I've seen some good posters on this also, and I really like TB + 7.5 against PIT on Sunday.
Tampa Bay is undervalued because they are 0-3 and because one of those losses was a Thursday Night game where Matt Ryan lit them up in route to a 56-14 beating. A couple of early turnovers in that game cost TB the momentum, and with a young team on the road facing a talented, hungry, division-rival the score can get lopsided very quickly. The other two losses were close (20-14 to CAR and 19-17 to STL) and playing away from Raymond James Stadium could actually be good for them since an underperforming team will feel the pressure from the home crowd.
PIT is overvalued in this spot because of the SNF game where they beat CAR 37-19, but Carolina had the momentum in that game up until the punt-returner fumbled in the third quarter. PIT barely beat CLE 30-27 and their offense looked horrible against BAL.
Thursday night games, MNF, and SNF are all stand alone games that have large audiences, and both PIT and TB last played on Sunday and Thursday night so the lopsided scores in those games will influence the next week's numbers more than they normally would and more than they should. If bettors were given the chance to bet TB +7.5 in this game before kickoff in week 1, most of them would have taken it.
TB +7.5 - 3%