(+7) CHICAGO (5 - 6) at DETROIT (7 - 4) - THANKSGIVING, 12:30 PM
Last 8 games in Detroit vs. Chicago series, Lions have lost only ONCE against the spread
Detroit’s Thanksgiving Struggles
Last 10 Thanksgiving games, Lions have won only 1 and covered only 1
Detroit’s Defense
Detroit’s defense stats are still strong for the season, but the Lions have now gone two full games without a sack (Nick Fairly OUT, and Suh playing a high number of snaps – DL perhaps thin and worn down)
Expect FULL effort from Lions
(Lions) NFL home teams with winning record off two straight road losses: 49-29-1 ATS (63% over last 25 seasons)
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Bears 13-5 SU vs. Lions
10 of last 21 Lions games decided by 3 points or less
Detroit (overall since 2011): 23-36-1 ATS
Chicago in last six games: outscored 114-21 in First Half
Bears in games that over/under total greater than 44: 18-45 ATS
Bears 3-12 ATS in division
Sunday: Jay Cutler threw for only 130 yards on 27 attempts
Bears LB Lance Briggs was sidelined by a groin injury, and CB Kyle Fuller departed with a knee injury
Chicago +3 turnovers (vs. TB)
Game Totals: Chicago 204 yards; Tamp Bay 367 yards
(+3) PHILADELPHIA (8 - 3) at DALLAS (8 - 3) - Thanksgiving, 4:30 PM
Underdogs
Cowboys/Eagles: Underdog has covered 23 of 31 in this series.
The underdog in Dallas games has covered 71% of the time (53-22 ATS since 2010)
When Dallas is favored after winning the last game
(giving them another reason to lose focus)
the Cowboys are 3-16 against the spread
Typically home team benefits from short week, but …
Eagles offense difficult to prepare for on a short week.
Dallas played on Sunday night, and did not leave New York till Monday morning.
Dallas defense on field for 74 snaps on Sunday. That high number could lead to fatigue on short week.
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Philly has won 15 of last 19 regular season games
Vegas ranks Philly tied for 11th in NFL. Dallas ranked #6
Eagles Josh Huff with 107 yard kickoff return on Sunday
Eagles now have 10 defensive/special teams TDs this season (most in NFL)
Vs. Tennessee: Sanchez: 30/43 for 307 yards (1/2)
Now 6 interceptions in 4 games
On a per snap basis, Dallas defense just as bad as last year – but since offense is controlling the ball, they benefit from having to defend 10 LESS snaps per game on average.
Tony Romo in November has won 26 of 31 games (SU)
Dallas: 6th home game in last 9 games (3 of last 4 on road)
Cowboys, playing within the division: 21-34 ATS
First Downs: Cowboys 18; Giants 27
Time of Possession: Dallas 25 minutes; Giants 35 minutes
DeMarco Murray has rushed for 100 yards or more 10 of 11 games this season
(+1.5) SEATTLE (7 - 4) at SAN FRANCISCO (7 - 4) - THURSDAY, 8:30 PM
Last 18 Seattle an underdog, lost against the spread only THREE TIMES
Obviously small dog here … so small as to say that Seattle is clearly the better team
Not the same Seattle team as last year
Seattle D-line big downgrade from last season
C Max Unger OUT
Home/Road
Seattle (starting in 2005): 68% ATS at home (56-26-2)
On road during same period: 40% (33-49-1)
If simply play on at home, against on road: 105-59-3 (64% winners)
Last 4 games, Russell Wilson has thrown for 211 yards once and less than 180 yards three times
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Seattle has covered 5 straight vs. San Fran
Seattle last 18 on road: 12-6 ATS
Seattle: 28-14-1 ATS overall last 43 games
(Seattle) NFC West teams as underdogs: 28-16-1 ATS
Seattle vs. Ariz: Both teams combined for only 497 yards of total offense. First 5 scores of game were FGs
Sunday: Russell Wilson had 73 yards rushing. Lynch was second leading Seattle rusher with 39 yards.
