... Power Angle Plays 1-2-0 (-3.6 Units)... Top Play Teasers 16-19-0 (-22.9 Units)
Best Of The Rest Plays Overall 71-74-1 (-20.8 Units)
Best Of The Rest Totals 32-35-1 (-10.2 Units)... Best Of The Rest Teasers 19-15-0 (+4.0 Units)