Monday, Sept. 29
Here is my first look at the Week 5 NFL card.
Vikings-Packers (Thursday): Vikings better off with Teddy Bridgewater, but Aaron Rodgers off one of his best performances, which is saying a lot. Rodgers owns a 26-to-4 touchdown-to-interception career mark against the Vikings. Green Bay ranks last in run defense, but doesn't have to worry about Adrian Peterson.
Bears-Panthers: Carolina in danger of going in free fall. The Panthers' defense isn't dominant anymore and there is no one healthy who's any good who can run the ball. Martellus Bennett is becoming a stud and Jay Cutler on pace to throw for 40 touchdowns and more than 4,000 yards. Nice job Marc Trestman.
Browns-Titans: "Checkdown Charlie" Whitehurst should be Jake Locker's agent since he's done more to boost Locker's stock. The Titans haven't covered in their last seven home games. I just cut Justin Hunter from my fantasy team.
Rams-Eagles: Jeff Fisher-coached teams are 59 percent ATS as underdogs. The Rams have an NFL-low one sack, though, after recording 53 last year. The Eagles get offensive right tackle Lane Johnson back from suspension, which has to help LeSean McCoy. He's putting up Ray Rice figures with 39 yards rushing on 29 carries in his last two games.
Falcons-Giants: Regardless if the Giants have turned the corner or not, I want no part of Atlanta in an outdoor road game. The Falcons gave up 558 yards to the Vikings and a rookie quarterback making his first start and playing without Adrian Peterson and Kyle Rudolph. The shame of it.
Buccaneers-Saints: Gerald McCoy and Michael Johnson are back and Mike Glennon gives the Buccaneers a vertical dimension they lacked with Josh McCown. But I'm not looking to fade the Saints at home where they have covered 69 percent in their last 52 games at the Superdome. New Orleans has averaged 41.5 points in its last two home games against the Bucs, who will be playing in their third consecutive road game.
Texans-Cowboys: It took four years, but Jason Garrett finally discovered the way to win is ride DeMarco Murray. Dallas is 3-11 ATS as home chalk, but Ryan Fitzpatrick has no chance if Arian Foster and Andre Johnson aren't going to play. Foster looked to be running at only half-speed battling a hamstring injury.
Bills-Lions: E.J. Manuel is at his most brutal on the road, but this is where maybe the Stephen Tulloch sack dance injury bites Detroit as Buffalo can run the ball. Of the Bills' last 19 losses, only seven have come by more than seven points.
Ravens-Colts: I don't know if I could win the argument, but at least I could present the case of Andrew Luck being the best quarterback in football. Indy is 15-4 SU, 13-5-1 ATS at home during the Luck era.
Steelers-Jaguars: A word of advice: Do not play the Jaguars until they've covered a game.
Cardinals-Broncos: Not only should the Cardinals get back Carson Palmer, but also Antonio Cromartie. Denver, though, has covered 72 percent as a regular season home favorite since 2012.
Chiefs-49ers: The Chiefs have to travel cross-country on a short week. The 49ers are well-acquainted with Alex Smith. San Francisco's run defense is giving up 2.4 yards per rush in its last three games.
Jets-Chargers: Geno Smith has the touch of a butcher. If you want Rex Ryan gone than Geno is your man. His seven turnovers are killing the Jets. Maybe getting out of New York for their first trip to California since 2011 will relieve the pressure for the Jets.
Bengals-Patriots: Here's an opportunity for the Bengals to present their case for being the best team in the AFC. The Bengals are off a bye while New England is on a short week. Marvin Jones should be back to bolster Cincy's receiving group.
Seahawks-Redskins (Monday): Mike Shanahan should have to watch this game in prison for his decisions to not yank Robert Griffin III when these two teams last met during a playoff game two years ago. The Redskins are 4-10 ATS the past 14 times they've been 'dogs.
On the handicapping front, I have just my second Monday Night NFL game going today. I am 5-2 on my paid/free NFL plays during the past two weeks and have a 15-5 record the past three plus years on games involving the New England Patriots. My Patriots-Chiefs play can be found here: /pregamepros/pro-bettor/bettor.aspx?id=7746#capper.
As always, no bad luck!