Wilson was sacked 7 times
San Frain has won only 2 games this season by a touchdown or more
49ers have lost only 9 of last 27 games ATS
SF with Harbaugh: 39-23-5 ATS overall
SF: 12-4-1 ATS vs. teams with a win percentage better than .700!
49ers gained only 66 yards rushing last week vs. Wash
SF converted a 4th and 1 on their own 34 yard line trailing with 5:28 left in game vs. Wash
SF LB Borland: team-high 8 tackles
Had 12, 18 and 17 tackles prior three weeks
Kaepernick has been sacked 21 times over the last 5 games (2 times last week)
(+9.5) WASHINGTON (3 - 8) at INDIANAPOLIS (7 - 4) - 11/30/2014, 1:00 PM
RG3
Vegas market did not react to Colt McCoy being named starter (no upgrade, no down grade)
Colt McCoy career as starter: 8-13-1 ATS
Colts Crush
Colts against losing teams, 16-3 against the spread
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Washington: 3-16 SU last 19 games
Vegas has downgraded RG3 off recent events
(lack of leadership, not maturing on field while physical skills are eroding)
RG3 last week vs. SF: 11/19 for 106 yards (0/0)
RG3 has not started and finished a Redskins victory since Week 9 of 2013 vs Chargers (Nov 3, 2013)
Washington as underdog: 6-13 ATS
(Washington) NFL road underdogs off road loss: 166-101-3 (62% since 2003)
Much better at home over Luck’s career (reg season and playoffs)
Won 18-5 SU (16-7 ATS) at home; 12-11 SU on road (13-10 ATS)
Andrew Luck: 28-15 ATS during regular season in his career
Even with Ahmad Bradshaw out, Trent Richardson did not start Sunday (Daniel Herron did)
Colts 389 total yards; Jags 194
(+6.5) TENNESSEE (2 - 9) at HOUSTON (5 - 6) - 11/30/2014, 1:00 PM
Titans Plain Bad
Titans: 3-13 ATS last 16 games
Houston’s Disappointment?
Prior excitement around Ryan Mallett could possibly result in a letdown as a result of his injury
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Texans 6-1 ATS vs. Titans
(Tennessee) NFL road underdogs off road loss: 166-101-3 (62% since 2003)
Tennessee is BAD when overmatched on the road:
as an away underdog of 5 or more,
the Titans have covered only 6 of 24 ATS
Home team in Titans games has covered only 9 of last 27
Sunday: Mettenberger: 20/39 for 345 yards (2/1)
Tennessee rushed for only 52 yards
Tennessee did not get a first down till their 5th offensive series
RB Foster was OUT vs. Cincy
Texans had 60 yard INT TD return
Time of Possession: Texans 21 minutes; Bengals 39 minutes
(+2.5) CLEVELAND (7 - 4) at BUFFALO (5 - 5) - 11/30/2014, 1:00 PM
Josh Gordon
Last Week: Josh Gordon: 8 receptions for 120 yards
Beyond Josh Gordon’s catches, he effectively stretches the field for Cleveland.
Browns averaged 5.6 yards per rush attempt on Sunday
after averaging only 2.4 yards per attempt the prior five games
Vegas ranks Browns as 2.5 points worse than average NFL team (tied for 18th)
Buffalo Disruption
Buffalo’s familiarity with Jets likely aided ability to prepare for effectively even with schedule disrupted last week. Not the case vs. Browns.
