2014 NFL Record
55 – 49 @ +1.1 Units
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#1: UNDER 40.5 SD/SF
Take away San Francisco’s 27 point explosion against New Orleans’ 30th ranked D, and they’re averaging a crisp 11.0 PPG in their last 6 games, never exceeded 17 points in the process. San Diego, on the other hand, has averaged 16.5 PPG in their last 8 games, and that includes a 34 point outburst in Baltimore, where they scored 3 TD”s and 21 points in the 4th quarter, during a furious comeback. Clearly you can see that neither of these offenses are ‘setting the world on fire’ right now. Chargers will be without Matthews and Allen, their best RB and their best WR. San Fran will be without Hyde, their younger and more explosive RB. San Fran’s D is without Borland and McDonald, two of their better defenders this year, but I think the loss of San Diego’s key offensive players offsets that. Besides, this San Fran D has been terrific since their BYE week and in the last 7 weeks is averaging a defensive DVOA of -20%. That would rank #1 in the league if it was over a full season (BUF is #1 @ -16.6% FY). We should expect a drop-off going forward (Borland and McDonald have been THAT good), but I think they should be fine today. Remember, besides Allen and Matthews sitting, this San Diego O-line is one of the worst in the league. Sure they rank 12 in ASR allowed, but a lot of that is due to Rivers getting rid of the ball quickly. If you watch their games, you’ll notice that San Diego throws a ton in the short-range and very rarely takes any deep shots. That’s due to their O-line woes and constant pressure on Rivers. In the run-game, San Diego’s O-line is the worst, ranking 32 in ALY (Adjusted Line Yards) gained @ 3.1. I think San Fran’s 2nd ranked D should do well here.
But the real play here is not due to San Fran’s defense being good, as everyone already knows this. The real reason for this play is that San Diego’s D has been performing at an elite level lately as well. Since San Diego’s BYE week (5 games), Chargers’ D has averaged a defensive DVOA of -13.6%, which would tie it with Denver’s 3rd ranked D if we were looking at full-year numbers. Now that’s impressive. They had one bad game, @ Baltimore, but did a great job against NE and DEN in the last two weeks holding those explosive offenses to 23 and 22 points respectively. San Fran’s offense is nowhere close to those two teams, as they rank 21st in the league.
And finally, I want to point out that we have two teams here that are very methodical and love to take their time when running plays. San Diego ranks 28th in Seconds per Play, while San Francisco is 31st. These are two of the ‘slowest’ teams in the league, and I don’t expect that to be any different today. The O/U is 10-18 in both of their combined games and I expect to see a low scoring battle tonight also.