2014 NFL Record
21 – 20 @ -0.8 Units
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Week 8:
#1: Teaser (6.5 pts) – PENDING
Denver Broncos -2.5 / Miami Dolphins +0.5
#2: Baltimore Ravens -1
The two years prior to 2014, the team that won the first meeting in this matchup lost the second one. Typically these AFC North foes do a good job of making adjustments and playing better in a ‘revenge’ scenario. Well, that’s what the Ravens are facing in week 8. They lost to Cincy in week 1 but that game was very close. Bengals got out to a 15-0 halftime lead, but the Ravens roared back and took a 16-15 lead with under 6 minutes left in the game. Of course, a 77-yard AJ Green TD later and it was all she wrote. I don’t expect AJ Green to play in week 8. He’s missed all practices so far and reports out of Cincy are that he is very unlikely to suit up. Bengals are decimated with injuries at their receiver positions, as they’re missing Green, Jones, and Eifert. Last week their leading receiver was Gresham who had 10 catches but only for 48 yards. That’s just not going to get it done. Colts held Cincy to 135 yards of total offense, as Dalton averaged 3.3 PY/A on his 38 attempts and the run game was at 2.7 RY/C. Cincy had ZERO turnovers in the game so it’s not like they kept giving the ball away. It was just that they were totally incompetent offensively, going 1 for 13 on 3rd down conversions and averaging 2.5 YPP. By comparison, this defense allowed 6.5 YPP to Luck and Co. Cincy’s 37 point explostion against Carolina was very flucky, as the Panthers rank 29th defensively this year. Prior to that, Cincy put up only 17 points on the 16th ranked Patriots D. This week, they’ll take on a Baltimore team that ranks 6th defensively. This team ranks top-10 against both the run and the pass, and I expect it to be very difficult for the Bengals to move the ball offensively once again. My model has Ravens by 4 points in this one, and though I missed on +1.5, I’ll grab the -1 before it moves any further.
#3: Indianapolis Colts -3 @ -120
I was not impressed with Steelers at all on Monday Night. They were down 13-0 before Houston just totally fell apart, and allowed Pittsburgh to score 24 points in the final 3 minutes of the first half. After a Steelers 35-yard bomb for their first TD and a 13-10 deficit, Houston proceeded to fumble the ball and then throw a pick on two consecutive possessions inside their own 20-yard line. Steelers grabbed the 11-point lead and held on to win, but this was the case of the Texans giving the game away than Pittsburgh actually winning it on their own. Houston outgained Pittsburgh 6.2 YPP to 5.3, Fitzpatrick actually averaged a higher PY/A average than Roethlisberger (8.2 vs 8.0), and overall this mediocre Houston team seemed to be exactly on the same level as the Steelers throughout this game. The problem for Pittsburgh is that Indy is NOT mediocre. Colts come into this one ranking 5th in overall efficiency with a top-10 offense (#8), top-10 D (#9), and top-10 ST’s (#4). They’re not just dominating mediocre opponents like JAX and TEN, but they’re beating playoff contenders like BAL and CIN with ease. By comparison, Steelers have lost to a bad Tampa team at home, needed a pick-6 just to put away a bad Jags team, got demolished by CLE two weeks ago, and now barely survived a bad HOU team at home. Remember when Pittsburgh got totally smoked by a top-5 Baltimore team in week 2? I believe we’ll see a similar outcome against the Colts as well.
#4: Green Bay Packers +1.5
While people are worried about fading the Saints at home, I’m going to flat out take the much better team in this contest. Saints are 2-0 at home, but big deal! They scored 20 at home against Minnesota (30th ranked team), who stayed in the game pretty much to the end. Then they needed OT to dispatch of a really bad Tampa squad. Losses to ATL and to CLE early in the year stood out even more, as those teams are two of the worst defensive teams in the league. If New Orleans can’t defeat teams that stink defensively, how are they going to compete against offensive juggernauts like the Packers, teams that can actually put up points? Well, we actually have a frame of reference, as the Saints got demolished against the Cowboys, team that ranks 3rd in offensive efficiency this season. Dallas scored on 6 of their 10 drives, averaged 6.8 YPP, and converted 8 of their 14 3rd down attempts. The Saints had some fumbles early that put them in a 24-0 halftime hole from which they just couldn’t recover. I’m sure the score would have been closer if not for the turnovers, but I want to emphasize the fact that this Saints’ 32nd (dead last) ranked D just couldn’t stop an elite offensive team like Dallas. Well, Packers rank 2nd in offensive efficiency. Their 4th ranked passing-O is going to go up against Saints’ 30th ranked passing-D, one of the biggest mismatches this weekend. In addition, Green Bay has the 6th best passing-D so far this season a key factor when facing a team like New Orleans. It should be easier for the Packers as Jimmy Graham is still severely limited and I don’t expect him to be 100% this Sunday. I know that New Orleans has been very dominant at home over the years, but this is just not the same team. Packers are an elite squad while the Saints are very mediocre. I’ll back the much better team as an underdog in this spot.
Good Luck