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The SU winner of the last 39 Cleveland games has covered 33 times (spread has mattered only six times)
Injuries thinning Browns D
Sunday: Browns Hoyer 23/40 for 322 yards (0/3)
Completed 20 of 50 passes last week – so less than 50% over last two weeks
Hoyer is the 1st Browns QB with consecutive 300-yd passing games since Brian Sipe in 1983
Falcons took the lead over Browns on a FG with only 44 seconds left in game
Orton’s last 38 starts: 12-26 straight-up
After no touchdowns in prior 7 quarters, Bills scored 4 offensive TDs Monday Night
Buffalo with a blocked punt TD (vs. Jets on Monday)
Bills practice schedule last week was severely affected by weather and location of game
Bills sacked Jets 7 times
(was +4, now +6) SAN DIEGO (7 - 4) at BALTIMORE (6 - 4) - 11/30/2014, 1:00 PM
Ravens strong at home
Last 56 home games, Baltimore has won 46
Road time has covered only 8 of last 28 Ravens games
SD rankings
#17 in NFL by Vegas (below average)
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SD 12-4 ATS as a regular season underdog
Under coach McCoy, when playing out of division
San Diego has lost only 5 of 18 against the spread
Vegas really like Mike McCoy - Pro bettor David Malinksy called him “a coaching legend in development”
SD intercepted Shaun Hill at the goal line with 56 seconds left to preserve the SD’s victory over St. Louis last week
Chris Watt, a rookie from Notre Dame, had his first NFL start and was the fourth player to start at center for the Chargers this season
SD had a 16 yard fumble return for TD vs. Rams. Rams had a 99 yard INT TD return.
Ravens and Saints combined for 974 yards of offense on Monday Night
Ravens with an INT TD return vs. Saints on MNF
Ravens RB Forsett 182 rushing yards on 22 carries vs. Saints
(-2.5) NY GIANTS (3 - 8) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 10) - 11/30/2014, 1:00 PM
Only 6th 3-8 team to be an away favorite in last 25 NFL season
Jags home field
Jags at home: 16-36-1 ATS (since 9/14/2008)
Giants Motivation?
Holiday weekend in Jacksonville with nothing to play for?
In Giants 8 losses this season, 6 have been by double digits
Giants likely physically worn down from playing Sea and then SF and then Dal in the last three weeks.
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Jags: 3-9 ATS last 12
Jags D has giving up 10 offense TDs in last three games. In prior four games, Jax had given up only 3 TDs.
Last Week: Jags 194 total yards; Colts 389
Jags Denard Robinson:
Sunday:14 carries for 25 yards vs. Indy
Two weeks ago: 15 carries for 60 yards vs. Dal
Combined three weeks prior: 329 yards rushing
Coach Caughlin is 60% vs. the Vegas number
on the road in his career [55-37 ATS]
First Downs: Giants 27, Cowboys 18 on Sunday
Time of Possession: Giants 35 minutes, Dallas 25 minutes
(-3.5) CINCINNATI (7 - 3 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (2 - 9) - 11/30/2014, 1:00 PM
Tampa home field
Tampa at home: 13-35 ATS at home
As a home underdog: 5-22 against the spread
Tampa Better than Record
6 of last 8 games Tampa Bay has lead in the 4th quarter
Since Bye:
TB’s D seems to be growing more comfortable with defense schedule
4th straight game TB has outgained opponents
(they had been outgained their 10 prior games)
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Road team in Cincinnati games have covered only 9 of last 30
(Cincy) NFL away favorite off game as away dog: 25-5-1 ATS (since 9/30/2012)
Bengals emerging RB Jeremy Hill:
1st game as starter: 24 carries for 154 yards
Next game: 12 rushes for 55 yards
Two Weeks ago: 27 rushes for 152 yards
Sunday: 18 carries for 87 yards
Last Week: Time of Possession: Bengals 39 minutes; Texans 21 minutes
Bengals right tackle Andre Smith injured his left biceps in the first quarter and didn't return.
AJ Green: 248 yards combined receiving last two games (only 67 yards in prior two games)
Road team in Tampa games this season: 9-2 ATS
Bucs 10-2 ATS last 10 November games
McCown starts: 1-5 ATS
Mike Glennon starts: 3-2 ATS
Vegas rates the Tampa QBs EVEN
Game Totals: TB 367 yards; Chicago 204 yards
TB gained only 66 yards rushing (only 48 yards prior week)
(+6.5) OAKLAND (1 - 10) at ST LOUIS (4 - 7) - 11/30/2014, 1:00 PM
Last 60 games, only 10th time Rams a favorite
Keep it rolling?
