Admittedly, I'm not comfortable with this game. Chicago needs this game more than New England. They are in a spot where their backs are against the wall in the NFC North. They will have the luxury of knowing whether Detroit wins Sunday morning or not...
That being said, Chicago has a statistically significant advantage in run defense DVOA (adjusted for opponent) over NE's run offense DVOA at a clip of +29%.... While New England has a significant advantage in Pass O DVOA over Chi Pass D DVOA (+34%).... The other two matchups are fairly neutral in terms of DVOA but definitely favor Chicago... Chicago wins 3rd down advantage (both sides of the ball)... However New England is at home..
ELO ratings have NE at a value of +4.6 pts over the Supercontest Spread of 5.5(w home field included) ... Fezzik has NE as a 3.5 value over the 5.5 spread on NE (9 pts total w home field) while my own ratings only have NE at a 0.2 advantage over Chi (with home field included)....
I believe New England will win with the "next man up" attitude on 10 days rest at home with fill-ins on the D-line and linebacker... 27-21 or 24-21... Revis will handle Marshall under 50 yards.... Collins will draw a tough matchup with Bennett... Forte will get HIS...
New England in Foxborough is still something magical, beyond numbers and matchups... I don't know why.
I'm not betting the game but this is a game NE always wins... They'll seal it with 3 mins in the 4th. Don't ask why...
- A Patriots Apoligist and Analytical Bast*rd... welcome to all opinions and interpretations