Do the Patriots Really Need This Win or will they play a more conservative running game?
I'm working through the slate of Sunday's game and obviously this is the biggest one on the card, but I had to pause when it occurred to me that the Patriots really don't need this game to keep home field for the playoffs. What they need is as many healthy players as they can get. I know Belichick pulled all the stops against Denver, but that was a home game and I would guess, a AFC statement game.
There's an old adage in handicapping, "No matter what the sport, if you can identify teams with a strong emotional edge you will win money."
I don't follow Belichick enough to know or remember if he ever takes his foot off the gas. I know the Pats have had a few brain farts, but I doubt this week will induce one of them. I do remember some years ago where he pulled Brady and some others the last game(s?) of the year, prior to the playoffs, but I don't know about late season games.
As for Green Bay, they need this game as they're tied with Detroit at 8-3 and it's looking like having home field advantage in the NFC could really pay off big time.
Green Bay is favored by 3 and the total is around 58 so the books are expecting a shootout, or at least they are expecting the public to bet on a shootout, but sometimes these things have a way of staying under. As Fezzik likes to say, "Big games go under."
It's just a thought I to think about.
As for remaining schedules:
New England: @ San Diego, vs Miami, @ Jets, vs Buffalo
Green Bay: vs Atlanta MNF, @ Buffalo, @ Tampa Bay, vs Detroit.
So you can see, a loss by the Pats isn't going to change much if anything.