(Raiders) NFL team off first win (after 0-6 SU or worse start): 12-3 ATS their next game
Surging or Beat up?
Rams becoming more comfortable with Gregg Williams defensive scheme:
First five games of season, Rams had 1 sack.
Next 6 games: 21 sacks (3 on Sunday)
Rams schedule since bye:
at Philly
vs. SF
vs. Seahawks
at KC
at SF
at Cardinals
vs. Broncos
at. SD
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Raiders vs. team with losing record: 43-85-2 (since 1993)
(Raiders) NFL Team off win as home dog: 233-317-17 ATS (42% since 1994)
Raiders off first win in 368 days
Raiders had season highs in rushing attempts, rushing yards and yards per carry
Raiders have 19 TDs this season, 5 on the final drive of game when trailing by double digits.
Rams last 6 games: gaining only 260 yards per game
New QB Shaun Hill considered an upgrade for Rams. Davis is 9 years younger, so team wanted to give him ever chance to display his upside.
SD intercepted Shaun Hill at the goal line with 56 seconds left to preserve the SD’s victory over St. Louis last week
Rams had a 99 yard INT TD return. SD had a 16 yard fumble return for TD.
(+4) NEW ORLEANS (4 - 6) at PITTSBURGH (7 - 4) - 11/30/2014, 1:00 PM
Saints on Road
The road team in Saints games (coached by Sean Payton)
has covered ONLY 10 of 48 games
Vegas still ranks Saints as a better than average team
Look ahead?
Steelers have lost 14 of 15 games ATS when FAVORED the week BEFORE playing Cincinnati
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RB LeVeon Bell: 33 rushes for 204 yards (game before bye)
Time of Possession: Pitt 40 min, Tenn 20 min
First Downs: Pitt 29, Tenn 14
RB LeGarrette Blount CUT for attitude problem
Ike Taylor, Ryan Shazier, and Troy Polamalu expected back for Pittsburgh this week
4 of 7 Saints losses this season by three points or fewer
Coach Payton off a loss: 20-9 ATS
Saints with Coach Payton: 27-18-1 ATS last 46 games
Mark Ingram
MNF vs. Baltimore: 11 carries for 27 yards
Week prior: 23 carries for 67 yards
Prior 3 games: 392 yards rushing
Saints and Ravens combined for 974 yards of offense on Monday Night
Ravens with an INT TD return vs. Saints on MNF
(+2.5) CAROLINA (3 - 7 - 1) at MINNESOTA (4 - 7) - 11/30/2014, 1:00 PM
Stats Even Worse than Scores
Carolina outgained Atlanta in their last game (prior to bye)
Panthers had been outgained their prior 9 games.
Carolina O-lineman has been beat up … but some starters are now returning.
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Cam Newton rushed for 107 yards 5 games ago (more carries than all other games up to that point). The entire offense improves significantly if Newton is a true duel-threat.
The next week against GB: 7 rushes for 41 yards (5.9 average)
The next week against NO: 7 rushes for 43 yards (6.1 average)
The week against Philly: 2 rushes for 6 yards
Vs. Atlanta: 5 attempts for 30 yards
Carolina: 9-4 ATS as a road underdog
Vikings in last 7 weeks have yielded 26 sacks (2 last week)
(-2.5) ARIZONA (9 - 2) at ATLANTA (4 - 7) - 11/30/2014, 4:05 PM
Impressive Arizona Numbers
Arizona is 16-4 SU (losing only two games by more than 3 points)
Losing only 4 times against the spread
Arizona has not allowed a 100 yard rusher for 21 straight games
Arizona has 17 sacks over their last three games (after only 8 the first eight games of season)
Even so, Vegas ranks Arizona in 3-way tie for 13th in league
NOT impressive Atlanta numbers
Atlanta’s last 21 games against teams other than Tampa Bay
they’ve won only 4 times.
