It’s easy to to make assessments based on small samples. It’s also the ultimate fool’s gold at times. All one needs to do is scan the weekly NFL QB ratings and you’ll see what I mean.
If you were to just go by what we saw yesterday, Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton would have zero detractors and they’d be making space for a plaque with his name and achievements in Canton. Peyton Manning, on the other hand, would be deemed ready for retirement as he had a rough time of it against the Rams as Denver was stunned at St. Louis.
Obviously, those two were outliers. Dalton is very likely going to remain a study in inconsistency. Manning will go back to Denver and prepare to make life tough on the visiting Dolphins. But that doesn’t mean short term should be completely ignored, as it can create some good betting opportunities the very next week.
I’m a believer in the big bounce. That’s basically a horse racing term, but it applies to humans as well. When a player has a game that’s far above or far below his norm, there’s a reasonable expectation that can be made that said player will regress or progress to his norm the very next game. Obviously this cannot be chiseled in granite, but it’s a variable that I will almost always factor into the equation when sizing up what that player and his team will do in the next game.
There’s also something to be said for a downturn or upgrade that begins to take on a consistent pattern. Cam Newton falls into this category. The Panthers QB has been average or worse for several weeks in succession now. This doesn’t mean that Newton cannot suddenly break out and have a big game. But the game by game chart says it’s getting less and less likely to happen.
That brings me to the question of the week. As lousy as they’ve been, the Panthers still have a legit shot at the playoffs. That sounds ludicrous considering they’re 3-7-1. But in the brutally awful NFC South, they’re one game out of first place. So the season is far from over for Carolina. If I’m the coach, I’m going to give strong consideration to giving the ball to Derek Anderson in an effort to catch lightning in a bottle.
I understand that this goes against all conventional NFL wisdom. But the team really does have a chance to get to the post season thanks to its divisional residence. Newton is playing some really lousy football, and it’s not necessarily the people around him. He’s just not doing a good job right now. I think some of that is the fact he’s playing hurt. Okay, that’s maybe even more reason to roll the dice for one week with Anderson and see what happens. At the very least, Newton gets a week to mend and maybe that gets him stronger for the stretch run.
This is all a moot point as Carolina has next week off and there’s zero chance Newton won’t be under center when the Panthers return to action November 30 at Minnesota. But if I’m the coach and Newton comes out of the gate slowly against the Vikings, I’m sitting the star and putting Anderson in the huddle. It’s all about giving my team its best chance to win, and not about soothing egos. And with Ron Rivera on what would appear to be thin ice as the Panthers head coach, I can’t think of a single good reason not to pull out all the stops at this point.
Do you still have faith in Cam Newton?
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