Monday, Oct. 13
One game left on the Week 6 menu that had some of the worst bad beats I've ever seen. Those unfortunate enough to have had the Jets and Redskins know what I speak of.
OK, on to the Week 7 card:
Jets at Patriots (Thursday) - Geno Smith may be the most ripped guy in the posting forum. Smith's career numbers are 18 touchdowns and 35 turnovers. Last year, these two division rivals played each other twice in the first seven weeks of the season. The Jets nearly upset the Patriots at Foxboro losing 13-10 in Week 2 and then upsetting New England, 30-27, in Week 7. It was the third time in the last four meetings the Jets have covered in the series. Since that defeat to the Patriots, though, the Jets have lost 12 times - all by a touchdown or more. They are a difficult team to get behind with a beat-up secondary and an offense with little back-door ability.
Bengals at Colts - The Colts are tough to fade at home where they have covered 77 percent of their last 22 games. The Bengals are 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 road games and probably aren't going to have A.J. Green again this week. Andrew Luck has five more touchdown passes than the next closest quarterback and also leads the NFL in passing yards. He's my choice as MVP at this stage of the season.
Titans at Redskins - I'm surprise this throwaway matchup hasn't been switched to London since the poor Brits already have gotten a dose of the Raiders and later on will be subjected to the Jaguars. Do you want to lay points with a Redskins squad that has dropped 13 of their last 14, or take points with a Titan team that is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11? I'd rather do neither.
Dolphins at Bears - Chicago is a gutsy club. The Bears held the Falcons to one touchdown in the Georgia Dome while down their top four linebackers. Chicago has won three of its four road games this year, but is just 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 games at Solider Field. The Dolphins have been reinforced with four of its better players - running back Knowshon Moreno, offensive lineman Mike Pouncey, linebacker Koa Misi and safety Reshad Jones.
Browns at Jaguars - I'm not going to get sucked into a guessing game on when the Jaguars win their first game, which may not even happen. All I know is the Browns haven't lost against the spread when Brian Hoyer has been their quarterback. The count is up to eight.
Seahawks at Rams - The Seahawks actually have a better ATS mark away from CenturyLink Field with their inflated home spreads covering 12 of their past 15 road/neutral site matchups.
Panthers at Packers - Sure Aaron Rodgers is great, but his team isn't. So I'm surprised this line opened as high as it did especially with both of the Packers' starting cornerbacks leaving this past Sunday's game against the Dolphins with injuries. Cam Newton finally looks well accounting for 391 passing/rushing yards against the Bengals on the road.
Falcons at Ravens - Matt Ryan has never played in Baltimore. But he has stunk in a lot of other road venues. Ryan's numbers in his last 10 away games read 18 touchdown passes, 20 interceptions, two lost fumbles, 24 sacks and a 72.8 quarterback rating. If you're into trends and angles here's one to grab your attention: Baltimore is 14-1 in its last 15 home games versus NFC opponents.
Vikings at Bills - Has there been a more disappointing player than Cordarrelle Patterson? Yes and his name is C.J. Spiller. The Bills have been held to under 100 yards rushing in their last four games. Teddy Bridgewater is a work in progress. He doesn't have a lot of weapons at his disposal especially with Patterson's disappearing act. But at least Bridgewater has upside. Kyle Orton is Kyle Orton, he of the 9-24 record in his last 33 starts.
Saints at Lions - Jim Schwartz is drawing praise for the work he's done as Buffalo's defensive coordinator. But the Lions' defense never was this good under Schwartz - ranking either first or second in the top four major categories. Impossible to accurately handicap this game right now with the status of Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush and Jimmy Graham unclear.
Chiefs at Chargers - The Chargers have covered 10 of their last 12. Their defense is underrated and Philip Rivers is having another big year under Mike McCoy with a 15-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. But on the other hand, I'm not looking to fade the rested Chiefs, who have been playing well. Andy Reid is the best coach off a bye with a 13-2 lifetime mark.
Giants at Cowboys - Even with this being a division game, the Cowboys could be fat and happy after upsetting the Seahawks in Seattle and seeing how bad the Giants looked against the Eagles. The Giants had won four straight years in Dallas until losing last season. The Giants have a bye after this matchup. Then their next three games are against the Colts, Seahawks in Seattle and 49ers before playing the Cowboys again.
Cardinals at Raiders - The Raiders looked much better under Tony Sparano, especially on offense. Was it just one game, though? The Cardinals have managed to go 4-1 despite missing six key defenders from last season and outscoring their opponents by only 10 points. Carson Palmer and his left tackle Jared Veldheer will be filling in Bruce Arians about their former team. Oh the horror stories they probably can tell.
49ers at Broncos - As long as they are not at Seattle, the 49ers usually have proven to be quite bankable on the road and as underdogs. However, Denver is 17-2 at home since Peyton Manning joined the Broncos. Manning has fired 59 touchdown passes in those 19 games.
Texans at Steelers (Monday) - It's too early to seriously handicap this game. But it's not too early to vent about Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley. Why do teams keep hiring this guy? The Steelers run when they should pass and visa versa. Look, Le'Veon Bell is a nice back. But I disagree with the fantasy football pundits who rate him in the top five. The Steelers should be a pass-first team with Ben Roethlisberger still in his prime and Antonio Brown's emergence as a stud wide receiver. The Steelers could have jumped out early to a touchdown lead or more against the Browns, but Haley sidetracked them by stubbornly continually running the ball.
On the handicapping front, for the first time I have Triple Star plays on both the side and total on tonight's NFL 49ers-Rams matchup. The plays can be found here: /pregamepros/pro-bettor/bettor.aspx?id=7746#capper.
As always, let's have no bad luck!