Atlanta has given up the most yards passing the league while face weak passing offensives (no games vs top 7 in league but five games vs. bottom 7)
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(Arizona) NFL away favorite off game as away dog: 25-5-1 ATS (since 9/30/2012)
Cards on road 43-56-4 ATS (since 2002)
Cards DC Todd Bowles receiving strong notices from Wiseguys
Arizona has outscored opponents 91 to 34 in 4th quarter this season (17 of those points came in one game against Den … so yielding less than 2 points per in 4th quarters of other ten games)
Arizona vs. Sea: Both teams combined for only 497 yards of total offense. First 5 scores of game were FGs
Arizona had only 64 total yards rushing
Larry Fitzgerald Did Not Play last week
Falcons outscored 94 to 31 in 4th quarter (last nine games)
Next game after a loss: Atlanta 28-12 ATS last 40 (7-9 ATS last 16)
Falcons gained only 63 yards rushing on Sunday
Falcons took the lead over Browns on a FG with only 44 seconds left in game
Falcons 4-0 SU in division; 0-7 out of division
(+3) NEW ENGLAND (9 - 2) at GREEN BAY (8 - 3) - 11/30/2014, 4:25 PM
Vegas ranks Patriots as best team in NFL, Green Bay as 2nd best team.
Although a few pro bettors I talked to question Green Bay’s strength of schedule
Pats getting points
As Underdog: Bill Belichick with Patriots: 41-21-1 ATS
The Patriots have won six games by at least 22 points
Patriots have lost 7 straight ATS on grass
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Pats averaging almost 40 points their last 7 games
Road team in New England games: covered only 8 of last 29 games
Pats Jonas Gray did not play Sunday (coach’s decision) – after rushing for 199 yards and 4 TDs the prior week
3rd straight victory over a division leader for Patriots
Patriots +90 turnovers last 75 regular season games
Wiseguys like to fade popular teams
but that hasn’t worked against New England
If you had bet $1000 AGAINST the Pats & Bellichick every game since Brady’s first start, you’d be DOWN $52,000!
Packers have outscored opponents 128-9 in the first half of the last four home games.
GB: playing only 1 road game in 5 week span
(-2) DENVER (8 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (7 - 4) - 11/30/2014, 8:30 PM
41th game out time of last 42 that Denver has been favored
Denver with Manning as a favorite 27-15 ATS
How good is Alex Smith?
Alex Smith last 53 games as a starter: 38-14-1 SU
Kansas City still does not have a single TD pass to a Wide Receiver this season
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Broncos since start of last season: 23-7 SU (winning 21 times by a TD or more)
Last Week: Broncos C.J. Anderson rushed for 167 yards on 27 carries
Broncos CBs Aqib Talib (hamstring) and Kayvon Webster (shoulder) left the game as did MLB Brandon Marshall (concussion).
Vegas considers KC to be good but limited … likely to struggle against elite teams that will force them to pass/play from behind at times.
Road team in KC games: 12-4 ATS
(-6.5) MIAMI (6 - 5) at NY JETS (2 - 8) - 12/1/2014, 8:30 PM
Since 2001, NFL Monday Night Home underdogs: 33-46 ATS
Vegas LOVES Miami
Miami 5-3 SU last 8 games (all three losses tough and late) … outscoring opponents by 95 points during that span.
EVERY ONE of Miami’s wins this season
have been by 13 points or more
Vegas ranks only 6 teams better than Miami
Vegas HATES Geno Smith
Geno Smith career: 19 TDs; 38 turnovers
14 of last 15 Jets losses by a TD or more
Motivation becomes a question for Jets
Vegas ranks only two teams in the NFL worse than Jets
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Road team in Miami games 62-43 ATS
Miami: LT Branden Albert OT (on IR; this will be third game without)
Jets sacked 7 times by Bills
Jets threw for a total of 126 yards vs. Bills
Buffalo with a blocked punt TD (vs. Jets on Monday)
Regarding Monday’s game: "That was a horrible performance," Jets coach Rex Ryan said. "We didn't block, we didn't tackle, we didn't do anything."