Tuesday, Sept. 30
Enough early money has come in to make the Cincinnati Bengals a road favorite against the New England Patriots. The last time the Patriots were home 'dogs was 2005 against Peyton Manning's Colts.
The marketplace is telling the oddsmaker to stop overrating the Patriots. The marketplace is right.
The Patriots last won a Super Bowl in 2004. They've won three playoff games in six years.
This isn't an overreaction from the Patriots' 41-14 Monday night humiliation to the Chiefs, who had lost eight of their previous 11 games before that matchup. It's a statement that Tom Brady isn't an elite quarterback anymore and New England's offense has serious problems.
Brady is 37. He started to lose his fastball and accuracy on his deep passes last year finishing 16th in the passer ratings. It's worse this season. Brady ranks 29th in the quarterback rankings, one place behind recently benched E.J. Manuel. Brady is averaging a meager 5.7 yards per attempt, down nearly two full yards from his career average of 7.4.
Bill Belichick didn't do Brady any favors giving Logan Mankins away for a spare part tight end. The Patriots' offensive line remains in flux without long-time mainstay Mankins.
Brady doesn't have very good weapons either. Rob Gronkowski isn't anywhere near 100 percent. Any time you have Brandon LaFell in your lineup you're hurting at wide receiver. Stevan Ridley isn't powerful enough to be a good inside runner and isn't quick enough to be an outside threat while Shane Vereen is a better pass catcher than runner.
The Bengals enter this game off a bye and catch New England on a short week. However, Cincinnati is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 road games and always seems to choke whenever it has a chance to make a strong statement.
So this isn't an endorsement of the Bengals. But I won't be on the Patriots either. My faith in Brady is gone.